On The Market Redfin Forecast Signals Softening, Housing Market Reaches “Tipping Point”
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Jun 9, 2025 Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research at Redfin, breaks down the latest housing market trends, predicting a 1% decline in home prices by year-end. He discusses the shifting dynamics of buyer-seller ratios and regional variations, highlighting challenges in states like Florida. The conversation delves into the impacts of rising supply and declining demand, as well as the effects of macroeconomic factors like tariffs on construction costs. Zhao also touches on the decline in asking rents and how these trends are shaping the future of real estate investments.
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Nationwide Buyer’s Market Emerges
- A national tipping point signals a buyer's market with 34% more sellers than buyers.
- This ratio is the highest in at least 13 years, predicting a 1% price drop by year-end.
Price Lag Behind Buyer-Seller Ratio
- Median sale price lags buyer-seller ratio changes by 3-6 months.
- This lag explains why prices are up now but expected to fall soon.
Seller Price Expectations Adjusting
- Median list price remains up while median sale price declines, increasing their gap.
- Sellers initially overprice, then adjust through price drops and concessions.