Monday 2nd December 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US is back at work after a long Thanksgiving weekend for many, back just in time for the week of non-farm payroll and other US jobs data, ahead of the Fed this month. Retail sales numbers will be highlight for Australian data today, with NAB’s Tapas Strickland suggesting Friday’s business credit provided further evidence that the RBA’s rates are currently not restrictive, making cuts even less likely in the short term. Also, on Friday hotter than expected Tokyo CPI data could encourage the Bank of Japan to move faster on a rate hike. Plus, the latest download on Trump policies, threats and claims. And today could be decision day for the French budget. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Harry Ishihara, a macro strategist for Macrobond and the Japan Exchange Group, sheds light on the dynamics of the Japanese carry trade amid a fluctuating yen. He emphasizes the cautious return of retail investors, the 'Mrs. Watanabes', despite recent challenges. Ishihara discusses Japan's economic recovery driven by strong foreign investments and changing consumer behaviors. He also addresses the evolving trade landscape under the new Trump administration and the implications for U.S.-Japan relations, especially in key industries like automotive and semiconductors.

Tapas Strickland, NAB's market economist, shares insights on the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious stance on interest rate cuts compared to global trends. He highlights the upcoming governance changes where the RBA will split into two boards focusing separately on monetary policy. The conversation shifts to the economic implications for Australia and Europe, addressing inflation statistics and credit rating revisions. Strickland also notes the good news for Americans as Thanksgiving dinner costs decline, despite long-term price increases.

Ken Crompton, a market economist at NAB, shares his expert insights on the current economic landscape. He discusses the weaker dollar and declining share prices ahead of Thanksgiving, highlighting how thin trading impacts markets. Ken analyzes the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent rate decisions and hints at possible future cuts. He contrasts this with the European Central Bank's cautious stance and explores inflation trends in Germany and Australia. Listeners gain valuable perspectives on shifting economic sentiments and monetary policies.

Wednesday 27th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNo big surprises in the FOMC minutes out this morning, with the Fed saying it continues to be data dependent, and that could mean a pause, or faster cuts. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are still split on whether a cut will happen in December, just as there’s an outside chance the RBNZ will cut by 75bp this week. The two big news stories of the morning though – a likely ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, and announcements of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from day one of the presidency. Will either actually come to pass? Or last long? The widening spread in bond yields between France and Germany demonstrates the heightening concerns over French politics, even though Germany is hardly the “poster child” says Sally. Meanwhile, the latest Consumer Confidence survey shows the US is in quite a good place right now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have reversed their position a little for the first time since the US election results. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reflects the response to Scott Benson as the likely new Treasury head, who is seen as a more moderate, safe pair of hands, who won’t impose blanket tariffs. That news has strengthened the Euro and helped the share price of US mid-caps who might have seen input prices rise if such a radical policy was imposed quickly. The day’s other positive news was the possibility of an Israel Hezbollah ceasefire. There’s nothing more concrete than positive words from the White House national security spokesperson, but it was enough to drive oil prices significantly lower. Rodrigo also tells us why tomorrows FOMC minutes will be particularly important, and why the latest NZ data won’t change the course of the RBNZ this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ray Attrill, an expert market economist and strategist at NAB, dives into the stark contrast between US exceptionalism and European economic woes. He discusses how higher-than-expected PMIs in the US highlight a robust market amid political unrest, while Europe struggles with sluggish performance. The conversation also explores the potential impact of Trump's tariff policies and shifting interest rate forecasts for various global economies. Attrill sheds light on the UK’s economic landscape and how these challenges may shape future central bank strategies.

Friday 22nd November 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The private credit market is growing in volume with no signs of abating. Brad Calleja, Executive Corporate Finance at NAB, says its difficult to put a precise figure on the size of the space because not all deals are visible, but it’s estimated globally at between $2 and $3 trillion. So, what is it and why is it growing so quickly? Brad explains that it is providing a vehicle for institutional funds, such as super funds, to achieve higher returns from higher risk, longer duration investments that sit outside the risk profiles of most banks. If that’s the case, what’s the role of a bank like NAB in private credit markets? Listen in to understand more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAre NVIDIA investors a bit like Oliver Twist? They want more. That’s the take of NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on the Morning Call. The data was all second tier and none of it changed market expectations around the Fed’s path of rate cuts. US jobless claims were down, but continued claims were up, suggesting employers are letting less people go, but at the same time are not recruiting more. Positive news on housing, which can be choppy, was offset by gloomy news in the Philly Fed manufacturing outlook. So, it was a mixed picture overnight. The upshot, we need more solid data to get a clearer picture. Meanwhile, in the uncertainty, Bitcoin careers closer to the $100k mark. And will the promise of Roast Turkey drive up shares next week- which often happens on Thanksgiving week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st November 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s no been much in the way of data to give markets any direction. Ahead of the NVIDIA results equities were trading lower, with the US dollar up slightly, and no big moves in oil. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland why there wasn’t more of aa reaction to events in Eastern Europe, with Ukraine firing US and UK supplied missiles into Russian territory, and the US, Italy, Spain and Greece temporarily closing their embassies in Kyiv, fearing an imminent attack. Meanwhile, UK inflation was a little higher than expected, reducing further the chance of a pre-Christmas cut from the Bank of England. There’s also been a claim that labour data in the UK has significantly overestimated unemployment.  Today, Europe’s consumer confidence numbers, US existing home sales and initial jobless claims, as well as the Philly Fed business outlook. And the RBA’s Michelle Bullock is talking at 7 tonight in Sydney at the Women in Payments Conference. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.