Friday 17th January 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The ABS Labour Market data showed a strong rise in the number of people employed in Australia. The unemployment rate at 4 percent is where it was a year ago, but more people have joined the workforce. So, why are more people taking on jobs? Phil talks to Bjorn Jarvis, branch head for Labour Statistics at the ABS. He provides some useful answers about who these new workers are and the perplexity about why Australia has a higher participation rate than many other countries. He provides some useful insights, but naturally steers away from the question everyone has -  is this low level of unemployment and high participation inflationary? And, after a year around 4 percent, is there anything to suggest the unemployment rate will tick higher anytime soon? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded to a more dovish stance taken by the Fed’s Chrsitopher Waller, interviewed on CNBC. There was also some reassurance from the confirmation hearing into the intended Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he said exactly what markets wanted to hear, including his commitment to the independence of the Fed. Whilst strong retail data in the US supports the case for an economy doing well, UK GDP growth has stalled and the ECB minutes highlighted that monetary policy might be too aggressive in light of slow economic growth, that could cause an undershoot inflation targeting. There’s also discussion about yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and what the resilience means for the direction of the RBA. And today we find out whether China hit their 5% growth target last year, alongside a number of economic indicators. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ken Crompton, NAB’s market economist, shares insights on the recent CPI data, revealing its potential to prompt multiple Fed rate cuts this year. He discusses how declining inflation is impacting bond markets, causing yields to fall across the globe. Crompton also highlights the surprising employment data from Australia, pondering whether it indicates a tight labor market or prompts a shift in the RBA's inflation views. The geopolitical ceasefire in the Middle East barely affected market responses, with optimism prevailing in equities and bonds.

Wednesday 15th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are holding out for today’s US CPI print, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says its unlikely to move the dial much on the timing of Fed rate moves. The US dollar is weaker, for once, perhaps because of reports that Donald Trump will drip-feed tariff increases to help contain inflationary impacts. He is, meanwhile, talking up his policy on energy dominance from day one. There’s also discussion on Australian consumer confidence, Chinas credit data, US and NZ business confidence – they couldn’t be further apart – and the plethora of Fed speakers getting their oar in today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar continues to rise. Bond yields are also pushing higher. How long can this continue for? How much is because of rising concerns about persistent inflation, and how much is priced in for Trump uncertainty? If it’s the latter, could some of these moves quickly unwind, particularly if the new president’s bark is worse than his bite? All questions Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on today’s podcast, plus the rising price of oil, trade data from China and the latest take-outs from speakers from the ECB, BoJ and the Fed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th January 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil on the podcast this morning, where the inflation outlook is very different to where we were before Christmas. Ray says Fed-speak last week was already pushing back expectations for a rate cut in the US, then a much stronger than anticipated payrolls number of Friday reaffirmed those concerns. That’s pushed yields higher and weekend equities, whilst the US dollar continues to rise, at the expense of all other major currencies. With US inflation data this week, prepare for a choppy one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

2024 has been a rollercoaster for the economy, showcasing surprising U.S. growth amidst global challenges. As markets soar with AI influences, concerns about Trump’s tariffs loom large. The discussion turns to rising inflation and its repercussions for central banks like the Reserve Bank of Australia. Predictions swirl about the bond market and fluctuating currencies, particularly the Aussie dollar. Strategies for navigating these uncertainties, especially around overvalued U.S. equities, formulating a defensive approach, close out the lively conversation.

Friday 20th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs we recovered in the later editions of the Morning Call yesterday there was a strong market response to the Fed yesterday -from the statement and the press conference. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, there’s been a slight reversal in equity markets today, but nothing significant, and the US dollar continues to push higher. Since then, the Bank of Japan has done as expected, but still managed to weaken the Yen, perhaps because some are now wondering whether a rate rise won’t happen until March. The Bank of England kept on hold, but with a divided board. The Norges Bank and Riksbank did as expected. Meanwhile a s surprise in yesterday’s New Zealand GDP. Good news or bad?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and they have halved the number of cuts they expect next year. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, there was only one dissenter, wanting to keep rates on hold. That seems highly likely next time, as the Fed dot plot sees just two cuts next year, eventually aiming for an expected neutral rate close to 3 percent.Also, UK CPI didn’t surprise, and the Bank of England isn’t expected to either, keeping rates on hold, as inflationary pressures, though falling, remain high. The Bank of Japan also meets today. Another case of hold, but an expectation of a small rise early next year. And New Zealand’s economy is expected to show a second quarterly decline this morning.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Skye Masters, NAB's market strategist known for her keen insights into financial trends, dives into the surprising rise in UK wages and its impact on bond markets. She discusses how this has created a historic yield spread between UK and German bonds, reflecting significant monetary policy differences. Masters also analyzes the mixed signals from U.S. retail sales and the implications for consumer sentiment in Australia. Finally, she speculates on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and their effects on U.S. Treasury yields.