Friday 13th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday, NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the market response to the unexpected fall in Australian unemployment numbers yesterday, with the drop most significant in Victoria. The Swiss National Bank provided another surprise, with a 50bp rate cut, with a 25bp cut from the ECB, accompanied by lacklustre growth forecasts for the next few years. Today, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter is speaking at a lunch in Adelaide, with a Q&A session where the media will undoubtedly ask about the fall in unemployment and how that impacts their rate cut trajectory. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this engaging discussion, Gavin Friend, NAB's market economist, unpacks the intricacies of global monetary policy. He analyzes the Fed's imminent decision on interest rate cuts and delves into the Bank of Canada's recent moves, highlighting their effects on economic indicators. Friend also examines the challenges central banks face amid contradictory policies and shares insights on upcoming Australian employment data. Tune in for a deep dive into the complex dynamics shaping our financial landscape!

Wednesday 11th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have responded to what some have seen as a dovish pivot by the RBA, in the wording of their statement yesterday and the post-meeting press conference. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says there are still inflation concerns, hence NAB is sticking with its expectation that a cut probably won’t happen till May. Still, the Aussie and NZ dollars both took a hit yesterday and are still well down this morning. The US dollar, meanwhile, has been boosted by a sharp rise in small business sentiment in the latest NFIB survey. It’s clearly a Trump bounce. Will his delivery match expectations? And the second dove of Christmas? Well, presumably the Bank of Canada. You can’t get more dovish than a 50bp rate cut, which is what’s expected tonight. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 10th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBeijing has announced more in the way of fiscal and monetary stimulus to get the Chinese economy back on its feet. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s still light on the detail, but it caught markets a little off-guard, with nothing expected till later in the week. The response was most pronounced in Chinese equities, but oil is also higher and so is the Australia and NZ dollars.  Today the RBA is likely to announce that rates won’t budge, but the detail will come from the press conference that follows. The NAB Business Survey is also out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 9th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe can expect three central banks to cut rates this week, and one to hold steady. No surprises that the RBA is the one firmly expect to stand pat, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Canada saw pricing increase for a 50bpcut by the Bank of Canada this week. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls also increased slightly expectations for a 25bp cut by the Fed next week. US CPI numbers are out middle of the week, but Fed speakers won’t be able to comment with the pre-meeting lockdown in place. The Aussie dollar was the worst performer of the major currencies last week, in part because of Aussie GDP numbers, but also because of global geopolitical uncertainty. There’s even more of that now with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the unknown implications from of the power vacuum it creates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 6th December 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Have Australians who ignored the rise of the Magnificent Seven lost out? NAB’s Gemma Dale says they will have still done pretty well with Australian equities, which have performed better than many other parts of the world, like the UK and Europe, for example. But how will investors cope with the uncertainties of the next 12 months? How do you plan for Trump’s trade policies, subsequent changes to supply chains and the rising US dollar? How do you look for winners  before they hit the big time? Or do you, as many Aussie investors tend to, simply look for opportunities and buy the dip. Phil talks to Gemma about the year we’ve been through for Australian equity investors and what the next year will bring.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rodrigo Catril, NAB’s market economist and strategist, shares insights on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and its implications for the Fed's monetary policy. He discusses how upcoming CPI data could shift rate cut expectations. The political landscape in France is also unraveling, with tensions rising post-confidence votes and Macron's strategic hesitations. Additionally, OPEC+ maintains a cautious approach to oil production, reflecting the uncertain global demand. Catril’s analysis ties together these economic threads with implications for international markets.

Thursday 5th December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s growth numbers yesterday were a bit slower than most had expected, although in-line with NAB’s expectations. Nonetheless it was below consensus and NAB’s Gavin Friend says that was brought forward expectations for a rate cut, although that could easily slip back. The short-term impact has been a weaker Aussie dollar against a US dollar which itself falling after a downside surprise on the Services ISM read overnight. A rare bit of soft US economic data, says Gavin. As we pressed record today France was going to vote on the government’s no-confidence motion, whilst Jerome Powell was taking part in a panel discussion that markets have been holding out for. We cover off some of the early take-outs from both. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Skye Masters, a market economist and strategist at NAB, delves into the intricate dynamics of global markets amidst significant geopolitical events. She explores how the recent martial law in Korea and France's political instability have surprisingly left the markets largely unshaken. Masters also discusses the implications of US employment trends and expected monetary policy shifts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, she touches on Australia's latest GDP data, linking government policies to public sector growth and examining its broader economic impact.

Rodrigo Catril, an expert market economist and strategist at NAB, dives into the turbulent political landscape in France, particularly focusing on Marine Le Pen's potential to destabilize the government. He discusses the implications of this chaos on investor confidence and market dynamics. Meanwhile, strong economic indicators from the US raise questions about interest rate cuts. The conversation also highlights Australia's improving retail sales and the recent rise in China's manufacturing PMI, suggesting a complex interplay of global market forces.