Matt Colyar

In this insightful discussion, Matt Colyar, Assistant Director at Moody's Analytics, dives into the recent surge in inflation data. He highlights the unexpected rise in the January Consumer Price Index and its implications. The conversation explores the surprising increase in used vehicle prices and factors like consumer behavior and tariffs. Food and healthcare inflation trends, including rising egg prices, are examined. The group also unpacks the complexities of different inflation metrics and their effects on economic forecasts, ensuring a lively exchange of ideas.

Matt Colyar, an inflation expert and Assistant Director at Moody's Analytics, dives into the rising threat of stagflation. He discusses how higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts are poised to push inflation rates up. Attention is also given to the potential for a recession, examining factors like labor supply and energy prices. Colyar emphasizes the role of consumer behavior in navigating economic fluctuations and the Federal Reserve's challenge in maintaining its inflation mandate amidst these pressures.

Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and former Federal Reserve economist, joins Matt Colyar, Assistant Director at Moody's Analytics, for an insightful discussion on the current economic landscape. They analyze the recent Consumer Price Index data and its impact on inflation, labor markets, and stock valuations. Claudia highlights risks such as the effects of immigration policy on productivity and financial strains on lower-income households. The duo also considers the implications of AI on the economy and potential systemic risks in private credit.

Join Matt Colyar, a colleague with insights in economics, as he unpacks July’s consumer price index. They argue that while the CPI results weren't entirely surprising, they signal underlying concerns. The team explores how tariffs on Japanese cars impact U.S. pricing and sheds light on the subtle shifts in consumer spending amid inflation. They touch on retail sales trends, the challenges of outdated labor market reporting, and the potential solutions for elevated mortgage rates, all while engaging with listener questions for an entertaining discussion.

Join Matt Colyar, an economist at Moody's Analytics, as he dives into the thorny issues shaping the 2025 U.S. economy. He discusses the growing challenges to Federal Reserve independence and the implications of recent tariff agreements. The conversation turns to the strained U.S. housing market and the potential impacts of a weakening dollar on consumers. They also address skepticism about impressive international investments and engage in light-hearted banter while predicting recession probabilities and consumer spending trends.