The Bayesian Conspiracy

I don't include empirical decision making as inherently rational here. So for example, if gift directly were the best charity I see, that is more of a data driven outcome than a rational one. But I don't understand why this should be the case. After all, the Bayesian priors for any real life problem aren't available. And if you're estimating, how are you doing better than somebody using their knowledge and intuition? That's really long. Let's we'll tackle it piece by piece. Just do the first line. Do you want to start with the first sentence? Let's do it. Is there any evidence that a rational approach to decision making, either on a personal