NAB Morning Call

Monday 4th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHas Friday’s jobs data been forgotten about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, pointing out that there’s very little movement in bond yields. But there’s been no retracement either and auctions this week will test the mettle of investors as to whether any long-term damage has been done by the BLS sacking and Trump’s moves on the Fed board. There’s been a further move down in oil, as India is threatened with increased tariffs for continuing to buy Russian oil. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were sharp market moves on Friday after all the shenanigans in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill tells us how markets responded to a far weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report, that included two substantial reductions in the numbers for the prior two months. Market repriced expectations for a cut next month. That would seem to give the President what he wanted, but nonetheless he sacked the head of the statistical agency collecting the data. Markets responded to that news. Then one of the Fed board, Adriana Kugler, resigned, effective the end of this week, giving the President the chance to put his own man or woman onto the board. Quite a day! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NZ Super Fund is New Zealand’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF), that has earned a reputation for delivering the strongest returns of any SWF globally. So what’s their secret and how do they perform against private funds?Brad Dunstan, their Chief Investment Officer, says the advantage of time on their side. They don’t have to meet demands for payouts, so they have the luxury of a longer-term view. He also says their Total Portfolio Approach is part of their success and explains to Phil how that works.But does success in the past guarantee success in the future? How is Brad and the team at NZ Super Fund navigating the uncertainties of Trump’s America, the promises of new technologies and the role of Europe in the world order? And how important is New Zealand itself to their investment mix? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYesterday the US President warned there will be no delays on tariffs ahead of the August 1 deadline. Hours later he announced a 90-day delay for Mexico but warned that Canada’s support for Palestine would make a deal difficult. NABs Ken Crompton talks about how non—trade criteria are creeping into the US tariff regime, and it remains uncertain who will get hit with what today. The other big news today is non-farm payrolls tonight, and in earnings Amazon beat revenue forecasts put posted a weaker outlook for Q3, whilst Apple gave a healthier set of figures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast dives into the Federal Reserve’s unexpected hawkish stance and the lingering fears around inflation due to tariffs. It highlights the troubling figures behind the US GDP growth, revealing the misleading indicators fueling optimism. A proposed 50% tariff on copper imports is discussed, raising concerns about market reactions and corporate pricing strategies. Additionally, insights into potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia are explored, alongside key economic indicators that could shape future market dynamics.

Wednesday 30th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil is the big mover overnight as President Trump confirms Russia has just 10 days to end the war before he imposes secondary tariffs. US equities have fallen. Meanwhile, it seems likely that China will have longer to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence is rising, although, as NAB’s Sally Auld points out, the Conference Board report also highlighted growing concerns about the labour market. And the Treasury has said their Q3 borrowing requirement is an eye watering $1 trillion. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe euphoria over a US—EU trade deal didn’t last long. It has helped catapult the US dollar higher, but at the expense of a big fall in the Euro, with European equities also well down. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the about turn, with the realisation that 15% tariffs will slow the European economy. As a result, copper and iron ore prices are well down. Oil, though, is much higher with the prospect of secondary tariffs on Russian oil looming, after President Trump gave Putin 10-to 12 days to sort out a peace deal for Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump announced a trade deal with the EU on Sunday, that sees a 15% tariff on most goods, cars included. Aluminium and steel remain at 50%. In exchange, according to Bloomberg, Europe will not levy any tariffs and will invest an extra $600bn in the US and spend $750bn on US energy. The deadline for a China deal also seems to have been pushed back 90 days. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks through the likely market reaction today, with equities already elevated on Friday from earnings results and some significant earnings results in the week ahead. Also on Friday the US President indicated that it would be too problematic to fire Jerome Powell, but will he still hold that opinion when the Fed holds rates again this week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Rod Sims, chair of the think tank The Super Power Institute, joins Phil to talk about Australia’s green iron opportunity. He says we have all the ingredients – the raw materials and the environment – to produce green iron, rather than shipping iron ore and coking coal overseas for carbon-intensive processing. But he admits in the short-term Australian produced green iron will be a more expensive proposition for markets like China and, in the absence of global carbon pricing, the government will need to step in with subsidies. The long-term opportunity, though, will make it all worthwhile. The Institute's own figures suggest green iron could generate $386 billion annually in exports by 2060, compared to around $120 billion now for iron ore. That requires a strategy and deep pockets from the government. Phil asks, are they on board with this? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump is stepping up the pressure on Jerome Powell as he ‘drops by’ the Fed, before heading off to the UK for the weekend. Markets have been a little more concerned about PMIs and central banks, though. The ECB kept rates on hold but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill point out, Christine Lagarde was hawkish in the press conference. Phil asks if he could have seen the last rate cut in this cycle. Meanwhile Michelle Bullock reiterated the cautious approach of the RBA at a lunch in Sydney yesterday. As far as PMIs are concerned, the US did better than Europe, with the UK the clear loser. Today UK retail sales will be of interest, along with durable goods orders in the US. Plus, of course, earnings and tariff news.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.