NAB Morning Call Too early, too late and too much
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Nov 19, 2025 Gavin Friend, a NAB Markets economist in London, dives into the latest economic trends affecting global markets. He discusses the surprising fall in oil prices amidst oversupply fears, especially relating to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Gavin also breaks down Australia’s stable wage growth and the implications for the Reserve Bank, alongside easing inflation in the UK and its potential influence on the Bank of England's decisions. Delayed U.S. payroll numbers add to the market uncertainty as the Fed navigates challenging data.
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Market Uncertainty Ahead Of Big Data
- Markets were waiting on Nvidia and the Fed minutes left uncertainty ahead of the next meeting.
- The delayed US jobs data means the Fed will be 'flying blind' into December's meeting.
Australian Wage Growth Is Cooling
- Australia's Q3 Wage Price Index matched expectations at 3.4% year-on-year and signals ongoing labour tightness.
- Private-sector wage growth is softer than public, suggesting underlying wage pressures are easing.
UK Inflation Signals Peak May Be Past
- UK headline CPI eased to 3.6% and core to 3.4%, with services inflation falling to 4.5%.
- Markets priced in high odds of a December Bank of England cut after the softer prints.