NAB Morning Call
Less confidence, less missiles
Mar 25, 2025
In this conversation, Gavin Friend, an economist at NAB, shares valuable insights into current economic trends. He discusses the recent drop in U.S. consumer confidence, marking a 12-year low, and its chilling effect on markets. The podcast highlights contrasting optimism in Europe, particularly Germany's rising business expectations. Additionally, Gavin breaks down the contentious tariff strategies being debated in the U.S., and explores the implications of potential ceasefires in the Ukraine-Russia conflict on global trade.
17:43
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Quick takeaways
- The significant decline in US consumer confidence, hitting a 12-year low, indicates growing concerns about future economic spending and growth prospects.
- Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to impact market sentiment, with cautious optimism for trade negotiations in the Black Sea amidst ongoing uncertainties.
Deep dives
Consumer Confidence Decline
Consumer confidence in the US has experienced a notable decline, with the conference board's indicator dropping for the fourth consecutive month. This decrease is significant, as it falls below the threshold typically associated with economic recessions, signaling potential concern for future consumer spending. Although this decline was anticipated, it underscores a broader trend of diminishing consumer sentiment as economic pressures mount, suggesting a cautious outlook for the economy. The forward-looking expectations index hitting a low not seen since the pandemic further emphasizes the gravity of the situation, raising questions about future growth prospects.
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