Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Mark shares insights from Europe on how the U.S. election could impact global economies. The team analyzes market reactions to recent economic events and discusses the concept of 'vibecession,' highlighting the gap between economists and the public. Anxiety among young consumers in Europe is explored, along with perceptions about tariffs and trade negotiations. The hosts also touch on holiday sales predictions and the importance of transparency in economic data, all while enjoying some lighthearted moments, including a dog's cameo.

Dante joins the podcast to discuss the October employment report. The impact of recent strikes and hurricanes weighed on the headline jobs figure, but everyone agrees that underlying job growth remains strong. Cris and Mark debate the reasons why productivity growth in the U.S. has outpaced the rest of the world, but Dante remains skeptical that recent productivity success is sustainable.Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Se nior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum and former Director of the Congressional Budget Office, shares sharp insights on the intersections of tariffs, immigration, and national debt. He explores how proposed immigration reforms could impact the economy and the Federal Reserve's balancing act amidst inflation. The discussion also digs into the political ramifications of upcoming elections, particularly regarding a divided Congress and its effect on fiscal policies and the debt limit. Holtz-Eakin's expertise provides a compelling view of the current economic landscape.

Ben Harris, Director of Economic Studies at Brookings and former economic advisor, discusses the contentious 2024 election landscape. He evaluates the economic policies of Vice President Harris and former President Trump, illustrating how their differing agendas could shape future governance. Harris highlights inflation trends, the impact of price gouging proposals, and the complexities of capital gains taxation. The conversation also delves into the significance of renewable energy amid geopolitical tensions and the importance of addressing housing supply challenges for first-time buyers.

Matt Colyar and Adam “Hurricane” Kamins join the podcast to discuss this week’s inflation data and the economic impact of Hurricane Milton. The team parses the latest CPI report and debates whether inflation is “sticky” or “moderating”.  Adam discusses his work on estimating the economic damage from the recent string of devastating hurricanes. The team also discusses the potential longer-term fallout on housing and migration in storm-prone areas like Florida.  For the paper on the impact of homeowners insurance on housing affordability click hereGuest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsGuest: Adam Kamins - Senior Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Mark and Cris are joined by Dante and Michael Strain, Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.  Dante kicks things off with a detailed summary of the stronger than expected U.S. employment report for September. Buoyant wage growth and upward revisions to July and August’s numbers confirm that the economy remains healthy.  The discussion then pivoted to the presidential election with Michael making a strong case for status quo economic policies and divided government.Check out Michael's Strain's Book: The American Dream Is Not DeadGuest: Michael R. Strain - Director of Economic Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute (AEI)Guest: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Is this the best economy ever? Given the big revisions to GDP and the steady stream of other stellar economic data, the Inside Economics team makes the case that it is.  Moderating inflation, full employment, stronger savings rates and steady corporate profits point to an economy that is stronger than consumer confidence suggests. The team also discusses the latest economic proposals from the presidential campaign and a recent opinion piece comparing Mark’s forecasts to those of Punxsutawney Phil. Editor’s note: Punxsutawney Phil has also been unfairly mischaracterized by the media. https://www.axios.com/2023/01/28/groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-spring-winterGuest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Martin Wurm, Director of Economic Research at Moody’s Analytics, shares insights on the Fed's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut. He discusses the balancing act the Fed must perform between inflation and employment. The conversation dives into the impact of these cuts on the housing market, revealing a surge in mortgage applications. Wurm emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence amidst political influences, while the team plays a fun statistics game, unraveling the mysteries behind a striking 14.2% figure linked to the economy.

The Inside Economics team breaks down the latest inflation data -- August’s consumer price index. They unpack the underlying components, focusing most of their attention on the confounding acceleration in shelter inflation. “Eggflation” makes a return to the podcast as well. Nevertheless, U.S. inflation has cooled considerably, and the Fed is set to start lowering their policy rate at next week’s meeting. What will that mean for U.S. consumers and businesses? Finally, Marisa takes some listener questions and Matt reads some (mostly positive) reviews of the Inside Economics podcast.  Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

The Inside Economics crew gathers in Southern California for an early morning reaction to the August jobs report, which they all concur is “pretty good”. They discuss the implications of slowing job growth for the Fed’s upcoming meetings as well as the presidential election. Finally, they all give their odds for a recession occurring in the next year—Cris remains the bear of the group. Guest: Dante DeAntonio - Senior Director, Economic ResearchHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.