NAB Morning Call

Ray Attrill, a Senior Markets Strategist at NAB, dives into the recent market shifts, spotlighting the Aussie dollar's surprising rise influenced by US-China optimism. He discusses the impact of the PBoC's stronger yuan fixing and how RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s cautious remarks recalibrated expectations for a November rate hike. The conversation also touches on key US economic indicators and the evolving landscape of global trade, providing listeners with valuable insights into current market dynamics.

Rodrigo Catril, a NAB Markets researcher and economist, joins Phil to discuss a whirlwind week in finance. They dive into the upbeat tone of Xi-Trump talks and the potential easing of tariffs. Rodrigo breaks down the slower-than-expected US CPI, raising the odds of a Fed rate cut. They also touch on the impacts of the US government shutdown and evaluate concerns over European growth. Other hot topics include expectations for Australian CPI and major upcoming tech earnings from giants like Apple and Amazon.

James Carouso, a senior foreign policy adviser with 25 years at the U.S. Department of State, shares insights on the newly announced $13 billion rare earths deal and the AUKUS defense agreement between the U.S. and Australia. He highlights its significance in reducing U.S. reliance on China and the potential for Australia to boost onshore processing. They discuss the implications of tariffs, investment opportunities, and how this partnership might reshape trade dynamics, especially concerning China and steel tariffs. Carouso also reflects on past negotiations with Trump.

In this discussion, Skye Masters, a NAB Markets commentator and economist, dives into the impact of Trump's sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. He explains how these sanctions have caused oil prices to spike due to India and China's paused purchases. The chat also highlights the potential economic fallout for Russia and global supply dynamics. Additionally, the upcoming release of CPI numbers is scrutinized amid concerns over data reliability, with implications for future Federal Reserve actions.

Thursday 23rd October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ray Attrill, a Senior NAB Markets strategist, dives into the intriguing dynamics of recent market movements. He analyzes the sharp drop in gold and silver, attributing it to speculative behaviors and ETF-driven buying. The uncertainty surrounding Trump's remarks about a potential meeting with Xi adds to market volatility. Ray also discusses the breakdown of typical asset correlations, questions the sustainability of sub-4% Treasury yields, and explores how shifts in Canadian and UK CPI might influence central bank rate decisions.

Tuesday 21st October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBefore you woke up this morning Anthony Albanese was at the White House announcing a  $8.5 billion trade deal with America, giving the US access to the rare earths and critical minerals that will reduce its reliance on China. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the deal which, in theory, will see the US investing in processing capabilities within Australia. Meanwhile Chinese data yesterday showed strong GDP growth, but less progress with domestic consumption. Ken says it’s another sign of the involution that policy makers are fighting against. Could we see more on that out of the Plenum sessions this week? And this should be the day that Japan gets its first female prime minister. But will it last long and what does it mean for the BoJ? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump said he was getting along with China, and he acknowledged his 100% tariff would not be sustainable. That suggests that a deal would be done at APEC, if not before. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says that provided some positive sentiment at the end of last week. Worries over regional US banks also eased on Friday.The likelihood that the US dollar will not fall quite as far as initially expected has caused the NAB FX team to revise their forecasts. Taylor talks Phil through the changes, which will see the Aussie dollar climb mores slowly, and not as far into the seventies (in US cents).This week Japan might finally vote in their Prime Minister and China starts their Fourth Plenum, working on the economic policy for the next five-year plan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Latest data from Cotality suggests that the value of Australian real estate could top $12 trillion by the end of the year. The growth isn’t uniform, of course and affordability is still a significant issue. And yet Sydney, the least affordable part of Australia, is continuing to grow faster than the average.Eliza Owen, Cotality’s Australian Head of Research, joins Phil to talk about everyone’s favourite subject. Where is the highest price growth and is affordability slowing the growth. Phil also asks, if capital growth is becoming less pronounced, will investors need to look for areas where they can attract a higher rental yield?Phil and Eliza talk through the latest trends, comparing Australia to other major economies, and make some predictions about what happens next. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th October 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAustralia’s unemployment rate was higher than expected yesterday. On the podcast today we drill down on the numbers and Phil asks Rodrigo Catril whether it changes NAB’s view on when the next rate cut will happen.Normally today we’d be reporting on US CPI, but its been delayed because of the shutdown. Hence, markets are in the dark and cautious, but the Philly Fed manufacturing data adds to concerns about rising prices and weaker employment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.