NAB Morning Call

Friday 19th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia has managed to steer its own course through a turbulent 2025. Taylor Nugent explains how the RBA resisted the urge to slash rates early in the year, instead holding firm as inflation proved more stubborn than expected. That stance kept the economy balanced while other central banks lurched between easing and tightening. Compared with New Zealand’s harsher approach and the US’s tariff‑driven dilemmas, Australia’s policy mix looks measured – not perfect, but enough to avoid the extremes.Rodrigo Catril adds that the Aussie dollar has been resilient, even if it hasn’t fully matched the US dollar’s swings. Its fortunes are now more tied to China and Asian sentiment than Wall Street, and with local rates set to rise while the Fed eases, he sees the currency heading towards 70 cents. Ken Crompton rounds out the picture with bonds, noting strong demand for Australian debt and a widening yield gap with the US. Together, the NAB team sketch a story of a country that hasn’t soared, but hasn’t stumbled either – Australia has held its own. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Gavin Friend, a London-based NAB Markets economist, dives into the latest central bank maneuvers impacting global markets. He analyzes the Bank of England's narrow rate cut decision and the ECB's cautious stance amid uncertain forecasts. The discussion also reveals Germany's potential growth rebound, the Bank of Japan's expected rate hike, and the implications of US inflation data. Lastly, Friend highlights New Zealand's surprisingly strong GDP, hinting at possible shifts in fiscal policy as we head into the new year.

Thursday 18th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a big Thursday, with markets bracing for the BoE and ECB after UK CPI surprised with outright deflation. German sentiment disappointed again, and Japan’s stronger exports added to the case for a BoJ hike tomorrow. All eyes are on the November U.S. CPI release later today. Equities remain under pressure with no Santa Claus rally in sight, oil prices edge higher amid Trump’s Russian tanker threats, and silver hits fresh highs. Meanwhile, New Zealand shows signs of recovery with improved confidence and GDP prospects. Ray Attrill joins for his final time in 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Taylor Nugent, a NAB Markets economist, dives into the imminent RBA rate hikes expected in early 2026, emphasizing stronger growth and inflation risks. He discusses the surprising US payrolls data and the impact of unemployment rates on Fed cut expectations. The analysis of mixed global PMIs reveals a unique improvement in the UK, despite the Bank of England's cautious stance. Nugent also touches on consumer confidence linked to rate changes and previews an eventful week for central bank decisions.

Tuesday 16th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina’s economy is still struggling to find momentum, with retail sales growth slipping to its weakest pace since 2022 and investment dropping sharply. Property prices are sliding too, adding to the lack of confidence, and oil markets are feeling the knock‑on effect. Japan, on the other hand, looks brighter: the Tankan survey beat expectations, strengthening the case for a rate hike later this week. Meanwhile, Europe’s industrial production is picking up and Canada surprised with outright deflation in November.Today the focus is on the late running US jobs data for November – finally something up to date, although we’ll have to guess what happened in October. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this insightful discussion, Sally Auld, NAB's markets economist, shares her expertise on pivotal global economic shifts. She delves into the implications of recent Fed dissents and the timing snafu with U.S. payroll data. Sally highlights the UK's troubling GDP figures just ahead of the Bank of England's meeting and contrasts this with other European central banks that are expected to maintain steady rates. Additionally, she reviews promising data from New Zealand and deciphers European inflation trends, all while previewing crucial upcoming global data.

Tim McCaughey, NAB's Head of Trading, shares insights into the intricate world of market-making. He likens trading to running a grocery store, explaining how they manage buying, pricing, and selling various asset classes. Discussions dive into balancing risk and profit, the vital role of AI in trading, and how geopolitical events influence market volatility. Tim also reveals how algorithms shape FX pricing and the importance of human oversight during crises, making it clear that while technology evolves, human intuition remains key.

Gavin Friend, a NAB markets economist based in London, breaks down the latest Aussie jobs figures and their implications for the RBA's tightening policy. He discusses the fallout from the recent Fed meeting, highlighting a cautious tone and shifting market expectations. The podcast delves into the US trade deficit and potential impacts on GDP, alongside insights on Oracle's AI investments affecting tech shares. Gavin also reviews the Swiss National Bank's decision on interest rates and shares thoughts on UK economic forecasts amid political uncertainty.

Sally Auld, a markets economist and strategist at NAB, shares her insights on the latest Federal Reserve rate cut and the implications of dissenting opinions within the committee. She discusses the cautious language used by the Fed and the potential end to easing cycles for major global central banks. There’s also talk about Canada’s steady rates, Europe’s improving growth forecasts, and what Australia’s employment data might mean for future RBA decisions. Auld's keen analysis offers a fascinating peek into the complex world of economic policymaking.

Wednesday 10th December 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA’s worry about rising capacity utilisation has increased the possibility of a rate hike as soon as February. We dig into what the NAB business survey revealed and how traders are pricing the odds. Overseas the focus is on the Fed early tomorrow morning (expected to cut) and the Bank of Canada overnight (expected to hold). Polus, what are the latest JOLTs numbers telling us about the US labour market? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.