NAB Morning Call

Thursday 14th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEquities are rising, and not just in the US. In fact, the MSCI World Equities Index hit a record high overnight. But  bonds are the story today, says NAB’ s Gavin Friend, with 10year Treasury yields down 5 basis points. Markets have got a cut from the Fed fully priced in for September, but Scott Bessent said in an interview he’d like to see a 50bp cut at the next meeting. His boss, meanwhile, spoke out for 300bp of cuts or more.Phil and Gavin also talk about yesterday’s Australian wages data and look ahead to today’s employment data. Plus, UK’s GDP, expected to be very slow with the potential to tip into negative territory for Q2. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 13th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets have looked at the latest inflation data from the US, assumed companies are largely swallowing the cost of import tariffs, which removes the excuse for the Fed to hold off cutting rates in September. NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets are close to fully pricing a cut. The US dollar is weaker from the news but continued to fall as resident Trump once again criticised Jerome Powell for being too late to cut and threatened action to have him removed.Phil and Ken also talk about yesterday’s RBA decision, and the NAB business survey which showed a slight increase in business confidence, but a fall in conditions. Wage pressures continue to blight Blighty in yesterday’s labour market data, with Australia’s (significantly lower) wage growth data out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 12th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been very little market movement despite some surprising news. First, President Trump announced a 15% tariff on exports from NVIDIA and AMD for AI chips headed to China. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a surprising move that a restriction supposedly on national security grounds has been foregone in exchange for a government revenue stream. Secondly, the 90-day truce on China’s tariffs, due to finish today, has been given another 90 days. And concerns continue about what will happen at the Trump Putin meeting in Alaska on Friday, President Zelensky says the Russian President is buying time and he is now amassing more troops on the border ready for a fresh onslaught. Today the focus will be on US inflation numbers and forecasts from the RBA after their expected rate cut today.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ray Attrill, NAB's market economist and strategist, shares his insights on pivotal economic updates. He discusses the implications of new inflation data and the impact of a temporary Fed appointment on interest rates. The conversation also tackles geopolitical tensions, particularly the looming Trump-Putin meeting and its potential effect on oil prices. Attrill examines how tariffs, especially on gold, could reshape market dynamics, along with trends in employment data affecting central banks like Canada and Australia.

Friday 8th August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Cath Carver is NAB’s Head of Corporate and Institutional Banking. She’s been in the role for a year but is close to clocking up ten years with the bank, with a long track record in finance and banking before that. Towards the end of this podcast Phil asks her if there’s anything she would have done differently if, years back she knew what she knows now. Her reply is, she’d have been bolder. ‘Not that we’ve been holding back,’ she says, ‘but we’ve got to be bold for our clients.’ Part of that comes from working with diverse teams and allowing people to be themselves at work. They also talk about the state of the global economy, Australia’s opportunity within it, and how to address Australia’s housing affordability issue. Something else that Cath says is looking for a bold solution. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday8th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs of yesterday, US imports were hit with an average 15% tariff. Time will tell who is feeling the hurt the most, but on today’s podcast we hear about the impact on the auto industry, and German industrial production. China meanwhile saw exports rise again. On today’s podcast, as well as talking tariffs, NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the very close call on cuts from the Bank of England, revisions to NAB’s FX forecast for the Aussie dollar, and what to expect from, China’s CPI out this weekend. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 7th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS equities are up at the close. Helped by an announcement that Apple will invest heavily domestic production. It seems investors have forgotten weaker ISM and jobs data over the last week. India has been hit with another 25bp in tariffs for purchasing oil from India, although President Trump is now hoping to resolve the Ukraine crisis, possibly meeting with Putin next week. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through these events, plus stronger thane expected Europpean data, and looks ahead to the Bank of England meeting, where a cut is expected. The question is, how much by? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 6th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe S-word has been used a bit overnight as the US ISM Services number showed falls in employment, new orders and rising prices. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters points out, the counter to that is the PMI number for the same month, which rose substantially. So, pick your number, or wait for the dust to settle. Meanwhile President Trump threatened more tariffs during a CNBC interview overnight. He’s already warned India that they face substantial extra tariffs over their purchases of Russian oil, now he is warning of tariffs on microchips and pharmaceuticals  (ultimately rising to 250%!), kicking off within the next week.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 5th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABHas Friday’s jobs data been forgotten about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, pointing out that there’s very little movement in bond yields. But there’s been no retracement either and auctions this week will test the mettle of investors as to whether any long-term damage has been done by the BLS sacking and Trump’s moves on the Fed board. There’s been a further move down in oil, as India is threatened with increased tariffs for continuing to buy Russian oil. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th August July 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were sharp market moves on Friday after all the shenanigans in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill tells us how markets responded to a far weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report, that included two substantial reductions in the numbers for the prior two months. Market repriced expectations for a cut next month. That would seem to give the President what he wanted, but nonetheless he sacked the head of the statistical agency collecting the data. Markets responded to that news. Then one of the Fed board, Adriana Kugler, resigned, effective the end of this week, giving the President the chance to put his own man or woman onto the board. Quite a day! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.