Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Celebrate four years of insightful discussions! The hosts dive into listener questions about the global trade war, tariffs, and the evolving dynamics of the dollar and bond markets. They also tackle the complexities of immigration and innovation in driving economic growth and critique the impact of tariffs on productivity. Amid rising energy prices, they analyze the intertwined effects of U.S.-China supply chain dependencies and the potential for a recession. Tune in for smart insights on economic trends and listener-driven discussions!

Jared Bernstein, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under Joe Biden, weighs in on global economic turbulence and the nuances of the U.S.-China trade war. Martin Wurm shares insights on the financial market's recent volatility, while Matt Colyar discusses the latest inflation data and how it shapes market expectations. The trio hilariously debates the implications of rising tariffs, bond yields, and recession probabilities, shedding light on the unpredictable nature of today’s economy.

John Carney, Finance and Economics Editor at Breitbart, channels President Trump's economic strategies, while Jim Parrott, a nonresident fellow at the Urban Institute, provides insights from his time in the Obama administration. They delve into the motivations behind Trump's trade war, highlighting that it’s far from over and recession looms. The duo discusses the impacts of tariffs on consumers and manufacturers and debates the intricacies of housing finance reform, particularly regarding Fannie and Freddie’s role in affordability and their connection to broader economic policies.

The hosts dive into the downturn of stock market prices and its implications, prioritizing it over job market concerns. They analyze the tariffs from the trade war, emphasizing their negative impact on stock prices and questioning their long-term effectiveness. A discussion on the regressive nature of proposed taxes highlights challenges for low-income households. They debate the fairness of the trade deficit and explore the complex landscape of tariffs, particularly in relation to international negotiations, revealing the urgency for swift economic discussions.

This week's discussion highlights the significant economic impact of new auto tariffs, predicting a 25% price hike for consumers. The hosts dive into the reliability of government statistics versus private sector alternatives, questioning the accuracy of unemployment claims and GDP calculations. Additionally, they explore the stark economic perspectives between younger and older generations, noting increased pessimism among younger adults. The conversation wraps up with intriguing insights into labor market dynamics and recent growth trends in the economy.

Join Mark Haefele, the Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, as he navigates the choppy waters of today’s economic landscape. He shares insights from his book, discussing the critical '5 Ds' shaping investment strategies: debt, deglobalization, decarbonization, digitalization, and demographics. Mark also dives into the evolving role of cryptocurrency amid regulatory tides and introduces the Wealthway 3Ls—liquidity, longevity, and legacy—as a framework for financial management. Prepare to rethink your investment strategy with his expert advice!

Firas Saleh, Director of Product Management at Moody's and an authority on catastrophe modeling, joins the discussion on the alarming rise of wildfires and floods. He elaborates on the economic losses associated with these disasters and how they're reshaping the insurance landscape. The conversation dives into rising insurance premiums, their impact on homeowners, and the overall challenges for the insurance industry amid climate change. Firas also emphasizes the urgent need for resilient infrastructure to combat these evolving risks.

The Inside Economics crew is joined by Matt Colyar to discuss February’s CPI report and a rapidly changing U.S. economic environment. Primarily, the conversation focuses on tariffs and the on-again, off-again chaos coming out of D.C. The group also discusses investors and U.S. trade partners’ increasingly evident fatigue and whether orthodox macroeconomic principals will eventually re-emerge as a guidepost for policymaking. Guest: Matt Colyar – Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, shares his insights on the February jobs report and the fragility of the labor market. The discussion uncovers how federal workforce cuts and inconsistent tariffs could impact the economy. They delve into rising unemployment rates and the effects of demographic shifts on labor participation. Dante also highlights his success in the stats game while the hosts reassess their recession probabilities, illuminating current economic uncertainties with engaging banter.

Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at the Economic Innovation Group, joins the podcast to discuss his latest proposal to reform and replace the high-skilled immigration program in the U.S. (better known as H-1B). In addition to immigration policy, the group discusses remote work, the softening of recent economic data, and the prospects for the year ahead. Finally, the group goes around the horn with its recession probability for the next 12 months.Guest: Adam Ozimek – Chief Economist of the Economic Innovation GroupAdam Ozimek's research on high skilled immigration: https://eig.org/exceptional-by-design%20/Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.