Matt Colyar

In this insightful discussion, Matt Colyar, Assistant Director at Moody's Analytics, dives into the recent surge in inflation data. He highlights the unexpected rise in the January Consumer Price Index and its implications. The conversation explores the surprising increase in used vehicle prices and factors like consumer behavior and tariffs. Food and healthcare inflation trends, including rising egg prices, are examined. The group also unpacks the complexities of different inflation metrics and their effects on economic forecasts, ensuring a lively exchange of ideas.

Matt Colyar, an inflation expert and Assistant Director at Moody's Analytics, dives into the rising threat of stagflation. He discusses how higher tariffs and geopolitical conflicts are poised to push inflation rates up. Attention is also given to the potential for a recession, examining factors like labor supply and energy prices. Colyar emphasizes the role of consumer behavior in navigating economic fluctuations and the Federal Reserve's challenge in maintaining its inflation mandate amidst these pressures.

Jared Bernstein, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under Joe Biden, weighs in on global economic turbulence and the nuances of the U.S.-China trade war. Martin Wurm shares insights on the financial market's recent volatility, while Matt Colyar discusses the latest inflation data and how it shapes market expectations. The trio hilariously debates the implications of rising tariffs, bond yields, and recession probabilities, shedding light on the unpredictable nature of today’s economy.