Gavin Friend

Gavin Friend, NAB’s market economist, breaks down the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold rates steady amid shifting growth and inflation forecasts. He discusses how the Fed is in a 'wait-and-see' mode, particularly influenced by political factors and trade policies. The impacts of tariffs on inflation are considered transitory, according to Powell's remarks. Additionally, Gavin touches on the cautious approaches of the Bank of Japan and Bank of England. Insights into Australia’s job market also highlight expectations for a slight dip in unemployment.

Gavin Friend, a NAB Markets researcher based in London, joins to explore the implications of the US government shutdown on crucial data. He discusses the surprisingly low ADP job numbers and what that indicates for labor trends. The conversation shifts to the ISM manufacturing survey, contrasting it with PMI readings, and dives into Japan’s Tankan survey, hinting at the political significance of recent leadership votes. Gavin also examines European inflation stability and previews upcoming Australian economic indicators, all while analyzing market reactions.

Gavin Friend, an expert from NAB, dives into the turbulent world of global markets. He discusses the fleeting recovery of U.S. equities amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. Listener's will find intriguing insights on Australia’s economic resilience and the potential for aggressive rate cuts by the RBA. Friend also sheds light on the implications of fluctuating oil prices and consumer trends impacting the Federal Reserve’s approach to inflation. Tune in for a reality check on the shifting dynamics of the financial landscape!

In this conversation, Gavin Friend, an economist at NAB, shares valuable insights into current economic trends. He discusses the recent drop in U.S. consumer confidence, marking a 12-year low, and its chilling effect on markets. The podcast highlights contrasting optimism in Europe, particularly Germany's rising business expectations. Additionally, Gavin breaks down the contentious tariff strategies being debated in the U.S., and explores the implications of potential ceasefires in the Ukraine-Russia conflict on global trade.

Gavin Friend, a market economist and strategist at NAB London, unpacks the recent wave of tariff announcements from President Trump and their implications for global markets. He discusses the sharp reactions in currencies, stock prices, and commodities, particularly focusing on the geopolitical factors at play. The talk also covers economic indicators like US PCE numbers and Australian capex, emphasizing how external events, including extreme weather, are influencing jobless claims and employment trends. It's a deep dive into the ever-shifting economic landscape.