NAB Morning Call He says, Xi Says
10 snips
Oct 30, 2025 Gavin Friend, a NAB Markets analyst based in London, shares insights on the recent Trump-Xi trade deal that surprisingly left markets lukewarm. He discusses how this deal impacts central banks' cautious stances, particularly the ECB and the Bank of Japan. Gavin dives into the mixed results from big tech earnings, drawing parallels between Nvidia's role in the market and historical gold rush dynamics. The conversation also highlights the implications of weak Chinese PMIs on global trade and growth.
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Deal Was More Pause Than Progress
- Markets shrugged at the Trump–Xi meeting because it mainly delayed tough issues rather than solved them.
- Investors want concrete details, not broad cordial statements, before changing positioning.
Fed Tone Lifted The Dollar
- Dollar strength reflected a less-dovish Fed message and a bump in yields after the meeting.
- Dollar/yen moves were the major driver rather than broad USD weakness.
BOJ Waiting On Wage Signals
- BOJ left policy unchanged and signalled it needs clearer wage data before hiking.
- Markets remain data-dependent and skeptical until Japan shows sustained domestic inflation pressures.