Moody's Talks - Inside Economics No Jobs Friday: The Sequel
Nov 7, 2025
Discussing the lack of official labor market data, the hosts explore alternative labor indicators and the implications of a potential federal government shutdown. They analyze trends in unemployment claims and job cuts, suggesting that AI may primarily impact overseas jobs. Delving into private payroll measures, they estimate future hiring will be weak. As travel disruptions loom, they ponder the broader economic ripple effects and the challenges ahead in data recovery, highlighting how AI can enhance rather than replace economic forecasting.
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UI Claims Show Layoffs Still Low
- Weekly initial UI claims under ~250K imply layoffs remain low and the labor market is not yet a recession signal.
- Mark Zandi uses 250K/275K/300K thresholds to flag rising concern and recession risk.
Record Announced Cuts Don't Equal Immediate Layoffs
- Challenger reported record monthly announced job cuts of 153,000 in October, highest since 2003, but announcements don't reliably predict UI claims.
- Firms often cite cost cutting and AI as reasons, yet implementation and geographic impact vary.
AI Cuts May Reflect Hiring Pullback
- Companies citing AI as a reason for cuts may be signaling slower hiring rather than immediate mass firings.
- Cristian deRitis notes early AI effects may hit outsourced, routinized roles overseas first, weakening the direct US impact.