"Moment of Zen"

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The AI moment, AI vs crypto: a heated debate with Amjad Masad, Flo Crivello, and Nathan Labenz

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Jan 29, 2023

02:01:02

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INSIGHT

AI’s Cognitive Revolution Unfolds

Core AI advances like transformers and reinforcement learning converge to create a cognitive revolution.
This revolution will dramatically alter knowledge work and modern life over the next decade.

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INSIGHT

AI Leads Software Revolution

Large language models introduced a leap in AI generality allowing dynamic programming without retraining.
This rise democratizes software creation, enabling more people to build apps using simple language commands.

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INSIGHT

AI Empowers Developers Greatly

AI coding tools like GitHub Copilot significantly boost software engineer productivity by automating code writing.
This efficiency gain rivals past major leaps in programming technology such as IDEs and memory management.

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The Cognitive Revolution

01:33 • 2min

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Is the AI Moment Coming?

03:51 • 4min

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ML and AI - What's the AI Moment?

07:55 • 5min

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The Impact on Software

12:40 • 2min

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How Do You Quantify a Step Function Difference?

14:52 • 2min

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Stack Overflow Traffic Month Over Month Is Down 12%

16:35 • 2min

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Large Language Models Are Pre-Trained

18:44 • 4min

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Is the 10 X Engineer a 100 X Engineer?

22:54 • 2min

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Code Is the Window for the LM to Do More Interesting Things in the World

25:22 • 2min

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The LLMs Are All You Need for Backend

27:06 • 1min

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Is There a Replacement Dynamic?

28:35 • 2min

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Is AI Going to Be Replaced?

30:18 • 2min

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Is the Hype Cycle Really Capturing What's Happening?

Is the Bounty Model for Hiring Software Engineers a Good Idea?

40:27 • 2min

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The Battle System Isn't Going to Replace Employment

42:45 • 2min

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Is Rippling a Good Idea?

45:14 • 2min

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The Cost of Using the Market Will Eat a Lot More Work

47:35 • 2min

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Is There a Way to Reduce Transaction Costs?

49:47 • 3min

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What Kind of AI Companies Are Going to Be Durable?

52:43 • 4min

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What Is the Actual Product?

56:34 • 2min

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Sub Stack Is the Same Thing, but It's Not Free, Right?

58:30 • 2min

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Is There a Trend Line in AI Automation?

01:00:57 • 2min

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Is There a Difference Between AI and Humans?

01:03:01 • 2min

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The Jump in Generality of LMS

01:05:20 • 2min

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What Are the Main Applications That We're Going to See From Google?

01:07:21 • 3min

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Is There a Growth Stage Startup?

Is There a Way to Pay People for Their Contributions?

I'm Not a Platformer, but It's Not a Single Startup

01:21:25 • 2min

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Web Three Is a Reverse of Web Two

01:23:32 • 2min

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The Fucking Haterade of Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency and the Ponzi Schemes

01:35:30 • 2min

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The Problem With Economists Don't Work on Tony Adi

01:37:19 • 2min

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Is Bitcoin More Decentralized Than Ethereum?

01:38:52 • 2min

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AI, LM Stuff Is a Huge Use Case, Right?

01:40:40 • 2min

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Decentralized Stablecoin

01:42:13 • 1min

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Putting Twitter on the Blockchain Will Never Work

01:43:43 • 2min

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Decentralized Platforms Are Not Untrustworthy

01:45:23 • 2min

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Is There a Turing Complete Computer on the Blockchain?

01:46:54 • 2min

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Is There a Shift in the Blockchain?

01:49:19 • 2min

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Radical Access to Expertise Is Going to Be the Breakthrough Use Case

01:50:59 • 2min

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Is There a Future for Crypto Bitcoin?

01:52:32 • 6min

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Amjad Masad (@Amasad), Flo Crivello (@Altimor) and Nathan Labenz (@Labenz) join us for a heated debate on the AI moment. If you’re looking for an ERP platform, check out our sponsor, NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/zen

We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Preview of the debate

(00:30) Sponsor

(01:00) Nathan introducing our new upcoming AI podcast, The Cognitive Revolution

(03:45) Flo’s take on the AI moment and AGI

(08:20) Amjad’s take on the AI moment

(15:00) Is chatGPT a step function change?

(23:45) AI’s effect on coding

(34:40) Amjad believes AI is underhyped

(35:00) Bounties

(53:15) What AI companies should VCs invest in?

(57:30) Antonio/Flo pre-debate

(01:00:15) “All knowledge work will be automated in 20 years”

(01:01:00) Antonio’s AI skepticism

(01:05:20) the inflection point is a jump in generality

(01:06:00) Who will capture value, incumbents or startups?

(01:14:30) Segue into AI and crypto

(01:20:00) Flo’s crypto skepticism

(01:23:40) Antonio and Flo HEATED DEBATE

(01:26:30) Dan tries to calm everybody down

(01:27:00) Dan’s crypto perspective

(01:29:30) Antonio’s crypto perspective

(01:31:50) Amjad’s Bitcoin maximalist view

(01:34:55) Amjad’s hilarious rant on crypto ponzis

(01:38:00) Dan and Amjad debate Bitcoin/Ethereum

(01:40:00) AI vs Web 3 brawl

(01:52:32) Amjad’s AI predictions

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