NAB Morning Call

Friday 23rd January 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Tom Holland, deputy global research director at Gavekal, argues that Donald Trump’s flurry of geopolitical moves — from abducting Nicolás Maduro to threatening Iran and making claims on Greenland — is best read as strategic signalling aimed at China rather than random headline chasing. By disrupting Venezuelan and potentially Iranian oil flows, Washington is reminding Beijing how exposed it is to imported energy, while the sudden fixation on Greenland reflects US fears of China and Russia expanding into an increasingly accessible Arctic. Layered on top is a deep contradiction in Trump’s promise of “energy dominance”: US drillers need high prices to invest, while Trump promises voters cheap fuel. Markets, meanwhile, have largely tuned out of the geopolitical noise. The result, Tom says, is a mix of genuine strategic messaging and Trump’s trademark “flood the zone” chaos — a pattern that will shape, and probably destabilise, the months ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets are reacting to geopolitical shifts as President Trump's Greenland U-turn steadies equities while keeping gold high. A surprising drop in Australia’s unemployment rate has traders eyeing a potential February interest rate hike. Meanwhile, the US sees stronger spending and GDP revisions, coupled with improving jobless claims. New Zealand struggles with a dip in retail sales, while Japan treads cautiously with its yen and monetary policy amidst upcoming CPI risks. Plus, expectations rise for global PMIs and retail figures across Europe and North America.

Thursday 22nd January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump used his Davos address to insist there is “no going back” on his push to acquire Greenland, ruling out military action but signalling that more tariffs on Europe look inevitable — a stance that has kept gold at fresh highs even as broader markets remain relatively calm. Currencies and bonds were quiet overnight, with the Aussie dollar firmer and JGB yields retracing, while US equities stabilised after yesterday’s sharp fall. Oil is little changed, but the IEA warns that rising surplus stocks will keep prices capped despite stronger non‑OECD demand this year. Hopes of a Ukraine breakthrough faded with President Zelensky absent from Davos, and the US Supreme Court appeared sceptical over the case to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, hinting the central bank may not be as heavily reshaped as expected. US pending home sales slumped in December, UK inflation was mixed, and attention now turns to today’s Australian employment data and US releases including core PCE, income and spending. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ken Crompton, a market economist and strategist at NAB, delves into the fallout from Trump's Greenland comments, discussing the turmoil in currencies and bonds. He highlights the sharp sell-off in Japan's bonds, likening it to a 'Liz Truss moment' due to unfunded tax cuts. The conversation covers the fragility of US-European trade ties, rising commodity prices, and the shifting landscape of global finance, emphasizing the implications for investors and policymakers alike.

Tuesday 20th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump’s renewed push on Greenland and fresh tariff threats against Europe have markets bracing for possible retaliation, with EU leaders signalling they may hold firm rather than concede — even hinting at using their anti‑coercion powers, despite German hesitation. Precious metals are surging as investors hedge the “Greenland crisis”, while currencies and bonds move only modestly in a session thinned by the US holiday. European equities are weaker, China’s latest data remain soft, and Canada’s inflation mix adds to global CPI nerves ahead of the US print. With Davos only just underway — and memories of last year’s sharply anti‑EU Trump video address still fresh — the next 24 hours will determine whether this escalates into a trade war or proves to be little more than a storm in a teacup. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through it all. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 19th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets open the week a little snowblind, with investors unsure how to process President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland and the threat of tariffs on European countries that oppose the idea. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to sift through the market reaction, alongside shifting expectations for the next Fed chair — with Kevin Hassett fading and Kevin Warsh now the frontrunner — plus a firmer US dollar, softer Aussie, weaker equities, rising bond yields and a yen that’s clawing back amid talk of possible intervention. China’s GDP and industrial production are due, so it Canada’s CPI, with the US closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day and the World Economic Forum kicking off in Davos. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th January 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia’s housing market keeps getting more expensive, yet the real issue isn’t just how many homes we build — it’s how slowly they are changing hands. Dr Nicola Powell, chief economist at Domain, says turnover has become a structural drag, creating inefficiencies that stem far more from policy settings than from raw supply. Even with immigration easing, demand still outpaces movement, and rising prices continue to inflate the value of the national housing stock far faster than the number of dwellings themselves. Building approvals have jumped, apartment plans are surging, and forecasts point to further price gains in 2026, but the deeper question remains: why isn’t the market slowing? From interest‑rate dynamics and construction costs to population shifts and the FOMO factor, today’s episode digs into the mechanics behind a market that pushes prices ever high, well beyond the bounds of affordability. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe mood in markets has brightened as tensions around Iran appear to have eased, with President Trump signalling a softer military stance, and attention has swung back to stronger‑than‑expected US data — lower jobless claims, upbeat regional manufacturing surveys and a solid equity rebound led by tech and small caps. Oil has slumped sharply, bond yields are higher in the US and UK, and the US dollar is firmer, while the UK has surprised with a 0.3% rise in November GDP that keeps the quarter out of the red. With a quieter day ahead — NZ PMI, US industrial production and the NAHB housing index, NAB’s Gavin Friend makes sense of a week that ends much calmer than it began. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ken Compton, a NAB markets commentator known for his sharp insights into global financial dynamics, joins the discussion to unravel the current market unease. The conversation dives into the significant retreat from big tech stocks towards small caps and precious metals, highlighting record highs in gold and silver. Compton also analyzes the implications of a striking US$1.2 trillion trade surplus for China and the impact of mixed US bank earnings. Additionally, tensions in the Middle East and their economic repercussions are explored, adding a geopolitical layer to market movements.

Wednesday 14th January 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA softer run of US inflation has kept hopes of further rate cuts alive, even as markets juggle mixed earnings, fragile consumer sentiment in Australia, signs of recovery in New Zealand, and a surge in Japanese yields driven by election rumours. Commodities are climbing on geopolitical tension, with President Trump’s “help is on its way” message to Iranian protesters fuelling speculation of US action and adding to the broader sense of unease. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.