NAB Morning Call

Friday 5th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The US recently passed The Genius Act, which entrenches the role of Stablecoin in the US economy. Scott Bessent thinks the requirement for Stablecoin operators to back their issuance 1:1 with US currency safe assets, like government securities, will increase demand for US Treasuries and lower borrowing costs. Is it a genius plan or just wishful thinking? Phil puts that question to Simon French, managing director of Panmure Liberum, the UK’s largest independent investment bank. In a recent column in The Times Simon argued that the UK and other governments and central banks need to embrace the technology or risk even more finance concentrated on US currency and assets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt would be a big surprise if we saw strong growth in the US non-farm payrolls numbers out tonight (Australia time). As NAB’s Ken Crompton describes, the Challenger Jobs Survey showed sharp rise sin layoffs, the weekly jobless claims continue to rise, and the number of new jobs halved in the latest ADP report. He tells Phul that the report is unlikely to have any impact on the chance of a cut in the September Fed meeting, but it could influence the number of cuts that follow beyond that this year. Whilst the jobs market appears soft, the ISM Services report showed strength, and equity markets are behaving as though everything is just fine. The S&P hit another new high at the US close, for example. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this discussion, Ray Attrill, NAB’s market economist and strategist, dives into the latest U.S. job openings data, revealing a drop to 7.2 million. He explains how this decline signals a weakening job market, influencing tech stock surges and lower bond yields. Ray also touches on the surprising growth of Australia’s GDP, driven by household consumption, alongside the contrasting dynamics in job sectors and the implications for interest rate forecasts. Stay tuned for insights on economic trends and future market expectations!

Wednesday 3rd September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Skye Masters says rising government debt is a global issue, but it’s being felt particularly in the UK, where falling confidence in the government is souring sentiment further. As a consequence, 30 year yields rose to the highest level since 1998. As Phil points out, that’s the year Google was founded, and Apple came out with the iMac. US yields are also higher, in part because of continued concern about rising debt if President Trump has to relinquish his tariffs and trade deals. But that won’t happen, will it? He’ll find a way through. Meanwhile, the first bit of key jobs news tonight in the US, with the release of the JOLTs, job openings, data.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rodrigo Catril from NAB Markets Research shares insights on the latest Aussie GDP figures and their implications. He highlights how economic uncertainties in the U.S. and global power dynamics are pushing gold prices to new heights. The conversation touches on the role of the dollar's weakness in elevating gold as a safe-haven asset. Catril also discusses the geopolitical landscape with leaders like Putin, Xi, and Modi, and how their relationships affect market stability and investor confidence in gold.

Monday 1st September 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis could shape up to be quite a busy week, with an expected mix of political and data-driven headlines. But it gets off to a slow start with equity and bond markets closed in the US on Monday for Labour Day. The week ramps up towards the latest non-farm payrolls on Friday, taking in Australia’s Q2 GDP along the way. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it would take a lot for payrolls to divert the Fed away from a September cut. And expect more this week on the legality or otherwise of President Trump’s tariffs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Ten years ago Robin Khuda had a vision that data centres needed to be much bigger. Hyper-scaling, as they call it. Back then there was about 400 megawatts of capacity in Australian data centres, and three or four gigawatts across Asia-Pacific & Japan. Today, AirTrunk has two gigawatts portfolio of hyperscale data centres, with big expansion plans across the region. They are attracting big money to fund this expansion, which is responding to the needs of the major tech players and their AI trajectory. Phil talks to Carly Wishart, AirTrunk’s managing director, corporate and international, and Prashant Murthy, managing director capital and strategy. He asks how they move swiftly, secure the necessary funding, stand out from the competition and not run the risk of overbuilding. And what innovative approaches are emerging to power AI responsibly and sustainably? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th August 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Fed is expected to cut even though the latest GDP numbers show an economy growing – and maybe the PCE numbers today will show inflation is rising. So, is a cut the right thing to do? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton who says, even though September seems bolted on, markets are stepping back on the speed of cuts beyond that. Although that could be determined by how many supporters President Trump parachutes onto the Fed board. A busy day for data lies ahead, including a major dump from Japan and inflation numbers from Europe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday’s big news is the 50% tariff slapped on India. Sally Auld says it presents a challenge for India. The tariff is high enough for US importers to look elsewhere for substitute goods. It’ll be welcome news in Europe, though, because the tariff is to stop India buying Russian oil. Europe is, itself, considering secondary tariffs. It’s also fast-tracking an end to many tariffs on US imports, in the hope of bringing down Trump’s tariff on European cars. That’s all interesting stuff but markets are most interested in NVIDIA earnings, which disappointed only in that they didn’t exceed expectations. Still, that seem enough to drag shares down across the chip sector. Phil also asks Sally why Australian inflation came in so much higher than expected yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump posted an open letter to the Fed’s Lisa Cook saying she was removed from her position, effectively immediately. Legal proceedings will almost certainly follow, particularly ss she has not yet been charged with any crime, but, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses on today’s podcast, markets have taken it in their stride, apart from a mild steepening in the yield curve.Aside from that it’s been a quiet session. US consumer confidence data showed continued rising concerns over jobs, but not enough to impact markets, with equities back on the rise today. It’s another quiet session ahead, with Australian CPI the main local interest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.