Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa, joins to discuss the current landscape of the American consumer. He dives into Visa’s Spending Momentum Index, illustrating how inflation impacts spending across different income levels. The discussion also addresses trends in delinquency rates and the wealth effect on affluent consumers. Best shares insights on the challenges faced by lower-income households and the implications of Trump's economic policies, blending serious analysis with celebratory humor as the hosts mark their 200th milestone.
The podcast celebrates its 200th episode by reflecting on the team's journey and the engagement of its audience over the years.
Wayne Best emphasizes the distinct consumer behavior trends across income groups, with higher earners spending luxuriously while lower earners struggle amidst economic challenges.
The discussion highlights how economic uncertainty, influenced by policies and regulations, could impede consumer spending and overall economic growth.
Deep dives
Celebrating 200 Episodes
The 200th episode marks a significant milestone for the hosts and listeners of the show. This achievement reflects not only the dedication of the team at Moody's Analytics but also the engagement of their audience over the years. The hosts share personal anecdotes about their experiences at the company, including discussions of anniversary gifts that Moody's provides for long-term employees. This lighthearted conversation sets a celebratory tone for the episode, highlighting the team's camaraderie and appreciation for their journey.
Insights on the American Consumer
The podcast delves into the dynamics of American consumer behavior, emphasizing the prevailing trends among different income groups. It identifies a 'tale of two consumers': while higher-income households continue to spend on experiences and luxury, middle-income groups appear more cautious due to economic uncertainty, relying more on debit cards instead of credit. In contrast, lower-income households face significant struggles, having exhausted their savings and feeling the brunt of high inflation and interest rates. The hosts predict that consumer spending may slow down in the coming months, influenced by ongoing economic challenges.
Understanding the Spending Momentum Index
A key topic discussed is the Spending Momentum Index, designed to gauge consumer spending patterns using Visa's extensive data. This index measures the number of consumers actively shopping and allows for analysis of spending trends on both a national and regional scale. Recent figures indicate the index is below the neutral point of 100, suggesting fewer consumers are spending compared to the previous year. This is attributed to a decline in the number of individuals participating in retail activity, yet those who are spending are doing so at higher amounts, primarily from affluent households.
Challenges Faced by Lower-Income Households
The discussion highlights the ongoing financial strain on lower-income households as they grapple with high inflation and increased living costs. While net worth has improved for some due to rising home values and 401k participation, many in this group are still disadvantaged and may not own homes or savings. The podcast notes that although there is evidence of job growth in general, it has not translated into significant relief for this income group. The hosts express concern for these households as they face record-high interest rates and reduced consumer spending power.
Economic Uncertainty and Consumer Behavior
The episode concludes by addressing the economic uncertainty that can impact consumer spending and business investment. The possibilities of increased tariffs, immigration policies, and changing regulations introduce unknown factors to the market, which can cause businesses and consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach. This uncertainty may hinder immediate investments, potentially leading to slower economic growth. The hosts emphasize that understanding these challenges is critical for predicting consumer behavior and structuring economic forecasts in the upcoming years.
Inside Economics welcomes Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa, back on the podcast to celebrate the 200th episode and talk about the state of the American consumer. Wayne discusses Visa’s Spending Momentum Index for the U.S. and other parts of the globe and what it means for low, high, and middle-income households. The conversation ends with a discussion of the Trump administration’s policy proposals and the implications for inflation and growth.
Guest: Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa
Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics
Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn
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