NAB Morning Call

Friday 12th December 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB’s trading division, headed by Tim McCaughey, facilitates trades requested by a range of clients, from hedge funds, through to corporates and pension funds. So how does it work? Tim says it works like a grocery store - they buy the goods, add a margin and sell on. Except its not a grocery store, its trading rooms in Australia, London, New York and Asia. But just like a retailer, the secret is knowing what to buy, how to price it and how long to hang onto it.Phil tries to pry into how Tim and his team balance the risk in all this buying and selling, how the liquidity is managed, and the role of AI and algorithms in today’s trading environment. And has President Trump been good or bad for traders? Tim talks us through how things went on Liberation Day.A fascinating chat, even if Tim refuses to give away the contents of his secret sauce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Gavin Friend, a NAB markets economist based in London, breaks down the latest Aussie jobs figures and their implications for the RBA's tightening policy. He discusses the fallout from the recent Fed meeting, highlighting a cautious tone and shifting market expectations. The podcast delves into the US trade deficit and potential impacts on GDP, alongside insights on Oracle's AI investments affecting tech shares. Gavin also reviews the Swiss National Bank's decision on interest rates and shares thoughts on UK economic forecasts amid political uncertainty.

Sally Auld, a markets economist and strategist at NAB, shares her insights on the latest Federal Reserve rate cut and the implications of dissenting opinions within the committee. She discusses the cautious language used by the Fed and the potential end to easing cycles for major global central banks. There’s also talk about Canada’s steady rates, Europe’s improving growth forecasts, and what Australia’s employment data might mean for future RBA decisions. Auld's keen analysis offers a fascinating peek into the complex world of economic policymaking.

Wednesday 10th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA’s worry about rising capacity utilisation has increased the possibility of a rate hike as soon as February. We dig into what the NAB business survey revealed and how traders are pricing the odds. Overseas the focus is on the Fed early tomorrow morning (expected to cut) and the Bank of Canada overnight (expected to hold). Polus, what are the latest JOLTs numbers telling us about the US labour market? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Taylor Nugent, a NAB Markets economist, shares insights on bond yields and central bank policies. He explains how rising European bond yields are influenced by a hawkish ECB, while the U.S. grapples with uncertainty on rate cuts. Taylor also highlights China's rebound in exports and its shift towards boosting domestic demand. Further, he analyzes Japan's wage growth and the Bank of Japan's outlook. Lastly, the NAB business survey is poised to provide critical insights into capacity utilization.

Ken Crompton, NAB's markets economist, dives into the shifting landscape of global bond yields and central bank expectations. He discusses the anticipated RBA hold versus a likely Fed rate cut, highlighting the surge in Australian yields. Ken also explores Japan's rising bond yields in light of potential BOJ tightening. He reviews U.S. inflation data and its influence on consumer spending and Fed decisions, while connecting these themes to Canada's unexpected job gains and China's trade dynamics.

Sally Auld, a Senior NAB economist, dives into Australia's unique economic navigation post-inflation. She contrasts Australia’s gentle approach with New Zealand's harsher tactics, emphasizing how the RBA's cautious rate rises preserved jobs. Sally warns that limited spare capacity poses risks if growth accelerates too quickly, potentially igniting inflation. She discusses key indicators the RBA monitors and considers two scenarios for 2026, leaving listeners pondering the delicate balance of maintaining stability without tipping into inflation.

Skye Masters, a NAB markets economist and strategist specializing in bond markets and central bank policy, shares insights on rising bond yields in Japan and Australia. She explains how Japanese 10-year yields have hit a multi-year high, creating an attractive opportunity for investors. Skye connects surprising Australian household spending figures to expectations of a soon-to-come RBA rate hike, with markets pricing in potential February tightening. The conversation explores the implications of these trends for market dynamics and investor strategies.

Ken Crompton, a senior economist at NAB, joins to dissect the latest US job numbers, which fell short of expectations, hinting at potential Fed rate cuts. He also examines Australia's Q3 GDP, which shows weakness in headlines but strength in demand. The discussion touches on the implications for the RBA's monetary policy, alongside insights into global services PMIs, from China's subdued performance to a sharp drop in Canada's activity. Crompton connects the dots between domestic and international economic signals, offering a comprehensive outlook.

In this insightful discussion, Taylor Nugent, NAB's markets economist based in Sydney, shares his expert analysis on Australia’s GDP and financial trends. He highlights that recent GDP numbers suggest a stronger than anticipated growth of 2.2% year on year. Taylor also delves into the dynamics of bond yields in Japan, touching on the implications of a potential BoJ rate hike. Additionally, the conversation covers the increasing risk appetite in markets, propelling stocks and Bitcoin upward amid changing investor sentiments.