NAB Morning Call Markets pulled between earnings and tariffs
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Jul 21, 2025 Taylor Nugent, NAB's market economist and strategist, dives into the intriguing dynamics of the current market. He discusses recent highs in US equities, tempered by looming trade negotiations and tariffs. The potential impact of Japan's election on market stability and the implications of reduced shipping volumes are also explored. Nugent sheds light on New Zealand's CPI and how economic indicators influence monetary policy, blending vital insights with a dash of market humor.
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Rising Tariff Expectations
- Markets show rising expectations of tariffs increasing beyond the baseline 10% for many countries after August 1st.
- European optimism for lower tariffs is fading as officials prepare for possible retaliatory measures.
Falling US Import Volumes
- US import volumes into America are falling significantly, down 7.9% in June after a 6.6% drop in May.
- This decline suggests reduced demand and could hide complexities in GDP figures.
NZ Inflation Supports Rate Cut
- New Zealand's Q2 CPI inflation came in softer than expected at 2.8% year-on-year.
- This supports market expectations for an interest rate cut in August to stimulate growth.