NAB Morning Call

Friday 19th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A couple of weeks ago we talked about how Stablecoin in the US was seen as a means to drive demand for the expanding supply of US treasuries. What we didn’t touch on  was why people would want to use Stablecoin.’ There are so many different use cases,’ says Drew Bradford, CEO of Catena Digital, currently Australia’s only stablecoin provider. Phil asks whether it will; move from the finance sector to cover more B2B payments, and beyond to B2C transactions.There are clear benefits: it’s faster and cheaper than legacy systems. Drew adds that its more flexible, with the ability to program transactions. That’s useful for traders but could also apply to broader transactions where payment is made on delivery, for example?So if it’s such a golden opportunity, what are the risks? How should it be regulated? And what’s the upside potential for Australian stablecoin providers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a busy week for central banks, with many staying on hold. The Bank of England was one of them, but they did announce a slowdown in their QT program. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the path for the BoE, the glacial rate of cuts from the Norge Bank and expectations for the Bank of Japan today. Meanwhile markets have responded well to the Fed’s more hawkish outlook, helped a little perhaps by a sharp rise in the Philly Fed manufacturing index. They also discuss yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and the softer GDP print for New Zealand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ken Crompton, an economist from NAB Markets Research, dives into the recent rate cut by the Fed and its implications for the markets. He discusses Jerome Powell's cautious yet strategic approach amid rising inflation and potential labor market weaknesses. The conversation also touches on the Bank of Canada's rate cut, the anticipation surrounding the Bank of England's decisions, and what upcoming Australian employment data might mean for the RBA. Crompton's insights shed light on the dynamics of global central banking.

Tuesday 14th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are a little more cautious today a day out from the Fed. Maybe it’s been compounded by stronger tbhan expected data out of the us, particularly retail sales. Maybe less cuts will be needed. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether we can expect some market repricing after the dots plot from the Fed tomorrow morning. And the Euro hit a 4 year high. And it’s not just the Fed in the next 24 hours; there’s also the Bank of Canada after a softer than expected CPI read overnight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are positioning themselves for the Fed and the assumption seems to be that the cut this week will be the start of a broader easing cycle. But what if it isn’t? NAB’s Sally Auld says growth and unemployment are both tracking close to the Fed’s forecasts in June, so we are unlikely to see a mass revision to the dots at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. The activity data out of China was not a good news story, though. Sally talks Phil through the numbers, and they look ahead to a busy calendar for the next 24 hours, including US retail sales, Canadian and NZ CPI and UK unemployment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar has broken free from the holding pattern that has kept it below 66 US cents all year. On today’s podcast Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why now, for a risk-sensitive currency, when there is still so much global uncertainty. That uncertainty was reflected in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on Friday, which showed US inflation expectations were rising. This week is a big one for central banks, with decisions being made in the US, UK, Canada and Japan. Two cuts and two on hold? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Maybe it’s not just the Fed that’s having its independence challenged. This week independent economist Paul Mortimer-Lee wonders whether the Bank of England is now more focused on preventing the economy from tanking that it is concerned about inflation. He provides a pessimistic outlook for the UK economy, which he says is suffering from successive high spending governments. He says it needs an IMF bailout – it doesn’t need the cash, but it needs a dose of the hard medicine that the IMF doles out. Assuming that doesn’t happen, then the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of a less independent Fed, where rates are cut to boost growth, with less concern about the return of inflation. The upshot, he reckons, is much lower rates and inflation bouncing back. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation numbers overnight weren’t too far from market expectations, but NAB’s Sally Auld points out that the core rate for August was close to a rounding error that could have been uncomfortable (0.4% rather than 0.3%). That print, combined with continued growing labour weakness in the weekly jobless claims, was enough to push bond yields down (US 10-year yields got down to 3.99%) and drive equities to new record highs. The ECB kept rates on hold, with no further cuts on the horizon, particularly as they are forecasting economic growth of just 1% next year. Speaking of slow growth, UK GDP is out later today. For one man’s take on what’s going wrong with Britain, listen to Paul Mortimer-Lee on the weekend edition out later today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rodrigo Catril from NAB, an expert in market economics, shares insights on the recent shifts in wealth among the world's richest individuals and the impact of declining U.S. producer prices. He discusses how US tariffs are affecting international oil purchases and China's deflationary trends. Catril also navigates the complexities of monetary policies in a fluctuating economy, examining the strength of the Australian dollar against global currencies and forecasting its future amid rising inflation.

Wednesday 10th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAlthough we said yesterday that revisions to the BLS jobs data for the year to March are a piece of history, the size of the downward revision does flag the issue about just how accurate these numbers are. The revision basically wipes out half the jobs growth for the year to March, following a big revision down the year before. The markets didn’t respond too much to the data, but it provided an opportunity for Scott Bessent to call for faster cuts and question the effectiveness of the Fed. Markets were also constrained in their reaction to the Israeli bombing of a building in central Doha - oil rose a little and gold reached another new high. Today, the inflation numbers start to flow through, with CPI and PPI for China and PPI for US (CPI tomorrow). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.