Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Mark, Cris, and Marisa talk about the increasingly shaky state of the economy after reviewing the week’s data. They preview next week’s jobs report and the likelihood of further downward revisions and negative payroll numbers. The trio then ponders some dark scenarios regarding Fed independence or lack thereof, and what that could mean for the growth and inflation outlooks. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

From Fed Chair Powell’s confirmation of coming interest rate cuts to digital wallets, this episode dives deep into the evolving world of digital currencies with guest Ananya Kumar from the Atlantic Council. Whether you're managing your portfolio like co-host Crypto Cris or just trying to keep up with changing technologies, we’ve got you covered.Guest: Ananya Kumar, Deputy Director of Future of Money, Atlantic CouncilFor Ananya's article on Chinese Stablecoin click here: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/everybody-wants-a-stablecoin-even-china/Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Join Matt Colyar, a colleague with insights in economics, as he unpacks July’s consumer price index. They argue that while the CPI results weren't entirely surprising, they signal underlying concerns. The team explores how tariffs on Japanese cars impact U.S. pricing and sheds light on the subtle shifts in consumer spending amid inflation. They touch on retail sales trends, the challenges of outdated labor market reporting, and the potential solutions for elevated mortgage rates, all while engaging with listener questions for an entertaining discussion.

Erica Groshen, former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner and current Senior Economic Advisor at Cornell University, dives deep into the significance of the BLS amid recent turmoil, including the firing of the current commissioner. She discusses the crucial balance between data timeliness and accuracy, especially in light of controversial job data revisions. The dialogue highlights the agency's challenges, the importance of public support for statistical integrity, and concerns about political influences that could undermine trust in economic data.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, dives deep into today's challenging labor market and economic landscape. He discusses the troubling inflation trends and their impact on the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The conversation explores discrepancies in job data, particularly how new graduates are struggling to find work. DeAntonio also analyzes insights from a predictive model on recession probabilities while emphasizing the growing uncertainty surrounding employment trends and consumer confidence.

Join Matt Colyar, an economist at Moody's Analytics, as he dives into the thorny issues shaping the 2025 U.S. economy. He discusses the growing challenges to Federal Reserve independence and the implications of recent tariff agreements. The conversation turns to the strained U.S. housing market and the potential impacts of a weakening dollar on consumers. They also address skepticism about impressive international investments and engage in light-hearted banter while predicting recession probabilities and consumer spending trends.

Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist for Cox Automotive, and Michael Brisson, Director at Moody's Analytics, dive into the automotive landscape. They discuss the impact of tariffs on production and pricing, dissecting their differing views on auto credit's future. The pair highlight trends in vehicle sales, driven by consumer fears and economic pressures like rising auto loan delinquencies. Additionally, they examine how wage growth interacts with consumer behavior in a volatile market, offering key insights into the industry's outlook.

Jim Parrott, a housing policy expert, Ira Goldstein, a Philadelphia housing legend, and Maggie McCullough, CEO of PolicyMap, dive into the decade-long housing shortage crisis. They unpack surprising insights into regional housing discrepancies and the complexities behind the statistics. The conversation reveals a staggering deficit of 2 million housing units, while addressing the pressures faced by moderate-income earners amid rising rents. Together, they emphasize the critical role of data in shaping effective housing policies to meet community needs.

Austan Goolsbee, the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and former chairman under President Obama, dives into the complexities of the current economy. He shares insights on the challenges of tariffs affecting interest rate normalization and reflects on past financial crises. Goolsbee weighs the controversial implications of artificial intelligence on jobs while maintaining a humorous perspective on economic discussions, revealing his ambition to blend the wisdom of Paul Volcker with the flair of Muhammad Ali.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, joins the hosts for a lively discussion about the labor market. They unravel the contradictions between positive job reports and the underlying economic weaknesses, alongside concerns about stagnant wage growth. The group also debates the potential threats of higher inflation lurking beneath the surface. Engaging in a stats game, Marisa showcases her knowledge, stumping the experts with surprising figures. The conversation fuses expert insights with playful banter.