NAB Morning Call

The podcast dives into the Federal Reserve’s unexpected hawkish stance and the lingering fears around inflation due to tariffs. It highlights the troubling figures behind the US GDP growth, revealing the misleading indicators fueling optimism. A proposed 50% tariff on copper imports is discussed, raising concerns about market reactions and corporate pricing strategies. Additionally, insights into potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia are explored, alongside key economic indicators that could shape future market dynamics.

Wednesday 30th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil is the big mover overnight as President Trump confirms Russia has just 10 days to end the war before he imposes secondary tariffs. US equities have fallen. Meanwhile, it seems likely that China will have longer to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence is rising, although, as NAB’s Sally Auld points out, the Conference Board report also highlighted growing concerns about the labour market. And the Treasury has said their Q3 borrowing requirement is an eye watering $1 trillion. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 29th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe euphoria over a US—EU trade deal didn’t last long. It has helped catapult the US dollar higher, but at the expense of a big fall in the Euro, with European equities also well down. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the about turn, with the realisation that 15% tariffs will slow the European economy. As a result, copper and iron ore prices are well down. Oil, though, is much higher with the prospect of secondary tariffs on Russian oil looming, after President Trump gave Putin 10-to 12 days to sort out a peace deal for Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 28th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump announced a trade deal with the EU on Sunday, that sees a 15% tariff on most goods, cars included. Aluminium and steel remain at 50%. In exchange, according to Bloomberg, Europe will not levy any tariffs and will invest an extra $600bn in the US and spend $750bn on US energy. The deadline for a China deal also seems to have been pushed back 90 days. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks through the likely market reaction today, with equities already elevated on Friday from earnings results and some significant earnings results in the week ahead. Also on Friday the US President indicated that it would be too problematic to fire Jerome Powell, but will he still hold that opinion when the Fed holds rates again this week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Rod Sims, chair of the think tank The Super Power Institute, joins Phil to talk about Australia’s green iron opportunity. He says we have all the ingredients – the raw materials and the environment – to produce green iron, rather than shipping iron ore and coking coal overseas for carbon-intensive processing. But he admits in the short-term Australian produced green iron will be a more expensive proposition for markets like China and, in the absence of global carbon pricing, the government will need to step in with subsidies. The long-term opportunity, though, will make it all worthwhile. The Institute's own figures suggest green iron could generate $386 billion annually in exports by 2060, compared to around $120 billion now for iron ore. That requires a strategy and deep pockets from the government. Phil asks, are they on board with this? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 25th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump is stepping up the pressure on Jerome Powell as he ‘drops by’ the Fed, before heading off to the UK for the weekend. Markets have been a little more concerned about PMIs and central banks, though. The ECB kept rates on hold but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill point out, Christine Lagarde was hawkish in the press conference. Phil asks if he could have seen the last rate cut in this cycle. Meanwhile Michelle Bullock reiterated the cautious approach of the RBA at a lunch in Sydney yesterday. As far as PMIs are concerned, the US did better than Europe, with the UK the clear loser. Today UK retail sales will be of interest, along with durable goods orders in the US. Plus, of course, earnings and tariff news.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 24th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJapan has a deal, even if the details right now seem a little sketchy. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through an arrangement that sees Japan’s exports taxed at 15%, a welcome reduction for the country’s automakers. There are murmurs that the EU will reach a similar deal. Ironically the speed at which the deal was reached in Japan could see pressure mounting on PM Shigeru Ishiba to step down sooner rather than later. Also today why Alphabet shares are well down in after hours trade whilst Tesla has risen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 23rd July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTech earnings will be a focus of the week, with Tesla, IBM and Alphabet a day away now. But markets have responded favourably to earnings results so far, including a strong result from Coca Cola. But, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out in today’s podcast, it was a different story for GM, who took a hit on their income to absorb the cost of tariffs on imported cars and parts. Meanwhile a new trade deal with the Philippines provided further evidence that any country wil be lucky to get away with the original Liberation Day 10 percent baseline. Tapas also picks the bones on the latest RBA minutes, which highlighted how the central bank is treading cautiously because it is uncertain of the terminal rate. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Taylor Nugent, NAB's market economist and strategist, dives into the intriguing dynamics of the current market. He discusses recent highs in US equities, tempered by looming trade negotiations and tariffs. The potential impact of Japan's election on market stability and the implications of reduced shipping volumes are also explored. Nugent sheds light on New Zealand's CPI and how economic indicators influence monetary policy, blending vital insights with a dash of market humor.

Monday 21st July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt looks like Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has lost his majority, according to exit polls on Sunday. NAB’s Skye Masters says it was already priced into markets, with 30-year bond yields reaching record highs last week, but it comes at a bad time as Japan tries to negotiate a trade deal with the US, with the 1st August deadline looming. A deal might be reached with the EU this week or next, but President Trump has indicated he is inclined to a base tariff of 15 – 20%, even with a deal. A low level of data means the focus this week will be on tariff news, and corporate earnings, including Tesla and Alphabet in the middle of the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.