NAB Morning Call RBNZ cuts, BoE might, RBA won’t
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Nov 26, 2025 Gavin Friend, NAB's markets economist in London, shares his insights on crucial central bank movements. He decodes the RBNZ's potentially final hawkish cut and discusses the RBA's anticipated pause after an unexpected CPI spike. The focus shifts to the UK, where Gavin analyzes budget leaks, fiscal strategies, and the Bank of England's cut possibilities. With concerns over welfare spending and UK growth, he elaborates on the intertwined risks of political stability. Additionally, he connects AI-driven equities to the Fed's future actions, painting a vivid picture of the global market landscape.
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RBNZ Likely Done Easing
- The RBNZ's 25bp cut likely marks the end of its easing cycle given a high hurdle for future cuts.
- Gavin Friend says incoming activity and inflation indicators could push markets to reassess that stance.
Hot Monthly CPI Keeps RBA Sidelines
- Australia's first monthly CPI print surprised on the upside at 3.8% y/y and keeps the RBA on hold.
- Gavin Friend expects the RBA to remain inactive through 2026, with yields moving higher on the surprise.
RBNZ Signal: High Hurdle For More Cuts
- Governor Hawkesby signalled the OCR path is consistent with little further easing through 2026 despite weak activity.
- BNZ and NAB see modest upside risks in near-term GDP and CPI that could corroborate the RBNZ's cautious stance.