Moody's Talks - Inside Economics A Downer Podcast
Nov 26, 2025
Scott Hoyt, an economist and retail specialist, dives into the gloomy state of U.S. consumer sentiment this holiday season. He discusses disappointing retail sales trends and factors contributing to consumer softness, like inflation and housing. The conversation takes a turn towards debt burdens, highlighting inequality among households. With a modest holiday sales forecast, the panel examines how a stronger prior year complicates growth comparisons. They also tackle a listener question on wealth inequality, emphasizing its impacts on housing and education.
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Housing Stuck At Low Activity
- Housing indicators show stabilization but remain weak with little sign of a turnaround.
- Mortgage rates near 6.3–6.4% keep activity subdued and starts under 1.4M signal continued weakness.
Wholesale Inflation Trending Up
- September PPI rose 0.3% with energy and food driving the monthly gain.
- Core (ex-food & energy) rose 0.2% and services were unchanged, keeping wholesale inflation somewhat firm.
Labor Market Is Softening
- ADP's new weekly payroll estimate showed a four-week average decline of 13,500 jobs, signaling softening labor demand.
- The hosts flagged this and other indicators as evidence the labor market is cooling further.