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Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

The Fed Hits Pause

Jan 31, 2025
Discover the latest findings on the equilibrium long-term interest rate and how it relates to the Fed's recent pause in adjusting rates. The discussion navigates through recent economic data, revealing insights on GDP growth, consumer spending, and inflation trends. Delve into the implications of the Fed's balance sheet normalization and the dynamics of Quantitative Tightening. Uncertainties around tariffs and immigration policies also shape the exploration of future monetary policy directions, making for an enlightening conversation.
59:44

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Quick takeaways

  • The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate changes stems from ongoing inflation concerns despite generally positive economic indicators.
  • Consumer resilience is evident from the 2.8% rise in spending, which counters the mixed impacts of investments and inventory fluctuations on GDP growth.

Deep dives

Data Overview and GDP Insights

The economic data released this week showed that fourth-quarter GDP growth was at 2.3%, a decrease from the previous quarter’s 3.1%. This decline can be attributed partly to fluctuations in consumer spending, which still rose by 2.8%, indicating strong consumer resilience. Notably, non-residential investment negatively impacted GDP, whereas housing made a slight positive contribution. The overall results highlight a consumer-led growth pattern, despite challenges in investment and inventory changes.

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