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Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
It’s the Final Countdown
Jan 17, 2025
Cosimo Pacciani, Head of Research for Poste Italiane, and Gaurav Ganguly, Chief EMEA economist at Moody's Analytics, dive into the economic implications of recent U.S. political events on Europe. They discuss inflation trends and the ripple effects on European politics, spotlighting how rising prices are impacting voter behavior. The conversation also touches on the Eurozone's trade surplus with the U.S. and the cultural shifts affecting market dynamics. The episode concludes with insights on revitalizing European competitiveness amid geopolitical challenges.
01:08:11
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Quick takeaways
- The rise in the Consumer Price Index indicates inflationary pressures are largely influenced by the energy sector's monthly increase.
- Voter sentiment in both the U.S. and Europe is significantly swayed by inflation rates, shaping political landscapes and party dynamics.
Deep dives
Market Dynamics and Inflation Insights
Recent data reveals a notable rise in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), with an increase of 0.4% from November to December, leading to a year-over-year rate climbing from 2.7% to 2.9%. A significant contributor to this uptick was the energy sector, which experienced a 2.6% monthly rise, accounting for approximately 40% of the overall CPI increase. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, saw a more favorable increase of only 0.23%, hinting at a potential easing of inflation pressures as it decreased year-over-year from 3.3% to 3.2%. Overall, the data suggests an encouraging trend, particularly with shelter inflation showing signs of disinflation, indicating that markets may see an improved inflation outlook in the coming months.
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