NAB Morning Call Gold prices lower, yet uncertainty is piled higher
4 snips
Oct 21, 2025 Ray Attrill, a Senior NAB Markets strategist, dives into the intriguing dynamics of recent market movements. He analyzes the sharp drop in gold and silver, attributing it to speculative behaviors and ETF-driven buying. The uncertainty surrounding Trump's remarks about a potential meeting with Xi adds to market volatility. Ray also discusses the breakdown of typical asset correlations, questions the sustainability of sub-4% Treasury yields, and explores how shifts in Canadian and UK CPI might influence central bank rate decisions.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Speculative Buying Fueled The Gold Surge
- Gold's rally this year was driven by Western speculative buying unlike prior central bank demand.
- That shift means recent long positions are in less stable hands and can reverse sharply.
Gold And Equities Rising Together Is Unusual
- Gold and equities have unusually moved up together this year, breaking their typical inverse relationship.
- Ray warns such positive correlation episodes have historically sometimes preceded major market corrections.
Don't Rely Blindly On Correlations
- Avoid relying on historical correlations when placing trades because many correlations are breaking down.
- Ray suggests caution as applying trades to correlations can make them fail suddenly.