Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

In this discussion, Scott Abrahams, a professor of economics at LSU, and Frank Levy, a strategy expert at Duke, tackle the complex impact of generative AI on labor markets and urban economies. They ponder whether AI will enhance or threaten job security and how it affects the value of college degrees. The duo reveals intriguing shifts in migration patterns, highlighting which cities might thrive, like Savannah, and which, including San Francisco, might face challenges. Their insights offer a glimpse into the future of work amid technological transformation.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, joins the hosts to analyze the latest job reports and economic indicators. They discuss the challenges in the U.S. labor market, from federal employee leave impacts to rising unemployment claims. The conversation highlights troubling trends in layoffs, particularly in tech, and explores the implications of tariff policies on consumer confidence. They provide insights on recession probabilities while painting a vivid picture of the economy as a 'thorny wilting rose,' with mixed signals and uncertainties ahead.

Richard Barkham, Senior Economic Advisor at CBRE, joins the podcast to discuss the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy. Richard is decidedly more sanguine than the podcast hosts. Mark, Cris and Marisa also discuss the economic team’s recent win for Most Accurate U.S. Forecast for 2023-2024 by Consensus Economics. They debate how much of the win can be chalked up to skill, luck, or the Chief Economist.Guest: Richard Barkham – Senior Economic Advisor, CBREHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Celebrate four years of insightful discussions! The hosts dive into listener questions about the global trade war, tariffs, and the evolving dynamics of the dollar and bond markets. They also tackle the complexities of immigration and innovation in driving economic growth and critique the impact of tariffs on productivity. Amid rising energy prices, they analyze the intertwined effects of U.S.-China supply chain dependencies and the potential for a recession. Tune in for smart insights on economic trends and listener-driven discussions!

Jared Bernstein, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under Joe Biden, weighs in on global economic turbulence and the nuances of the U.S.-China trade war. Martin Wurm shares insights on the financial market's recent volatility, while Matt Colyar discusses the latest inflation data and how it shapes market expectations. The trio hilariously debates the implications of rising tariffs, bond yields, and recession probabilities, shedding light on the unpredictable nature of today’s economy.

John Carney, Finance and Economics Editor at Breitbart, channels President Trump's economic strategies, while Jim Parrott, a nonresident fellow at the Urban Institute, provides insights from his time in the Obama administration. They delve into the motivations behind Trump's trade war, highlighting that it’s far from over and recession looms. The duo discusses the impacts of tariffs on consumers and manufacturers and debates the intricacies of housing finance reform, particularly regarding Fannie and Freddie’s role in affordability and their connection to broader economic policies.

The hosts dive into the downturn of stock market prices and its implications, prioritizing it over job market concerns. They analyze the tariffs from the trade war, emphasizing their negative impact on stock prices and questioning their long-term effectiveness. A discussion on the regressive nature of proposed taxes highlights challenges for low-income households. They debate the fairness of the trade deficit and explore the complex landscape of tariffs, particularly in relation to international negotiations, revealing the urgency for swift economic discussions.

This week's discussion highlights the significant economic impact of new auto tariffs, predicting a 25% price hike for consumers. The hosts dive into the reliability of government statistics versus private sector alternatives, questioning the accuracy of unemployment claims and GDP calculations. Additionally, they explore the stark economic perspectives between younger and older generations, noting increased pessimism among younger adults. The conversation wraps up with intriguing insights into labor market dynamics and recent growth trends in the economy.

Join Mark Haefele, the Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, as he navigates the choppy waters of today’s economic landscape. He shares insights from his book, discussing the critical '5 Ds' shaping investment strategies: debt, deglobalization, decarbonization, digitalization, and demographics. Mark also dives into the evolving role of cryptocurrency amid regulatory tides and introduces the Wealthway 3Ls—liquidity, longevity, and legacy—as a framework for financial management. Prepare to rethink your investment strategy with his expert advice!

Firas Saleh, Director of Product Management at Moody's and an authority on catastrophe modeling, joins the discussion on the alarming rise of wildfires and floods. He elaborates on the economic losses associated with these disasters and how they're reshaping the insurance landscape. The conversation dives into rising insurance premiums, their impact on homeowners, and the overall challenges for the insurance industry amid climate change. Firas also emphasizes the urgent need for resilient infrastructure to combat these evolving risks.