NAB Morning Call Yields fall with Aussie jobs slide
Dec 11, 2025
Gavin Friend, a NAB markets economist based in London, breaks down the latest Aussie jobs figures and their implications for the RBA's tightening policy. He discusses the fallout from the recent Fed meeting, highlighting a cautious tone and shifting market expectations. The podcast delves into the US trade deficit and potential impacts on GDP, alongside insights on Oracle's AI investments affecting tech shares. Gavin also reviews the Swiss National Bank's decision on interest rates and shares thoughts on UK economic forecasts amid political uncertainty.
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Jobs Drop But Trend Still Modest
- Australia's employment fell sharply with full-time jobs down 56,000 while unemployment held at 4.3%.
- Gavin Friend says monthly volatility masks trend employment of ~21,000 which is marginally below population growth needs.
Yields Retreat After Fed And Jobs
- Bond yields have pulled back after the Fed and softer Australian jobs, easing immediate pressure on RBA expectations.
- Gavin Friend notes more domestic data (jobs, monthlies, quarterlies) before the Feb RBA meeting will decide the path.
Fed Signals Caution, Markets Seek Payroll Clarity
- The Fed's dot plot implies one cut in 2026 and Powell sounded cautious about labour market uncertainty.
- Markets have trimmed expected cuts and next week's US payrolls could be pivotal for pricing.