NAB Morning Call

Doug Steele, a Senior economist specializing in New Zealand's macroeconomic trends, joins Gareth Spence, Head of Australian economics at NAB, to discuss the contrasting economic paths of their countries. Doug reveals New Zealand's ongoing recession, characterized by weak GDP growth and rising unemployment, while Gareth highlights Australia's population-driven economic resilience. They delve into labor market shifts, inflation risks, and the impact of monetary policies, alongside a nuanced discussion on productivity and central bank strategies.

Gavin Friend, a NAB Markets analyst based in London, shares insights on the recent Trump-Xi trade deal that surprisingly left markets lukewarm. He discusses how this deal impacts central banks' cautious stances, particularly the ECB and the Bank of Japan. Gavin dives into the mixed results from big tech earnings, drawing parallels between Nvidia's role in the market and historical gold rush dynamics. The conversation also highlights the implications of weak Chinese PMIs on global trade and growth.

Sally Auld, an expert NAB economist, dives into the recent Fed rate cut decision, highlighting internal divisions within the FOMC. She explains how a surprising spike in Australia's CPI could delay expected rate cuts from the RBA until May. The discussion also touches on the implications of halting quantitative tightening and previews upcoming decisions from the Bank of Japan and ECB. With insights into the broader economic landscape, Auld brings clarity to complex central bank dynamics.

Ken Crompton, NAB Markets economist, provides deep insights into the current economic landscape. He discusses the surprising slide in US consumer confidence amid a federal shutdown and its impact on lower-income households. The conversation shifts to the upcoming tech earnings and the question of whether AI will truly boost productivity. Ken also highlights the significance of Australia’s CPI data for the RBA's decisions on interest rates, alongside updates on volatile regional Fed surveys and the geopolitical tensions affecting markets.

Ray Attrill, a Senior Markets Strategist at NAB, dives into the recent market shifts, spotlighting the Aussie dollar's surprising rise influenced by US-China optimism. He discusses the impact of the PBoC's stronger yuan fixing and how RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s cautious remarks recalibrated expectations for a November rate hike. The conversation also touches on key US economic indicators and the evolving landscape of global trade, providing listeners with valuable insights into current market dynamics.

Rodrigo Catril, a NAB Markets researcher and economist, joins Phil to discuss a whirlwind week in finance. They dive into the upbeat tone of Xi-Trump talks and the potential easing of tariffs. Rodrigo breaks down the slower-than-expected US CPI, raising the odds of a Fed rate cut. They also touch on the impacts of the US government shutdown and evaluate concerns over European growth. Other hot topics include expectations for Australian CPI and major upcoming tech earnings from giants like Apple and Amazon.

James Carouso, a senior foreign policy adviser with 25 years at the U.S. Department of State, shares insights on the newly announced $13 billion rare earths deal and the AUKUS defense agreement between the U.S. and Australia. He highlights its significance in reducing U.S. reliance on China and the potential for Australia to boost onshore processing. They discuss the implications of tariffs, investment opportunities, and how this partnership might reshape trade dynamics, especially concerning China and steel tariffs. Carouso also reflects on past negotiations with Trump.

In this discussion, Skye Masters, a NAB Markets commentator and economist, dives into the impact of Trump's sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. He explains how these sanctions have caused oil prices to spike due to India and China's paused purchases. The chat also highlights the potential economic fallout for Russia and global supply dynamics. Additionally, the upcoming release of CPI numbers is scrutinized amid concerns over data reliability, with implications for future Federal Reserve actions.

Thursday 23rd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ray Attrill, a Senior NAB Markets strategist, dives into the intriguing dynamics of recent market movements. He analyzes the sharp drop in gold and silver, attributing it to speculative behaviors and ETF-driven buying. The uncertainty surrounding Trump's remarks about a potential meeting with Xi adds to market volatility. Ray also discusses the breakdown of typical asset correlations, questions the sustainability of sub-4% Treasury yields, and explores how shifts in Canadian and UK CPI might influence central bank rate decisions.