Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

The Inside Economics team discusses what they found most encouraging and disquieting in the blizzard of economic releases and events of this past week. Emily Mandel, our state and local government expert, also weighs in on the fiscal health of states and how the economy is performing in states that stand to swing the Presidential election. The group also takes up listener questions; keep the Qs coming. Guest: Emily Mandel - Associate Director, Senior Economist, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.

Brendan LaCerda joins economic experts Mark Zandi, Cris deRitis, and Marisa DiNatale for a wide-ranging discussion. They tackle the Canadian railroad workers strike and key insights from Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech. The hosts share intriguing findings on U.S. employment revisions potentially overestimating job numbers. They also explore urban housing market dynamics, the significance of personal savings rates, and the implications of recent economic trends on homeownership and consumer behavior.

The hosts dive into the latest inflation trends, noting a cooling in consumer prices while questioning if corporations are unfairly keeping prices high. They explore the rise in grocery prices since the pandemic and debate the effectiveness of proposed price gouging policies. The impact of institutional investors on housing dynamics and the complexities of inflation, particularly in essential markets like food and energy, are thoroughly examined. Expect insights mingled with spirited discussions and humor!

In this engaging discussion, Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former IMF and Goldman Sachs expert, shares insights on recent turbulence in global markets. He dives into Japan's distinct monetary policies and their ripple effects, particularly with the yen. The conversation touches on the alarming debt dynamics between the U.S. and Japan, as well as the challenges of navigating post-COVID employment statistics. Brooks also emphasizes urgent economic policy reforms in light of upcoming elections and the need for unity in addressing these issues.

Nick Bunker, Director of North American Economic Research at Indeed, shares his insights on the disappointing July employment report. He and the hosts explore the troubling trends in job gains and rising unemployment, questioning if these signals point towards a recession. They delve into the complexities of the labor market, discussing ghost job postings and the rise in unemployment due to increased labor supply. The conversation includes a fun statistics game and a debate on the implications of recent economic indicators, all wrapped in engaging banter.

Muzaffar Chishti, a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute, dives deep into pressing immigration challenges and reform strategies. He discusses the dramatic post-pandemic surge in immigration, revealing how this influx ties into historical shifts in U.S. policy. Muzaffar highlights the unique contributions of immigrant workers, particularly in low-wage jobs, and emphasizes the need for updated laws to address modern challenges. With insights from Canada’s immigration model, he advocates for a balanced approach to ensure effective reform.

John Leer, Chief Economist at Morning Consult, dives into recent economic data that showcases surprising optimism. He highlights the divergence between consumer sentiment surveys and actual spending behaviors. The conversation touches on how political events are shaping expectations for the upcoming Presidential election and Senate races. Leer also unpacks inflation trends and the complexities of consumer perceptions influenced by social media, all while addressing the ongoing financial struggles consumers face amid rising interest rates.

Chief Economist at The PNC Financial Services Group, Augustine Faucher, discusses the economy, monetary policy, and election implications. Topics include recession indicators, monetary policy role, equilibrium interest rate analysis, consumer debt dynamics, housing data, and election outcomes.

Global Chief Economist from Boston Consulting Group, Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, discusses macro threats and assessing their seriousness. The podcast covers challenges of tracking book sales, analyzing recent CPI data, AI's impact on labor, navigating economic narratives, types of recessions, geopolitics, and US elections.

Dante joins the podcast to break down the June employment report. While everyone agreed that the report was mostly good, concerns remain around the concentration of job gains and the slowdown in hiring. With job growth moderating and the unemployment rate edging higher, the team argues that the time is now for the Fed to start cutting rates. Link to surveyGuest Hosts: Dante DeAntonio - Senior Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.