NAB Morning Call

In this discussion, economist Taylor Nugent from NAB analyzes the transformative UK-EU deal that eases food export checks while safeguarding fishing waters. He dives into market reactions to international relations, particularly the muted response from the Trump-Putin talks amid rising inflation concerns. The podcast also unpacks the impact of recent U.S. legislation on economic sentiment, alongside predictions about the RBA's interest rate cuts amidst a backdrop of mixed economic signals from China.

Monday 19th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s a lot of talk going on right now and President Trump is at the centre of most of it. Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about a plethora of negotiations that could influence markets this week. First, the Trump call to Putin, followed by a call to Zelensky. Can he break the deadlock? There are also negotiations going on with the EU. Documents have reportedly changed hands, and JD Vance met with Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Sunday. It might  be in the nick of time, because Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that tariff levels will go back to April 2nd levels to those countries that haven’t negotiated with the US in good faith. And in the US, where Republicans have voted against the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, the spending committee is meeting now to plan a way through the standoff. On Friday markets reacted to the cut to Moody’s US credit ratings, although Ray says it’s really of little consequence. And locally, the focus is on the RBA tomorrow, and just how big a cut will they make? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Michael Feller, Chief Strategist at Geopolitical Strategy, shares insights on navigating today's complex investment landscape. He discusses how recent geopolitical tensions, including conflicts from Israel to Ukraine, impact trade and economic stability. Feller examines the implications of evolving tariff policies and a multipolar world, emphasizing Australia's robust economic position amidst global uncertainty. He humorously suggests innovative investment strategies while analyzing the possible future influence of Donald Trump and his family's role in politics.

Ray Attrill, NAB's expert on market dynamics, dives into the drops in bond yields amid weaker retail sales and anticipations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. He discusses the curious independence of equities, bonds, and the dollar, while oil prices fluctuate due to potential U.S.-Iran negotiations. Attrill also examines Australia’s robust labor market and its implications for monetary policy, addressing the possibility of a more cautious approach by the Reserve Bank of Australia amid optimistic expectations.

Equity markets are showing restraint amid a lack of major announcements, with tech stocks being the standout. Recent tariff cuts on China are already boosting container ship bookings. The Beautiful Bill is gaining attention, viewed as a mixed bag that may increase debt without fostering growth. Internationally, potential negotiations between Putin and Zelensky could sway European market sentiment, while contrasting wage dynamics in Australia and the US prompt discussion on monetary policies.

Skye Masters, NAB's market expert and finance aficionado, shares insights on a market invigorated by international deals and tech stock surges. She discusses a $142 billion defense deal with Saudi Arabia and the uplift from potential NVIDIA stock sales in the UAE. With positive economic indicators like a robust consumer confidence report and the S&P seeing its best performance of the year, optimism is in the air. Skye and host Phil dissect how these factors are reshaping investor sentiment and the landscape for US equities.

Tuesday 13th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were taken aback by the size and immediacy of tariff cuts announced Monday between China and the US. Although we did highlight it as a possibility in yesterday’s podcast. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it wasn’t just the size of the tariff cuts, down to 30% on China and 10% on the US, but also the goodwill displayed after the weekend talks. Equities have risen sharply, the dollar is stronger, and markets are pricing in more rate cuts.  The news does make upcoming data a little less relevant. We get the US inflation print today - if its higher the US administration can say the lower tariffs should fix that. Just as the UK government can respond to higher unemployment -  if it happens today -by saying they have just proposed sweeping changes to immigration rules. That’s politics. And there’s a lot of it lately.GOT A QUESTION FOR NAB’S CEO? Phil will be talking to Andrew Irvine on the Weekend Edition, a week on Friday. Ask what you like about finance and the economy, globally or locally. Orif you  want your voice heard, ask your question out loud and send in a sound file to be played on the podcast. Whichever way you want to do it, email morningcall@nab.com.au - don’t forget to include your name and where you are from. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 12th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS Treasury Secretary Bessent said there had been ‘substantial progress’ in the negotiations with China over the weekend. Maybe the US is feeling the pressure, with stores warning of supply shortages. China, meanwhile, according to trade data on Friday, is exporting more, they’ve just switched the destination away from the US. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril if China exports have a deflationary impact elsewhere (not the US), will we see more of a divergence in the approach taken by central banks? And could this be a big week for deals? With China? With other nations? And potentially positive talks over Ukraine with Putin and Zelensky supposedly set to meet face to face.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th May 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The commercial real estate (CRE) market has struggled post-COVID, with working from home and online shopping both taking a chunk out of demand for properties. But the tide is starting to turn, with investment picking up and a stronger focus on building greener premises or adapting older buildings to meet new green regulations. It’s a Herculean task, with CRE contributing 18 percent of direct carbon emissions in Australia.Nonetheless, we are winning the battle, according to Natasha Mulcahy, the Pacific region director, ESG at the global commercial real estate consulting and investment firm CBRE. And NAB is doing its part. Paul Lennard is NAB’s Executive, Business Lending Products – his team includes a sustainable finance unit which has built a growing portfolio of around $2bn in green finance over three years, including the CRE sector. Natasha and Paul join Phil this week to talk about the growth in sustainable CRE, who is driving that change and the regulations that make it impossible to ignore. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 9th May 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have seen the positive side of the US-UK trade deal. It’s a sign that deals can be done to reduce tariffs, but NAB’s Ken Crompton wonders whether sentiment is running ahead of itself. Although there are some carves out for sectors, including steel, the UK base tariff rate remains at 10 percent. This for a country that already buys more from the US than it sells to them. For that the UK has reduced some of its tariffs and is expected to remove invisible barriers around agriculture. If anything, it could be seen as a sign that tariffs won’t move down far, even when a deal is done. Still, the US President gave another tip to buy shares because they are going to take off “like a rocket ship”. Beyond the optimism of the share market central banks are still grappling with the uncertain environment. The Bank of England vote was split three ways. The focus is on China this weekend, with trade data, CPI and PPI and the start of those trade talks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.