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Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
Inflation, Tariffs, Spreads…Hike?
Dec 13, 2024
Matt Colyar, Assistant Director at Moody's Analytics, shares his insights on inflation data and its impact on interest rates. The conversation highlights persistent inflation challenges, particularly in food and housing. They discuss the Federal Reserve's strategies amidst a strong economy and the potential for interest rate hikes. Additionally, the impact of recent hurricanes on vehicle prices and the relationship between inflation metrics and economic indicators take center stage, making for a rich economic analysis.
01:03:20
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Quick takeaways
- Recent inflation data indicates a rising trend, particularly in food and shelter costs, creating challenges for the Federal Reserve's inflation targets.
- The automotive market's reversal in declining vehicle prices complicates previous forecasts for goods inflation moderation, impacting overall consumer prices.
Deep dives
Current Inflation Trends
Recent data reveals that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in November, pushing the year-over-year rate from 2.6% to 2.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also experienced a 0.3% increase, remaining at 3.3% for the third consecutive month. The monthly increase was marginally stronger than the previous month, indicating a trend of stickier inflation which has persisted into the latter part of the year. This suggests a shift from the moderation observed earlier, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve's inflation targets.
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