Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

John Hilsenrath, a former Wall Street Journal journalist turned Fed policy advisor, joins to discuss the latest jobs report and its implications. The conversation reveals the labor market's fragility, with Hilsenrath labeling the current job growth as 'anemic'. He raises concerns about Fed independence amidst political pressures and suggests that the Fed's real inflation target may be higher than officially stated. Additionally, they analyze trends in healthcare job growth and the rising unemployment among college graduates, reflecting changing labor dynamics.

The hosts reflect on the economy's performance in 2025, revealing forecast accuracy surprises. A debate brews over whether the year was resilient or fragile, with predictions for 2026 covering GDP, AI impacts, and labor market uncertainties. The conversation also delves into inflation risks from tariffs and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. With detailed scenarios for economic outcomes, they discuss the balance between AI-driven productivity and its implications for job growth, all while pondering fiscal stimulus effects. It's a compelling analysis of a fragile yet hopeful economic landscape.

Join Natalie Gochnour, an expert in Utah's economic landscape, and Adam Kamins from Moody's Analytics as they explore the secrets behind Utah's impressive growth. They discuss the state's unique demographics, governance, and quality of life that attract new residents. The conversation also tackles the latest GDP trends and consumer confidence insights. Dive into Utah's challenges like housing affordability and water issues, along with its diverse economy and the impact of technology on jobs. A lively discussion revealing why the Beehive State buzzes with opportunity!

Matt Colyar, an economist from Moody's Analytics, discusses the quirks in consumer price index (CPI) data affected by the government shutdown, highlighting the misleading drop due to insufficient fresh data. Meanwhile, Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, shares insights into the housing market's tough year ahead while pointing out opportunities, such as the dynamics between existing and new home sales, and the challenges posed by rising interest rates and builder incentives.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, dives into the recent employment report revealing a stagnating labor market. The discussion highlights the dual-month payroll data due to a government shutdown and its impacts. They dissect rising unemployment, potential recession probabilities, and wage growth concerns amidst productivity claims. The panel also debates how AI may reshape entry-level jobs, and the implications of weak retail sales on consumer spending. It's a gripping look at economic indicators and their far-reaching effects.

The team dives into the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, debating if the messaging felt more hawkish or dovish. They explore the implications of job losses and whether these can avoid a looming recession. A look at the labor market reveals concerning trends, while the discussion shifts to tariffs and inflation’s impact on the Fed's independence. Listener questions spark debates about gig work and the rationale behind a 2% inflation target. Ultimately, they ponder how rising equities coexist with job weakness.

Welcome to a bonus episode of Inside Economics. This is a recording that took place between Mark Zandi and our most recent podcast guest, Daleep Singh at the Aspen Ideas Festival a couple of months ago. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Daleep Singh, Vice Chairman and Global Chief Economist of investment manager PGIM, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the seismic shifts occurring in the global economy and financial system. The unipolar global economy, which the U.S. dominated for decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has given way to the old normal, a world much like that of the Gilded Age that only ended with World War I. Listen in to hear if Daleep believes this time will be different. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The hosts explore the surprising absence of a November jobs report but delve into the latest labor market data. They debate the implications of growing affordability concerns and how households are really coping financially. A discussion on the disparities between small and large firm hiring trends emerges, alongside insights into the influence of immigration policies. With student loan pressures rising and consumer sentiment showing extremes, the team questions the Federal Reserve's independence and its impact on interest rates.

Scott Hoyt, an economist and retail specialist, dives into the gloomy state of U.S. consumer sentiment this holiday season. He discusses disappointing retail sales trends and factors contributing to consumer softness, like inflation and housing. The conversation takes a turn towards debt burdens, highlighting inequality among households. With a modest holiday sales forecast, the panel examines how a stronger prior year complicates growth comparisons. They also tackle a listener question on wealth inequality, emphasizing its impacts on housing and education.