Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Inflation Rundown
Aug 15, 2025
Join Matt Colyar, a colleague with insights in economics, as he unpacks July’s consumer price index. They argue that while the CPI results weren't entirely surprising, they signal underlying concerns. The team explores how tariffs on Japanese cars impact U.S. pricing and sheds light on the subtle shifts in consumer spending amid inflation. They touch on retail sales trends, the challenges of outdated labor market reporting, and the potential solutions for elevated mortgage rates, all while engaging with listener questions for an entertaining discussion.
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Core Inflation Is Reaccelerating
- July CPI matched forecasts but showed re-acceleration in core inflation, signaling renewed upward pressure.
- Core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and core year-over-year jumped to 3.1%, the strongest since January.
Market Rally Misread CPI Signal
- Markets treated an unsurprising CPI print as good news, pushing prices up on expectations of Fed cuts.
- The hosts argued strong monthly core inflation is hard to reconcile with optimism about near-term rate cuts.
Shelter Effects Finally Appear
- Shelter inflation is slowing and finally feeding through to CPI after long lags.
- Owner's equivalent rent and rent measures have been moderating, lowering core shelter growth.