Discover the latest findings on the equilibrium long-term interest rate and how it relates to the Fed's recent pause in adjusting rates. The discussion navigates through recent economic data, revealing insights on GDP growth, consumer spending, and inflation trends. Delve into the implications of the Fed's balance sheet normalization and the dynamics of Quantitative Tightening. Uncertainties around tariffs and immigration policies also shape the exploration of future monetary policy directions, making for an enlightening conversation.
The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate changes stems from ongoing inflation concerns despite generally positive economic indicators.
Consumer resilience is evident from the 2.8% rise in spending, which counters the mixed impacts of investments and inventory fluctuations on GDP growth.
Uncertainties surrounding immigration policy and tariffs significantly complicate the Fed's approach to monetary policy and inflation projections moving forward.
Deep dives
Data Overview and GDP Insights
The economic data released this week showed that fourth-quarter GDP growth was at 2.3%, a decrease from the previous quarter’s 3.1%. This decline can be attributed partly to fluctuations in consumer spending, which still rose by 2.8%, indicating strong consumer resilience. Notably, non-residential investment negatively impacted GDP, whereas housing made a slight positive contribution. The overall results highlight a consumer-led growth pattern, despite challenges in investment and inventory changes.
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve opted to maintain its current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its recent meeting, marking the first time in 40 meetings that rates were not cut. The decision reflects ongoing concerns about inflation, which remains above the Fed's target despite a generally healthy economic landscape. Fed Chair Powell indicated that the strategy moving forward will involve a careful assessment of incoming data before determining future policy adjustments. With inflation not yet under control, the Fed remains committed to a restrained monetary policy until clearer signs emerge.
Inflation Metrics and Their Implications
Recent metrics indicate that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator rose to 2.6%, reflecting a steady inflationary trend above the Fed's 2% target. Although durable goods prices experienced a decline, service prices increased, suggesting mixed signals in inflation dynamics. The labor market remains robust, but challenges persist, leaving the Fed with a refrain from immediate rate cuts. The interplay between various economic factors raises concerns about future inflation trajectories, especially in light of potential tariff impacts.
Uncertainty in Economic Projections
Factors such as immigration policy and tariffs have introduced uncertainties that the Fed must navigate carefully regarding their inflationary and growth effects. As discussions around fiscal policy and regulatory changes continue, it becomes increasingly difficult for the Fed to predict how these changes will ultimately impact economic performance. Subsequently, the Fed has opted for a wait-and-see approach, allowing the evolving economic context to guide future decisions. Economists emphasize the importance of continuous evaluation of inflation dynamics and employment markets in shaping these decisions.
Future Rate Projections and Economic Sentiment
The economic outlook suggests that interest rates may remain on hold in the near term, potentially shifting only towards slight adjustments later in the year. Projections from economists indicate a possibility of rate cuts, but this is contingent on other macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation. The balance of risks suggests that if inflation rises due to external policy changes, the Fed may need to reconsider its current path. However, the general sentiment leans towards maintaining current rates until a more definitive trend in economic variables is observed.
After a brief rundown of the week's solid economic data, the Inside Economics team is joined by Moody’s Analytics colleague Martin Wurm to discuss the Fed’s recent pause and the path of monetary policy for the rest of the year. Martin breaks down how we should think about the equilibrium long-term interest rate and, in turn, the fed funds rate. The team also discusses the possible scenarios for the Fed this year, given the uncertainty around tariff and immigration policy.
Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics
Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn
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