Monday 10th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe downturn in shares, the weaker dollar and rising bond yields are all part of the detox, according to Scott Bessant, as money shifts from government spending to the private sector. So, it’s a temporary setback, he believes. But the Trump administration probably didn’t foresee the massive investment happening in Europe. What does that mean for the future direction of the US dollar and the Aussie, which is rising against it? Questions Phil puts to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of a week where tariffs will again be front and centre, maybe as soon as today. They also discuss US payrolls numbers, China’s CPI and the latest from Canada.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 28th February 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The theme for International Women’s Day this year is Accelerate Action - to move faster towards gender equality. It seems progress has slowed lately in Australia. Last year 37 percent of board members in ASX300 companies were women, but only 14% of those companies had a female chair, and there were none in the top 20 companies on the ASX.This week Phil talks to two senior executives about how they climbed the corporate ladder and the obstacles they faced: Anna Hughes, CEO of the Australian Office of Financial Management (the funding arm of the Australian Government) and Fiona Trigona, Executive General Manager, Group Treasurer, of NBN Co. What lessons can they provide for aspiring young women with an appetite to quickly move higher in business?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 7th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a difficult high wire act for the ECB right now. They have cut rates as inflation comes down, but they have also forecast less growth. But, Phil suggests, it’s a strange scenario to be cutting rates whilst yields are pushing markedly higher on the back of a sharp rise in government spending. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the uncertainty of USA tariffs could also hit growth, but the experience in North America shows there’s no guarantees. They’re on, then they’re off. Meanwhile a blowout in US imports as Canadian exporters in particular sought to move goods over the border before tariffs hit.   Today the focus is on non-farm payrolls. Will they show any impacts from DOGE and which direction are wages moving now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 6th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGerman bund prices have seen the biggest single day fall since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, pushing 10 year yields up30bp.  It’s a similar story all over Europe, whilst movement in the US has been relatively tame. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it is all on the back of extra spending on defence and infrastructure in German, outside the limits of their discal brake. It’s all happening ahead of an expected cut by the ECB later on. Market moves were less pronounced all round in the US – equities have rebounded, helped later in the session as rumours of some backtracking on the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico turned to reality. There’s also discussion on Australia’s GDP yesterday and yesterday’s US Services ISM. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 5th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt has been an alarming 24 hours. The US has applied tariffs on Mexico and Canada, added to those already applied to China, and pulled funding for Ukraine’s war effort. Share markets have responded the world over, but not as much in the US as you might expect. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the response has been stronger in Europe, presumably on the realisation that Trump’s word should now be taken literally. The impact of a trade war -with China, Canada and Mexico all likely to retaliate, is obvious. Prices will rise and demand will fall. Markets have taken the inevitable economic slowdown as a reason for the Fed to cut more and sooner - but Ray thinks it’ll be hard to cut in such an inflationary environment. Meanwhile, the US President is forcing Europe to come together, with Germany announcing new defence spending and Europe allowing members to go beyond their fiscal limits for military spending. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 4th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUkraine is behind a world of difference between US and European markets today. European leaders are resigned to the need to spend more to defend Ukraine and Eastern Europe, pushing bond yields higher and equities also rising sharply, led by European defence stocks. In the US stocks are sharply down, led by the tech sector, with bond yields also falling. The ISM manufacturing index fell much more than expected, with concerns about tariff uncertainty, but rising prices also showing in the data. NAB’s Skye Masters wonders whether markets have fully responded to the price data, which could be a warning sign for further inflation against a slowing economy. Today, Australia’s focus will be on retail sales, and the extent to which we could be impacted by a new agricultural tariff just announced by President Trump. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tapas Strickland, NAB’s market economist and strategist, dives into pressing economic concerns. He discusses the potential peace talks between Ukraine and key political leaders, breathing optimism into the market. Strickland highlights signs of U.S. economic weakness, including increased trade deficits and shifting consumer behavior. He raises alarms about possible rate cuts amid these developments and examines the implications of tariffs on North American trade. Unique insights on global inflation trends and Australian economic forecasts are also revealed.

Dr. John Kunkel, a Senior Economics Advisor at the United States Studies Centre, dives into the economic repercussions of Trump's policies on Australia. He discusses how Australia's relationship with the U.S. is evolving under these unpredictable strategies. The conversation touches on the complexities of tariffs, the need for increased defense spending, and navigating trade dynamics with both the U.S. and China. Kunkel emphasizes that while challenges exist, Australia is strategically positioned to benefit from U.S. growth, despite the tumultuous global landscape.

Gavin Friend, a market economist and strategist at NAB London, unpacks the recent wave of tariff announcements from President Trump and their implications for global markets. He discusses the sharp reactions in currencies, stock prices, and commodities, particularly focusing on the geopolitical factors at play. The talk also covers economic indicators like US PCE numbers and Australian capex, emphasizing how external events, including extreme weather, are influencing jobless claims and employment trends. It's a deep dive into the ever-shifting economic landscape.

Ray Attrill, NAB's market strategist, dives into the latest tariff delays for Mexico and Canada and announces the hefty 25% tariffs set for Europe. He shares insights on how these changes are impacting market reactions and trade relations. With a weaker-than-expected CPI in Australia, Attrill highlights potential monetary policy shifts and rate cuts. The discussion also touches on trends in private construction and what these economic indicators could mean for future growth and consumer confidence.