Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Martin Wurm, a Moody's Analytics financial economist who covers the Federal Reserve, discusses Kevin Warsh as a potential Fed chair. They explore Warsh's inflation-first stance, his push to narrow the Fed’s toolkit, debates over QE and regulation, and whether his views would reshape Fed independence. Short takes on market reactions and productivity’s role in rate policy round out the conversation.

Andrés Velasco, LSE School of Public Policy dean and former Chilean finance minister, offers sharp perspective on geopolitics and policy. They unpack the U.S. bid for Greenland and what it says about rules-based order. The conversation probes market reactions, Europe’s leverage, rising populism, and the London Consensus as a rethink of policy priorities beyond GDP.

Logan Wright, partner and director of China markets research at Rhodium Group, dives deep into the nuances of the Chinese economy. He discusses the troubling discrepancies in China's GDP data and the impact of a collapsing property sector on real growth. Logan links the slowdown to a major credit bubble and highlights the risks of 'zombified' lending. He also evaluates China's growing reliance on exports, geopolitical tensions, and its strategic use of rare earths, offering a stark outlook on domestic demand and limited policy options.

John Hilsenrath, a former Wall Street Journal journalist turned Fed policy advisor, joins to discuss the latest jobs report and its implications. The conversation reveals the labor market's fragility, with Hilsenrath labeling the current job growth as 'anemic'. He raises concerns about Fed independence amidst political pressures and suggests that the Fed's real inflation target may be higher than officially stated. Additionally, they analyze trends in healthcare job growth and the rising unemployment among college graduates, reflecting changing labor dynamics.

The hosts reflect on the economy's performance in 2025, revealing forecast accuracy surprises. A debate brews over whether the year was resilient or fragile, with predictions for 2026 covering GDP, AI impacts, and labor market uncertainties. The conversation also delves into inflation risks from tariffs and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. With detailed scenarios for economic outcomes, they discuss the balance between AI-driven productivity and its implications for job growth, all while pondering fiscal stimulus effects. It's a compelling analysis of a fragile yet hopeful economic landscape.

Join Natalie Gochnour, an expert in Utah's economic landscape, and Adam Kamins from Moody's Analytics as they explore the secrets behind Utah's impressive growth. They discuss the state's unique demographics, governance, and quality of life that attract new residents. The conversation also tackles the latest GDP trends and consumer confidence insights. Dive into Utah's challenges like housing affordability and water issues, along with its diverse economy and the impact of technology on jobs. A lively discussion revealing why the Beehive State buzzes with opportunity!

Matt Colyar, an economist from Moody's Analytics, discusses the quirks in consumer price index (CPI) data affected by the government shutdown, highlighting the misleading drop due to insufficient fresh data. Meanwhile, Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, shares insights into the housing market's tough year ahead while pointing out opportunities, such as the dynamics between existing and new home sales, and the challenges posed by rising interest rates and builder incentives.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, dives into the recent employment report revealing a stagnating labor market. The discussion highlights the dual-month payroll data due to a government shutdown and its impacts. They dissect rising unemployment, potential recession probabilities, and wage growth concerns amidst productivity claims. The panel also debates how AI may reshape entry-level jobs, and the implications of weak retail sales on consumer spending. It's a gripping look at economic indicators and their far-reaching effects.

The team dives into the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, debating if the messaging felt more hawkish or dovish. They explore the implications of job losses and whether these can avoid a looming recession. A look at the labor market reveals concerning trends, while the discussion shifts to tariffs and inflation’s impact on the Fed's independence. Listener questions spark debates about gig work and the rationale behind a 2% inflation target. Ultimately, they ponder how rising equities coexist with job weakness.

Welcome to a bonus episode of Inside Economics. This is a recording that took place between Mark Zandi and our most recent podcast guest, Daleep Singh at the Aspen Ideas Festival a couple of months ago. Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.