NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 15th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOnce again, US markets seem unphased by the log list of tariffs from the US president, perhaps because he has indicated he is willing to negotiate, and it’s just seen as a negotiating tactic. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about whether we’ll see signs of the impact in US inflation data today. Yesterday’s data from China showed the resilience of their export markets, and where trade is switching to from the US. Also today, banks earnings results n the US and the UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, around this time tomorrow, trying to regain confidence in the UK as she promises to be ruthless on cutting red tape. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOver the weekend President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting from August 1st. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent suggests, it’s another delay in the implementation of tariffs and it has stopped the EU from enforcing retaliatory measures planned for this week whilst negotiations continue. More concerning for markets might be the Trump administration’s moves to oust Jerome Powell from his role at the Fed, building a legal case on the cost overrun of renovations!The focus this week will be on US CPI and Australian labour market data,plus earnings with banks reporting from tomorrow and Netflix later in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11h July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The ABS is abandoning its monthly retail trade numbers, in favour of a more in-depth analysis of consumption in the revamped monthly Household Spending report. There’s a fundamental difference between the two. The Retail Trade data was based on a time consuming survey of retailers, the Household Spending report uses real data from banks, supermarkets and car retailers.Robert Ewing is Program Manager, Business Statistical Production & Futures Branch at the ABS. Phil asks him what’s new in this report, is it accurate and what sort of enhancements can be expect down the track?  It all sounds like a big step forward, but any chance we can get it quicker? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ray Attrill, NAB's market economist and strategist, shares his expertise on recent market happenings. He discusses President Trump's unexpected 50% tariff on Brazilian imports and how markets surprisingly remained unfazed, even as US equities rose. Attrill delves into the implications for global trade and inflation, noting how exporters are adapting to tariff challenges. The conversation also touches on US job data, the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, and the Australian dollar's rise amidst shifting economic winds.

Thursday 10th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis has to be one of the quietest sessions in quite a while. President Trump did send out more tariff letters, but avoiding alarming demands and aimed at relatively minor trading partners. There was a stronger than expected response to a 10-year Treasury auction which, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says did move yields lower, although those moves had started ahead of the auction. The Fed minutes this morning show how divided the US central bank is on how quickly to move rates - or whether to move at all this year -and the impact of tariffs on the economy. There’s also discussion about the RBNZ yesterday, China’s inflation data and what to look out for today. Spoiler alert: not much! .  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has made more proclamations, including a 50 percent tariff on copper imports. A deal is supposedly progressing with the EU, which could see trade in aircraft and parts exempt and a reduction for some car manufacturers. If the deal falls through there’s a threat that Europe’s 20% base tariff will rise to 50%. Markets have responded cautiously, perhaps too cautiously suggests NAB’s Skye Masters, who says it’ll also be interesting to see how a 10-year Treasury auction is received tonight. Phil also asks her about why the RBA decision yesterday was such a surprise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

New tariffs target Japan, South Korea, and South Africa, igniting discussions about their effect on international trade and market responses. Mild reactions in US equities raise questions about imminent economic shifts. The impact of the Federal Reserve's policies is scrutinized, especially regarding rising debt costs and GDP growth. Meanwhile, surprising industrial growth in Germany and trade talks between the EU and US weave into the global economic narrative. Business confidence insights ahead of the RBA meeting reveal the balancing act of inflation and rate expectations.

Ray Attrill, NAB's market strategist, dives into the whirlwind of market volatility sparked by new US tariffs. He discusses the unfolding uncertainty as negotiations commence with 18 nations and anticipates a turbulent week in financial markets. Attrill also examines OPEC+'s decision to boost oil production, hinting at a shift in pricing strategies. The conversation touches on Australian consumer spending trends and the looming rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ, all while contemplating the broader implications for global economic stability.

Join Dr. Debra Leiter, an Associate Professor of Political Science & Philosophy at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, as she dives into the implications of President Trump's approval ratings on the upcoming midterms. She discusses the 'iron law of mid-term loss' and how current voter sentiments indicate a potential Republican victory. Leiter also questions what happens next for the presidency and the future of U.S. politics—will it shift back to the center or lean further left? Tune in for critical insights on the political landscape!

Friday 4th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded to what seemed like a strong set of payrolls numbers in the US, although the rate of new private jobs fell. Still, the unemployment rate also nudged lower. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what this means for market pricing for Fed cuts this year. The rest of the day’s data from the US were also largely positive, including the ISM Services index, the weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders.  Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed the House, meeting the deadline and adding to the positive vibes at the end of a shortened week. Today, Australia’s Household Spending Indicator is released. It’ll be interested to compare its figures with the weakness shown in the Retail Spending data published earlier in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.