NAB Morning Call

Friday 28th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US share market fell only slight today after yesterday’s announcement that cars and car parts will have a 25% import tariff imposed on them, irrespective of where they come from. Interestingly, US manufacturers seem to have been hit hardest on the share market. Generally, though, markets took the news in their stride.  There are several Fed speakers talking today. NNAB’s Taylor Nugent says they’ll remain focussed on inflation expectations, but longer-run market measures haven’t followed survey measures higher for now.  UK Gilt yields rose as investors got to grips with yesterday’s budget, and whether the numbers stack up.  Is a tax rise the likely next step? Today the US PCE read for February, Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, along with consumer spending and saving data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 27th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets are clearly not excited about President Trump’s trade agenda. Equities took a hit in this session on news that an announcement on auto tariffs could happen within hours. There have also been rumours about copper could also be targeted, pushing copper prices to fresh highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a shift in sentiment emerging from the Fed, with Austin Goolsbee warning of the danger of consumer inflation expectations being mirrored in bond yields, with the potential for interest rates to rise again.  Locally, Australia’s February CPI print came in just as NAB had predicted, which could pave the way for a cut at the next RBA meeting. Labour market data today will provide more detail on the February print. And the UK economy is slowing more, creating no end of challenges for the Chancellor Rachel Reeve. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this conversation, Gavin Friend, an economist at NAB, shares valuable insights into current economic trends. He discusses the recent drop in U.S. consumer confidence, marking a 12-year low, and its chilling effect on markets. The podcast highlights contrasting optimism in Europe, particularly Germany's rising business expectations. Additionally, Gavin breaks down the contentious tariff strategies being debated in the U.S., and explores the implications of potential ceasefires in the Ukraine-Russia conflict on global trade.

Tuesday 25th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US dollar climbed a little today as US equities rallied, led by the Magnificent Seven. It’s like the good old days of American exceptionalism, but will it last or is it a brief stint of buying the dip? That’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Sally Auld. Some of the ‘hope’ might be driven by confusion over tariffs. At a cabinet meeting today President Trump talked about auto and pharma tariffs being imposed soon, without mentioning the broader tariffs expected on April 2nd. Oil prices pushed higher as he announced tariffs on any country buying oil from Venezuela. Also, why has the Yen fallen so far today? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 24th March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe clock is ticking close to April 2nd when the Trump administration unleashes its comprehensive tariff program. As Liberation Day nears, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether claims of the end to American exceptionalism were premature, with the US dollar manages to climb a little and equities seeing a few positive sessions. Today’s PMIs will be telling – do European purchasing managers have a more positive outlook than their American counterparts? As expected, Mark Carney announced a Canadian election over the weekend and used his speech to deliver a few harsh words against the US President, also as expected. And UK Gilt yields rose on Friday as rising government debt added to the country’s economic woes. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st March 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.APRA plans to phase out bank hybrids (AT1s) by January 2027. So, what exactly are AT1s and why is the regulator so concerned? In short, they are CoCos, contingent convertibles that transfer to equities when a bank capital’s capital falls below a tipping point. But do mum and dad investors understand the complexity of the offering and do the instruments adequately provide for their intended purpose? That’s APRA’s big concern, pointing to the Credit Suisse example where AT1 investors lost a lot of money.Chris Joye from Coolabah Capital has been critical of the APRA decision. While initially he thought AT1s were too complex an instrument and there was an elegant simplicity in choosing between stocks and bonds, his position has changed. He now worries that some of the mum and dad investors could be driven to even riskier assets.Chris is not one to hold back his opinions, which you’ll hear this week, but he also does a great job of explaining how this asset class works. Something you won’t be able to buy after next year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 21st March 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOne of the takeouts from yesterday's FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell's view that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be transitory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets are still expecting two or more cuts this year as a result. Today he looks at the market reaction to the Fed meeting, what happened at the Bank of England, and why Australian employer numbers yesterday were such a big miss. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Gavin Friend, NAB’s market economist, breaks down the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold rates steady amid shifting growth and inflation forecasts. He discusses how the Fed is in a 'wait-and-see' mode, particularly influenced by political factors and trade policies. The impacts of tariffs on inflation are considered transitory, according to Powell's remarks. Additionally, Gavin touches on the cautious approaches of the Bank of Japan and Bank of England. Insights into Australia’s job market also highlight expectations for a slight dip in unemployment.

Geopolitical tensions are causing market turmoil, with tech stocks in the U.S. declining while Europe rallies. The latest ceasefire developments have left investors jittery, especially with the Israel-Hamas situation worsening. Notably, there's a marked shift from U.S. equities to European shares. Germany's ramped-up defense budget is impacting bonds, while Canada's rising CPI raises flags for its central bank. Meanwhile, U.S. economic indicators reveal surprising industrial growth, prompting discussions on inflation's global ripple effects.

Taylor Nugent, an economist at NAB, shares valuable insights on US retail sales and the economic landscape. He discusses February's retail sales, revealing that beneath the surface, consumer spending fears may be overstated. The conversation also covers the volatile Empire State Manufacturing Index and the cautious optimism stemming from housing market indicators. Nugent touches on Australia's stable growth and China's strategies to boost consumer spending, while also hinting at the geopolitical implications of potential talks between Trump and Putin regarding Ukraine.