NAB Morning Call

Gavin Friend, a NAB Markets economist in London, dives into the latest economic trends affecting global markets. He discusses the surprising fall in oil prices amidst oversupply fears, especially relating to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gavin also breaks down Australia’s stable wage growth and the implications for the Reserve Bank, alongside easing inflation in the UK and its potential influence on the Bank of England's decisions. Delayed U.S. payroll numbers add to the market uncertainty as the Fed navigates challenging data.

Ray Attrill, a Senior NAB markets strategist, shares his insights on the current state of the market. He highlights the nerves surrounding Nvidia's upcoming earnings, contrasted with unusual stability in the Aussie dollar. The discussion dives into job data trends, including rising weekly jobless claims, and explores investor concerns about AI valuations as a major risk. Ray also touches on expectations for the Wage Price Index and its minimal impact on policy, as well as previews for UK CPI and its implications for potential rate cuts.

Rodrigo Catril, a Senior NAB economist and expert in FX and macro analysis, shares his insights on market dynamics ahead of major data releases. He discusses investor caution tied to upcoming non-farm payrolls and NVIDIA earnings. Rodrigo highlights the recent dip in the Yen following Japan's soft GDP and delves into Canada's CPI trends affecting the Bank of Canada's stance. He also comments on Europe's revised growth forecasts and the euro's muted response, illustrating a fascinating snapshot of current global economic sentiment.

Taylor Nugent, a Markets researcher at NAB, dives into the recent relaxing of beef tariffs by the Trump administration. While it aims to ease cost-of-living pressures in the US, Taylor warns it may threaten Australia's beef export advantage. They also discuss the long-awaited return of US payroll data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's decisions. Additionally, the duo analyzes uncertainties in the UK budget and slowing momentum in China's economy, signaling key global market trends to watch.

Lincoln Valentine, a senior analyst for international equities at JBWere, dives into the volatile world of AI investment and big-tech dynamics. He discusses the current land-grab among tech giants, fueled by rising debts amid uncertain future demand. Lincoln contrasts the valuations of companies like Microsoft and Meta, questioning the sustainability of their growth. The talk highlights the risks of over-investment and the long-term viability of AI amidst changing market conditions.

Ken Crompton, a NAB Markets Research economist, analyzes Australia’s labor and inflation landscape while discussing the RBA's expected pause on easing. He shares insights on the uncertain US economic data and how this impacts Fed policies. The conversation shifts to global perspectives, with a look at stagnant UK growth and New Zealand's declining migration. Ken also prepares listeners for China’s upcoming data dump, emphasizing anticipated weaknesses in retail and housing sectors.

Sally Auld, NAB's markets economist, analyzes the recent surge in Australian investment home loans, indicating that the RBA's policies may not be as restrictive as they anticipated. She discusses how this surge could limit the case for immediate rate cuts. The conversation shifts to the US, where a potential vote to end the government shutdown looms, but potential disruptions in data reporting raise concerns. Auld also touches on ECB rates and global economic indicators, painting a complex picture for markets ahead.

Taylor Nugent, NAB's Markets researcher and economist, dives into the latest trends in Australian consumer and business sentiment. Despite a slight dip in confidence, he highlights resilient business conditions and a surprising rebound in consumer confidence. They discuss the implications of the potential end to the US government shutdown and the implications of rising unemployment in the UK, hinting at possible interest rate adjustments. Taylor's insights shed light on how these factors interplay in the broader economic landscape.

Ray Attrill, Senior FX and markets strategist at NAB Markets Research, dives into the recent optimism surrounding the potential end of the US government shutdown, which has buoyed equity markets. He discusses the RBA's Andrew Bauser's hawkish remarks that raise questions about the central bank's easing cycle. Additionally, Attrill shares insights on Australian consumer sentiment declining and the implications for future rates, alongside updates on inflation expectations in New Zealand and key upcoming survey data that could shift central bank policies.

Rodrigo Catril, NAB Markets researcher, dives into the signs of a global economic slowdown, highlighting the impact of recent data from Michigan and China's falling exports. He discusses the implications of the US government shutdown on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Rodrigo also examines Canada’s employment landscape, contrasting part-time gains with full-time losses. With insights on tariffs and Australia’s upcoming labour data, he provides a comprehensive analysis of shifting economic dynamics.