Moody's Talks - Inside Economics On the Brightside with Michelle Meyer
Sep 29, 2025
Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard, lends her insights into the resilience of the U.S. economy and consumer spending trends. She forecasts a modest growth ahead, dismissing recession fears while analyzing labor market stability. Michelle discusses the composition of holiday spending, emphasizing the impact of e-commerce and inflation. Regional spending patterns reveal strong trends in the Southeast, while upside potential lies in AI investments driving productivity. A riveting conversation on the health of the American consumer awaits!
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U.S. Growth Is Likely To Continue
- Michelle Meyer sees the U.S. economy as resilient despite uncertainty and shocks.
- She expects continued expansion and modest reacceleration into next year with GDP near potential.
Moderation Reflects Supply And Demand
- Job creation has moderated because both hiring and labor supply declined, not just demand.
- The unemployment rate staying near 4.3% suggests the labor market may be closer to balance than the headline job count implies.
Concentration Creates Fragility
- Job and spending gains are concentrated in a few sectors and cohorts, raising fragility risks.
- Broader diffusion of growth would make the expansion more sustainable.