Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Mark and Cris are joined by Natalie Gochnour, associate dean in the David Eccles School of Business and director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, and Moody’s Analytics’ head of regional economics Adam Kamins to learn some of the secrets behind one of the nation’s most successful states.  From demographics to governance to the ski slopes, Natalie shares lessons learned from her decades working in and for Utah, including what to call residents of the Beehive State (hint: don’t even think about adding a second “a.”).The gang also talks about newly-released third quarter GDP data and The Conference Board’s most recent consumer confidence survey. Finally, Mark capitalizes on his knowledge of Cris’s mannerisms to claim victory in the stats game.Guest: Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean in the David Eccles School of Business and Director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy InstituteHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Matt Colyar, an economist from Moody's Analytics, discusses the quirks in consumer price index (CPI) data affected by the government shutdown, highlighting the misleading drop due to insufficient fresh data. Meanwhile, Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, shares insights into the housing market's tough year ahead while pointing out opportunities, such as the dynamics between existing and new home sales, and the challenges posed by rising interest rates and builder incentives.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, dives into the recent employment report revealing a stagnating labor market. The discussion highlights the dual-month payroll data due to a government shutdown and its impacts. They dissect rising unemployment, potential recession probabilities, and wage growth concerns amidst productivity claims. The panel also debates how AI may reshape entry-level jobs, and the implications of weak retail sales on consumer spending. It's a gripping look at economic indicators and their far-reaching effects.

The team dives into the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, debating if the messaging felt more hawkish or dovish. They explore the implications of job losses and whether these can avoid a looming recession. A look at the labor market reveals concerning trends, while the discussion shifts to tariffs and inflation’s impact on the Fed's independence. Listener questions spark debates about gig work and the rationale behind a 2% inflation target. Ultimately, they ponder how rising equities coexist with job weakness.

Welcome to a bonus episode of Inside Economics. This is a recording that took place between Mark Zandi and our most recent podcast guest, Daleep Singh at the Aspen Ideas Festival a couple of months ago. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Daleep Singh, Vice Chairman and Global Chief Economist of investment manager PGIM, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the seismic shifts occurring in the global economy and financial system. The unipolar global economy, which the U.S. dominated for decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has given way to the old normal, a world much like that of the Gilded Age that only ended with World War I. Listen in to hear if Daleep believes this time will be different. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The hosts explore the surprising absence of a November jobs report but delve into the latest labor market data. They debate the implications of growing affordability concerns and how households are really coping financially. A discussion on the disparities between small and large firm hiring trends emerges, alongside insights into the influence of immigration policies. With student loan pressures rising and consumer sentiment showing extremes, the team questions the Federal Reserve's independence and its impact on interest rates.

Scott Hoyt, an economist and retail specialist, dives into the gloomy state of U.S. consumer sentiment this holiday season. He discusses disappointing retail sales trends and factors contributing to consumer softness, like inflation and housing. The conversation takes a turn towards debt burdens, highlighting inequality among households. With a modest holiday sales forecast, the panel examines how a stronger prior year complicates growth comparisons. They also tackle a listener question on wealth inequality, emphasizing its impacts on housing and education.

Alan Blinder, a renowned economics professor and former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, shares his insights on various pressing topics. He explores the potential of AI to drive unexpected GDP growth while warning of a bubble in equity markets reminiscent of the Wile E. Coyote metaphor, highlighting the unpredictability of market crashes. Blinder also discusses the implications of AI on job displacement, education reforms, and the risks to Federal Reserve independence amid political pressures. His thoughts on immigration policy further underline critical labor shortages.

Matt Collier, a savvy economist from Moody's Analytics, joins the discussion on the aftermath of the government shutdown and its surprisingly mild impact on the economy. The conversation shifts to the Trump administration's actions aimed at improving affordability, including the rollback of tariffs on everyday items like pasta and bananas. The hosts also unveil a new segment addressing listener questions, touching on everything from job market implications to potential housing finance reforms. Tune in for some insightful economic analysis!