NAB Morning Call

Weekend Edition: Is Australia America’s New best Friend?

Oct 24, 2025
James Carouso, a senior foreign policy adviser with 25 years at the U.S. Department of State, shares insights on the newly announced $13 billion rare earths deal and the AUKUS defense agreement between the U.S. and Australia. He highlights its significance in reducing U.S. reliance on China and the potential for Australia to boost onshore processing. They discuss the implications of tariffs, investment opportunities, and how this partnership might reshape trade dynamics, especially concerning China and steel tariffs. Carouso also reflects on past negotiations with Trump.
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INSIGHT

Strategic Rare Earths Partnership

  • The US-Australia rare earths deal aims to reduce US dependency on China while boosting Australian onshore processing.
  • James Carouso says this is a significant, targeted move using Ex-Im Bank finance to de-risk critical mineral supply chains.
ADVICE

Prioritise Supply-Chain Integration

  • Do focus on integrating supply chains for critical minerals rather than solely on tariff disputes.
  • Carouso suggests cooperation on de-risking projects may yield more tangible results than immediate tariff negotiations.
ANECDOTE

Longstanding Canberra–Washington Talks

  • Carouso recounts that US–Australia talks on critical minerals preceded the recent deal and were discussed by multiple ambassadors.
  • He says discussions had been ongoing for years, so the sudden pace now is the culmination of long-standing dialogue.
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