Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Justin Begley, a federal fiscal policy expert at Moody's Analytics, joins the discussion on the economic implications of a smaller government under the incoming Trump administration. The conversation examines the proposed agency DOGE and its regulatory agenda, questioning how deregulation could affect economic growth. They also tackle the complexities of immigration policies, the relationship between mergers and acquisitions and wealth distribution, and the soaring number of federal regulations, debating their costs versus benefits in the current economic landscape.

Professor Alice Kassens, an expert in health and labor economics from Roanoke College, shares her innovative approach to teaching using podcasts. She discusses how her students engage with economic data and debate its implications. The conversation dives into the impacts of a potential government shutdown on the economy and financial markets. Kassens also highlights the disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual economic statistics, shedding light on the anxieties faced by the younger generation in the job market.

Alan Blinder, a Princeton professor and former Fed Vice Chair, shares fascinating insights on the recent Fed rate cuts amidst economic uncertainty. He discusses the decline in job finding rates, especially for immigrant workers, and critiques corporate tax cuts. Blinder reflects on the historical compromise of Fed independence during Nixon's presidency, revealing its lasting implications. The conversation also touches on the balance of monetary policy against evolving political landscapes and the resilience of the economy despite challenges ahead.

Matt Colyar, Assistant Director at Moody's Analytics, shares his insights on inflation data and its impact on interest rates. The conversation highlights persistent inflation challenges, particularly in food and housing. They discuss the Federal Reserve's strategies amidst a strong economy and the potential for interest rate hikes. Additionally, the impact of recent hurricanes on vehicle prices and the relationship between inflation metrics and economic indicators take center stage, making for a rich economic analysis.

Mark, Cris, and Marisa are joined by their colleague Adam Kamins and his infamous closet doors, along with Rebecca Rockey, Deputy Chief Economist at Cushman Wakefield, and Chris Leinberger, Managing Director at Places Platform. Rebecca and Chris review key takeaways from their recent study, Reimagining Cities-Disrupting the Urban Doom Loop. Among the variety of topics covered are the importance of Walkable Urban places; the optimal mix of work, live, and play in cities; how to ensure that the commercial real estate mix aligns with the post-pandemic evolution of downtowns; and Mark’s prowess in pickleball and the possibly made-up sport of wallyball.Guest: Rebecca Rockey, Deputy Chief Economist and Global Head of Forecasting, Cushman & WakefieldGuest: Chris Leinberger, Managing Director and Co-Founding Partner, Places PlatformGuest: Adam Kamins, Senior Director of Economic Research, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, joins the hosts to dive into the latest U.S. employment report for November. They discuss the job market's recovery after recent disruptions and its implications for monetary policy. The conversation highlights concerns around wage growth and inflation while maintaining an optimistic outlook for productivity. Insights into the reliability of job market statistics and the impact of rising unemployment rates in certain communities add depth, concluding with speculations on future economic trends.

Scott Hoyt, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, brings keen insights into the dynamics of the American consumer as the holiday shopping season approaches. The discussion delves into rising credit delinquency rates and their implications amid inflationary pressures. They explore shifting consumer spending patterns, highlighting the disparity between high and low-income households. Political influences on consumer confidence and the effects of tariffs are examined, alongside the changing landscape of holiday shopping and retail challenges.

Jonathon Hazell, an Assistant Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, shares his insights on inflation's complexities. He explains the surprising stability of inflation before the pandemic and the factors driving its rise recently. Hakell discusses the public's heightened sensitivity to inflation compared to unemployment, questioning the Fed's approach to monetary policy. The chat also probes into how incoming Trump administration policies may impact inflation trends, alongside a light-hearted take on unconventional Thanksgiving dinner choices.

The Inside Economics team assesses the inflation statistics, and why there is no going back to the where prices were prior to fallout from the pandemic and Russian war in Ukraine. And while inflation has largely been quelled, President-elect Trump’s tariff, immigration and other policies threaten to fan inflation anew.  There is also the stats game and listener questions. Guest: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Chris Avallone, Head of Merchant Banking at Amherst Group, brings his expertise to dissect the tangled web of the housing market. He delves into the "lock-in" effect that's tethering homeowners to low rates and the "lock-out" dilemma faced by aspiring buyers. Chris offers insights on how local governments can tweak zoning laws to unlock the market, and explores stats about overvalued homes. The conversation wraps with predictions on what lies ahead for housing affordability and the need to tackle the ongoing crisis.