Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Erica Groshen, former Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner and current Senior Economic Advisor at Cornell University, dives deep into the significance of the BLS amid recent turmoil, including the firing of the current commissioner. She discusses the crucial balance between data timeliness and accuracy, especially in light of controversial job data revisions. The dialogue highlights the agency's challenges, the importance of public support for statistical integrity, and concerns about political influences that could undermine trust in economic data.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, dives deep into today's challenging labor market and economic landscape. He discusses the troubling inflation trends and their impact on the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The conversation explores discrepancies in job data, particularly how new graduates are struggling to find work. DeAntonio also analyzes insights from a predictive model on recession probabilities while emphasizing the growing uncertainty surrounding employment trends and consumer confidence.

Join Matt Colyar, an economist at Moody's Analytics, as he dives into the thorny issues shaping the 2025 U.S. economy. He discusses the growing challenges to Federal Reserve independence and the implications of recent tariff agreements. The conversation turns to the strained U.S. housing market and the potential impacts of a weakening dollar on consumers. They also address skepticism about impressive international investments and engage in light-hearted banter while predicting recession probabilities and consumer spending trends.

Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist for Cox Automotive, and Michael Brisson, Director at Moody's Analytics, dive into the automotive landscape. They discuss the impact of tariffs on production and pricing, dissecting their differing views on auto credit's future. The pair highlight trends in vehicle sales, driven by consumer fears and economic pressures like rising auto loan delinquencies. Additionally, they examine how wage growth interacts with consumer behavior in a volatile market, offering key insights into the industry's outlook.

Jim Parrott, a housing policy expert, Ira Goldstein, a Philadelphia housing legend, and Maggie McCullough, CEO of PolicyMap, dive into the decade-long housing shortage crisis. They unpack surprising insights into regional housing discrepancies and the complexities behind the statistics. The conversation reveals a staggering deficit of 2 million housing units, while addressing the pressures faced by moderate-income earners amid rising rents. Together, they emphasize the critical role of data in shaping effective housing policies to meet community needs.

Austan Goolsbee, the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and former chairman under President Obama, dives into the complexities of the current economy. He shares insights on the challenges of tariffs affecting interest rate normalization and reflects on past financial crises. Goolsbee weighs the controversial implications of artificial intelligence on jobs while maintaining a humorous perspective on economic discussions, revealing his ambition to blend the wisdom of Paul Volcker with the flair of Muhammad Ali.

Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, joins the hosts for a lively discussion about the labor market. They unravel the contradictions between positive job reports and the underlying economic weaknesses, alongside concerns about stagnant wage growth. The group also debates the potential threats of higher inflation lurking beneath the surface. Engaging in a stats game, Marisa showcases her knowledge, stumping the experts with surprising figures. The conversation fuses expert insights with playful banter.

Ivy Zelman, Executive Vice President of Zelman & Associates, shares her 30 years of expertise on the housing market, joined by Adam Kamins, a regional economist at Moody's Analytics. They dissect the current bearish outlook due to disappointing demand and a mortgage rate lock's impact. Ivy discusses the regional differences in housing dynamics and why builders are pulling back. The conversation also covers the challenges faced by first-time buyers and the role of policy changes on the housing landscape.

This week, Steve Cochrane, recently retired Chief APAC Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Chris Lafakis, Director of Climate and Energy Economics, to explore the intricate dance between geopolitics and the economy. Steve shares insights on managing workplace dynamics after 32 years in the game, while Chris delves into U.S.-China economic tensions. The duo discusses rising oil prices triggered by Middle Eastern conflicts and their potential impacts on consumer spending. A blend of personal reflections and serious analysis makes for an engaging conversation!

Join Samim Ghamami, a Senior Economist at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, as he dives into the booming private credit market, now worth over $2 trillion. He discusses the systemic risks tied to this rapidly expanding sector and how it impacts middle-market lending, private equity, and emerging markets like real estate. Samim also addresses the challenges of transparency and the regulatory landscape in the wake of the COVID pandemic, emphasizing the need for updated policies to stabilize financial systems.