NAB Morning Call

David Gall, former NAB executive and CEO of the National Reconstruction Fund, dives into Australia's economic diversification strategies. He discusses the critical need to boost manufacturing capabilities post-COVID and the role of the NRF in attracting private investment. Through examples like Harrison AI, he illustrates how patient capital can stimulate innovation while balancing risk. Gall emphasizes the importance of establishing well-paying jobs and regional investments as measurable impacts, all while remaining committed to Australia’s economic resilience.

Friday 7th November 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNormally all eyes would be on the release of the non-farm payrolls data today, but the shutdown has put paid to that. The Fed’s Goolsbee says the lack of data makes it hard to advocate rate cuts; ‘when its foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down’. The job is made harder when available data conflicts with each other. Yesterday we were talking about the positive ADP jobs numbers, today NAB’s Taylor Nugent highlights the Challenger jobs survey that reported 153kjob layoffs in October, alongside very low hiring rates. Market sentiment has shifted, with US shares down, the dollar lower, and bond yields falling, with an increased expectation for a December rate cut. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rodrigo Cutril, a markets analyst, shares his expert insights on economic indicators and global market trends. He discusses Europe's gradual recovery indicated by revised PMIs and the unexpected strength in U.S. services data. The conversation turns to Donald Trump's political challenges and the implications for markets, as equities rise and bond yields react to Treasury comments. Additionally, the duo evaluates the reliability of ADP payrolls, the performance of New Zealand’s labor market, and potential Bank of England rate cuts.

In this fascinating discussion, Ray Attrill, Senior Markets Strategist at NAB, shares insights on the evolving landscape of global central banks. He highlights the RBA's uncertainty about policy restrictiveness and the signals from the Bank of Canada regarding rate cuts. The conversation also explores the tech-driven equities sell-off, with concerns raised by major bank CEOs. Attrill emphasizes the mixed PMI data and its implications, along with views on the UK's fiscal strategies and the RBNZ's outlook for New Zealand's labor market. A must-listen for anyone interested in financial trends!

Join Sally Auld, NAB Markets economist, as she dissects the booming Australian housing market with rising prices and increased dwelling approvals. She explains how RBA policy doesn't target house prices directly but acknowledges that wealth effects influence consumer behavior. The conversation also dives into the latest US manufacturing numbers, highlighting a two-speed economy, tariff impacts on smaller firms, and insights into China’s export struggles. Auld offers a glimpse into NAB's forecasts and the RBA’s cautious approach ahead.

Taylor Nugent, NAB Markets researcher and expert in macro data analysis, dives into the latest trends in housing, inflation, and tech earnings. He highlights Amazon's impressive AWS growth, which is shaping market performance. They discuss regional factors like Australia’s housing credit gains and household spending indicators influencing RBA policy. Taylor also covers OPEC+'s production adjustments, the impact of Euro area inflation on ECB decisions, and the nuances of China’s PMIs amid a struggling property sector.

Doug Steele, a Senior economist specializing in New Zealand's macroeconomic trends, joins Gareth Spence, Head of Australian economics at NAB, to discuss the contrasting economic paths of their countries. Doug reveals New Zealand's ongoing recession, characterized by weak GDP growth and rising unemployment, while Gareth highlights Australia's population-driven economic resilience. They delve into labor market shifts, inflation risks, and the impact of monetary policies, alongside a nuanced discussion on productivity and central bank strategies.

Gavin Friend, a NAB Markets analyst based in London, shares insights on the recent Trump-Xi trade deal that surprisingly left markets lukewarm. He discusses how this deal impacts central banks' cautious stances, particularly the ECB and the Bank of Japan. Gavin dives into the mixed results from big tech earnings, drawing parallels between Nvidia's role in the market and historical gold rush dynamics. The conversation also highlights the implications of weak Chinese PMIs on global trade and growth.

Sally Auld, an expert NAB economist, dives into the recent Fed rate cut decision, highlighting internal divisions within the FOMC. She explains how a surprising spike in Australia's CPI could delay expected rate cuts from the RBA until May. The discussion also touches on the implications of halting quantitative tightening and previews upcoming decisions from the Bank of Japan and ECB. With insights into the broader economic landscape, Auld brings clarity to complex central bank dynamics.

Ken Crompton, NAB Markets economist, provides deep insights into the current economic landscape. He discusses the surprising slide in US consumer confidence amid a federal shutdown and its impact on lower-income households. The conversation shifts to the upcoming tech earnings and the question of whether AI will truly boost productivity. Ken also highlights the significance of Australia’s CPI data for the RBA's decisions on interest rates, alongside updates on volatile regional Fed surveys and the geopolitical tensions affecting markets.