NAB Morning Call Trump’s oil sanctions hit home
Oct 23, 2025
In this discussion, Skye Masters, a NAB Markets commentator and economist, dives into the impact of Trump's sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. He explains how these sanctions have caused oil prices to spike due to India and China's paused purchases. The chat also highlights the potential economic fallout for Russia and global supply dynamics. Additionally, the upcoming release of CPI numbers is scrutinized amid concerns over data reliability, with implications for future Federal Reserve actions.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Sanctions Reprice Oil And Yields
- US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil drove oil up over 5% and pressured bond yields higher.
- Markets fear higher energy costs will feed into inflation and lift breakevens and yields.
Supply Appears Ample Despite Price Move
- Global physical oil supply looks ample with record tanker volumes at sea.
- Price moves reflect sanction risk and sentiment more than an immediate supply shortage.
Oil Revenue Is Russia's Budget Backbone
- Russian oil revenue funds roughly a third of the state budget.
- Cutting buyers could materially reduce Putin's foreign earnings and fiscal headroom.