The Bayesian Conspiracy 1 – What Use is Rationality?
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Feb 18, 2016 Can rational thinking make people happier, improve decisions, or even win political battles? The discussion weighs evidence and intuition, explores how goals can clash with truth-seeking, and dives into cognitive biases like the halo effect. Along the way, they tackle steel-manning arguments, trusting experts, and whether putting probabilities on everyday choices actually helps.
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Rationality as a Toolkit
- Rationality is a toolkit for thinking and avoiding self-deception.
- It lays the groundwork for decision-making by ensuring good information and minimizing bias.
Heuristics and Rationality
- Heuristics are usually beneficial but can fail.
- Rationality involves understanding when heuristics are likely to be poorly calibrated.
Instrumental vs. Epistemic Rationality
- Instrumental rationality prioritizes achieving goals, even if it means befriending Dr. Oz.
- Epistemic rationality prioritizes truth, which may conflict with instrumental goals.