Public and private discussions on Crimea differ significantly, with Western officials acknowledging the need for a territorial deal despite public rhetoric.
Reconquering all lost territories, including Crimea, is unlikely for Ukraine due to military challenges and risks of triggering Russian escalation.
Deep dives
Public vs. Private Views on Ukraine's Goals
Publicly, the Zelensky government has taken a hard line, emphasizing the need to recapture Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. However, private discussions reveal a more realistic view. There is recognition that complete victory is difficult, as Ukraine faces challenges like Russian artillery superiority and the potential escalation of Russian aggression. Despite public rhetoric, Western officials acknowledge that a territorial deal may be necessary and have a more pragmatic approach. The discrepancy between public and private views is significant and adds complexity to the resolution of the conflict.
The Challenges of Reconquering All Territory
While not completely impossible, reconquering all lost territories, including Crimea, is unlikely. The Ukrainian military, while resilient, would face difficulties in a defensive Russian position. Anti-tank weapons, artillery superiority, and urban area advantages favor the Russians, as seen in the extended battle for Bakhmut. Furthermore, the widespread use of mines on both sides further complicates and stabilizes the frontlines. The military landscape suggests that complete territorial gains are not feasible for Ukraine.
The Risk of Escalation and Challenges to Negotiate Peace
There is a risk that maintaining a public posture of total victory and refusing any compromise could lead to dangerous consequences. Ukrainian public sentiment, fueled by nationalist groups, believes that nothing short of complete Russian defeat and the return of Crimea is acceptable. However, seeking such a victory has potential risks, like triggering Russian escalation, including nuclear options. Internally, it may be challenging for President Zelensky to negotiate peace, as he faces pressure from hardline nationalists and a military committed to total victory. Finding a way to navigate these challenges and promote a ceasefire would require political courage and unity from Western leaders.
What the governments and media are saying in public is quite different to what they may be saying in private. Anatol Lieven, former war correspondent joins us to discuss the question of Crimea and how different the discussions in private are compared to what we hear in the public eye.