NAB Morning Call

Tapas Strickland, NAB’s market economist and strategist, dives into pressing economic concerns. He discusses the potential peace talks between Ukraine and key political leaders, breathing optimism into the market. Strickland highlights signs of U.S. economic weakness, including increased trade deficits and shifting consumer behavior. He raises alarms about possible rate cuts amid these developments and examines the implications of tariffs on North American trade. Unique insights on global inflation trends and Australian economic forecasts are also revealed.

Dr. John Kunkel, a Senior Economics Advisor at the United States Studies Centre, dives into the economic repercussions of Trump's policies on Australia. He discusses how Australia's relationship with the U.S. is evolving under these unpredictable strategies. The conversation touches on the complexities of tariffs, the need for increased defense spending, and navigating trade dynamics with both the U.S. and China. Kunkel emphasizes that while challenges exist, Australia is strategically positioned to benefit from U.S. growth, despite the tumultuous global landscape.

Gavin Friend, a market economist and strategist at NAB London, unpacks the recent wave of tariff announcements from President Trump and their implications for global markets. He discusses the sharp reactions in currencies, stock prices, and commodities, particularly focusing on the geopolitical factors at play. The talk also covers economic indicators like US PCE numbers and Australian capex, emphasizing how external events, including extreme weather, are influencing jobless claims and employment trends. It's a deep dive into the ever-shifting economic landscape.

Ray Attrill, NAB's market strategist, dives into the latest tariff delays for Mexico and Canada and announces the hefty 25% tariffs set for Europe. He shares insights on how these changes are impacting market reactions and trade relations. With a weaker-than-expected CPI in Australia, Attrill highlights potential monetary policy shifts and rate cuts. The discussion also touches on trends in private construction and what these economic indicators could mean for future growth and consumer confidence.

In this discussion, Tapas Strickland, a market economist at NAB, dives into the tumultuous economic waters stirred by potential US tariffs on Canada and Mexico. He highlights concerns over possible job losses in the steel and aluminum sectors, citing Alcoa's alarming warning. The conversation touches on shifts in consumer sentiment influenced by inflation fears and explores broader economic indicators, including Australia’s CPI, inviting listeners to consider the ripple effects of global trade tensions.

In this discussion, Sally Auld, NAB’s Chief Economist in waiting, shares her insights on market trends amidst a backdrop of geopolitical tensions. She highlights a rise in U.S. equities, despite soft economic indicators like the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey. Auld also delves into the implications of Germany's increased defense spending and Europe’s evolving stance on Ukraine. Additionally, she points to New Zealand's impressive retail sales as a sign of economic recovery, suggesting a cautious optimism for the markets ahead.

Political turbulence looms in Germany as Friedrich Merz contemplates coalition-building amidst a fragmented electorate and rising influence from the far right. Meanwhile, the U.S. faces economic anxiety, with plunging consumer sentiment and concerning inflation trends contributing to falling share prices. Additionally, emerging health threats like a new coronavirus strain exacerbate market uncertainty, raising questions about government policies and their impact on the economy. The backdrop of geopolitical tensions adds another layer of complexity to the unfolding financial landscape.

In this insightful discussion, Dr. Simon Toubeau, an Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at Nottingham University, examines the critical German elections approaching. He analyzes the rise of the center-right CDU/CSU, the lurking presence of the AfD, and coalition dynamics. The conversation also tackles pressing issues like defense spending amidst the Ukraine crisis and the potential role of euro bonds. Dr. Toubeau raises important questions about Germany's fiscal policies and the implications of a shifting political landscape on Europe.

Join Rodrigo Catril, NAB’s market economist and strategist, as he delves into the complex interplay of politics and economics. He discusses Walmart's uncertain outlook and its implications for the US economy. The conversation shifts to Donald Trump's comments on a potential China deal, stirring global market reactions. Catril also analyzes the recent spike in Australian unemployment amidst job growth, shedding light on seasonal factors. Lastly, he highlights the political stakes in Germany's upcoming federal election and its impact on European policies.

Explore the European Central Bank's questioning of its interest rate policies and market reactions to central bank news. Delve into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's unexpected rate cuts and the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve amid ongoing inflation. A significant drop in U.S. housing starts raises concerns, while all eyes are on Australia's unemployment rate, with tight expectations that could sway market reactions. Tune in for insights on how these factors intertwine with global economic trends.