NAB Morning Call

Friday 18th July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Who is going to ultimately benefit from Donald Trump’s policies – the tariffs and the bIg Beautiful Bill. Phil Dobbie talks to economist Phil Suttle, in Washington DC, about the future for the US economy and the impact on tariffs om the global economy. The uncertainty will almost certainly slow down US investment, the exception being the tech sector where the FOMO effect will keep companies developing. Phil reckons there will be a haves and have nots divide, in households and in the corporate space. But what about the rest of the world? How will China and Europe adapt? And can we expect a permanent shift in global trade patterns, or will we revert to norm once President Trump has moved on? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S&P hit a new high today, passing 65,300for the first time. Why? Well, the economic data out over night was largely good news. Retail sales were stronger than expected in June, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index perked up, initial jobless claims fell. As Phil suggests to NAB’s Gavin Friend, there was a lot to like. The threat of looming tariffs seems to be largely ignored, as though investors don’t think they will happen. It was a less rosy picture in Australia and the UK -in both cases unemployment rose more than expected. Gavin talks through whether these numbers will have any impact on central bank decisions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday17th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump made a TV career from firing people and there has been increasing speculation lately that he is ready to dump the Fed chair. That speculation was heightened on Wednesday when lawmakers claimed he had pointed to a letter asking Jerome Powell to leave. But he denied that when quizzed by the press, saying he’ll only go if he had to because of fraud. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent describes, markets swung back and forth on the unfolding story but finished with the stock market regaining ground at the close. Also on the podcast, rising inflation in the UK and Australian employment data today alongside some key US metrics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 16th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump suggested that the latest US inflation numbers are weak and that the Fed should cut by3 points - presumably 300bp. But, as NAB’s ken Crompton outlines, the data is more likely to delay the Fed. Why? Because markets responded positively to the data initially, on further examination it’s clear that inflation is picking up in areas most impacted by tariffs. A cut at the end of the month from the Fed now looks less likely. Ken also talks to Phil about China’s mixed activity data, the optimism of analysts in Europe’s ZEW survey, yesterday’s Aussie consumer confidence number and what we can glean from US corporate earnings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 15th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOnce again, US markets seem unphased by the log list of tariffs from the US president, perhaps because he has indicated he is willing to negotiate, and it’s just seen as a negotiating tactic. Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about whether we’ll see signs of the impact in US inflation data today. Yesterday’s data from China showed the resilience of their export markets, and where trade is switching to from the US. Also today, banks earnings results n the US and the UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, around this time tomorrow, trying to regain confidence in the UK as she promises to be ruthless on cutting red tape. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 14th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOver the weekend President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico starting from August 1st. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent suggests, it’s another delay in the implementation of tariffs and it has stopped the EU from enforcing retaliatory measures planned for this week whilst negotiations continue. More concerning for markets might be the Trump administration’s moves to oust Jerome Powell from his role at the Fed, building a legal case on the cost overrun of renovations!The focus this week will be on US CPI and Australian labour market data,plus earnings with banks reporting from tomorrow and Netflix later in the week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 11h July 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The ABS is abandoning its monthly retail trade numbers, in favour of a more in-depth analysis of consumption in the revamped monthly Household Spending report. There’s a fundamental difference between the two. The Retail Trade data was based on a time consuming survey of retailers, the Household Spending report uses real data from banks, supermarkets and car retailers.Robert Ewing is Program Manager, Business Statistical Production & Futures Branch at the ABS. Phil asks him what’s new in this report, is it accurate and what sort of enhancements can be expect down the track?  It all sounds like a big step forward, but any chance we can get it quicker? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ray Attrill, NAB's market economist and strategist, shares his expertise on recent market happenings. He discusses President Trump's unexpected 50% tariff on Brazilian imports and how markets surprisingly remained unfazed, even as US equities rose. Attrill delves into the implications for global trade and inflation, noting how exporters are adapting to tariff challenges. The conversation also touches on US job data, the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, and the Australian dollar's rise amidst shifting economic winds.

Thursday 10th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThis has to be one of the quietest sessions in quite a while. President Trump did send out more tariff letters, but avoiding alarming demands and aimed at relatively minor trading partners. There was a stronger than expected response to a 10-year Treasury auction which, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says did move yields lower, although those moves had started ahead of the auction. The Fed minutes this morning show how divided the US central bank is on how quickly to move rates - or whether to move at all this year -and the impact of tariffs on the economy. There’s also discussion about the RBNZ yesterday, China’s inflation data and what to look out for today. Spoiler alert: not much! .  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 9th July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has made more proclamations, including a 50 percent tariff on copper imports. A deal is supposedly progressing with the EU, which could see trade in aircraft and parts exempt and a reduction for some car manufacturers. If the deal falls through there’s a threat that Europe’s 20% base tariff will rise to 50%. Markets have responded cautiously, perhaps too cautiously suggests NAB’s Skye Masters, who says it’ll also be interesting to see how a 10-year Treasury auction is received tonight. Phil also asks her about why the RBA decision yesterday was such a surprise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.