NAB Morning Call

Yan Wang, Chief Emerging Markets & China Strategist at Alpine Macro, breaks down the complex dynamics of US-China trade relations. She believes that the worst of the tariff dispute may be over, with China needing to achieve its 5% growth target. Yan explains how Trump might accommodate some of China's economic demands, suggesting a path forward with less volatility. She also discusses the yuan's fluctuations, the evolving trade strategies, and Australia's crucial role in this intricate economic landscape.

Friday 30th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US Appeals Cout has determined that Trump’s tariffs can stay, for now, but it remains a battle the President will have to fight. Kit seems markets had assumed he’d find a way to impose his tariffs anyway otherwise we would have seen more significant market moves. Th emain concern within the US seems to be how much of the new tax cuts assumed a high level of tariff revenue to compensate for the deficit. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the response, along with softer US data overnight, and to look ahead to a deluge of data out today and tonight, including retail sales for Australian and Japan, housing credit and building approvals at home, the US Core PCE and personal income and spending data, along with Canada’s GDP and China’s PMIs.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNVIDIA results show the chip manufacturer has beaten estimates on revenue, but has fallen behind on gross margin and EPS. Nonetheless, their share price was initially up in after-hours trade. It comes after a session that saw sharp falls in US and European equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the RBNZ cuts, another weak long-dated bond auction, the FOMC minutes (just out) and yesterday’s Australian CPI report. Plus, some interesting observations from the Australian treasury Secretary last night. And confirmation of Trump’s hit-big then negotiate approach, that could still see us all left with a residual 10% tariff, at best. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 28th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn the US investors left for the long weekend with the sudden news of a major tariff hike on European goods just a week away. They were back at their desks on Tuesday morning with the news that that wasn’t happening - not this week anyway. The result has been a jump in US shares, coinciding with the Conference board survey also jumping back from the postponement of Liberation Day tariffs. Also today, NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains why we’ve seen a 19bp drop in 30 year Japanese yields. He also previews today’s CPI figures for Australia and the priced-in 25bp cut from the RBNZ today. But what next? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEuropean equities rose on Monday on the back of the news that the imposition of higher tariffs on Europe have been pushed back a month. Does that also mean the result will be lower than the threatened 50 percent? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the Trump technique might start to lose some of its impact as politicians and markets get used to the shock and awe approach. And ECB chief Christine Lagarde didn’t hold back in a speech on Monday talking about how “multilateral cooperation is being replaced by zero-sum thinking and bilateral power plays”. Meanwhile, there’s been another small fall in the US dollar, and a rise in the CNY and the Aussie touching its highest level for the year to date. Today the US and UK return from holidays, with consumer confidence data and durable goods orders for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ray Attrill, NAB's market strategist with deep expertise in fiscal policies and trade negotiations, dives into the swirling chaos of global markets reacting to Donald Trump's tariff threats against the EU. He discusses how these tensions have triggered a 'Sell America' sentiment, with falling equities and rising bond yields. The conversation also touches on the looming risks for businesses, particularly tech giants like Apple, amidst fluctuating tariffs and currency shifts, while exploring broader economic implications tied to these trade dynamics.

In this engaging discussion, Andrew Irvine, the CEO of NAB, shares insights from the Microsoft CEO Conference. He addresses pressing questions about the global economy and NAB's recent earnings, tackling issues like the wealth gap and housing affordability. Irvine emphasizes how AI can enhance productivity in banking and housing, while also discussing the impact of the RBA's interest rate cuts. With a focus on the need for systemic changes, he remains optimistic about Australia's economic future despite current challenges.

Ken Crompton, an Economist at NAB, dives into the recent fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, discussing their startling rise and the effects of the Big Beautiful Tax Bill. He highlights how government spending uncertainties influence bond markets and the significance of weak auction results. The conversation extends to the economic landscapes of the U.S. and Europe, touching on jobless claims and PMIs, while also addressing Bitcoin's price surge and its potential as 'new gold'. Overall, a mix of cautious optimism and economic challenges defines the current climate.

Thursday 22nd May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was another weak bond auction in the US overnight, pushing yields ever higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there is a risk premium being applied to US bonds, from concerns over tariffs and, perhaps more significantly, rising government debt. The Big Beautiful Bill could add significantly to the government’s debt at a time when the balance of trade is deteriorating. Phil asks, should we be worried? Also today, a bigger than expected increase in UK CPI, but how much of it is down to one-off impacts? Today, the New Zealand Budget and US and European PMIs give a suggestion of which economies are taking the biggest hit from Trump’s tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this engaging discussion, Sally Auld, NAB's market economist and strategist, delves into the implications of the RBA’s recent interest rate cut. She shares insights on the divided market expectations surrounding the decision and the potential for further reductions. The conversation also covers the contrasting paths of the RBA and the Fed, with ongoing inflation in the U.S. Moreover, Sally analyzes the significant movements in both Australian and Japanese bond yields, unraveling the complexities of global economic discrepancies and domestic inflation trends.