Tariffs: Mexico and Canada delayed, 25% coming Europe’s way
Feb 26, 2025
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Ray Attrill, NAB's market strategist, dives into the latest tariff delays for Mexico and Canada and announces the hefty 25% tariffs set for Europe. He shares insights on how these changes are impacting market reactions and trade relations. With a weaker-than-expected CPI in Australia, Attrill highlights potential monetary policy shifts and rate cuts. The discussion also touches on trends in private construction and what these economic indicators could mean for future growth and consumer confidence.
President Trump's decision to delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada has slightly relieved pressure on their respective currencies while maintaining market uncertainty.
Australia's weaker-than-expected CPI figures indicate potential support for a rate cut by the RBA as economic conditions remain mixed globally.
Deep dives
Trump's Cabinet Meeting and Tariff Updates
President Trump provided significant updates during his first cabinet meeting regarding tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and the European Union. The tariffs for Mexico and Canada have been delayed, which has relieved some pressure on the Canadian dollar and allowed the Mexican peso to recover slightly. Trump announced that the tariffs on the EU will generally be set at 25%, although he left room for exceptions, particularly regarding cars and other goods. This mixture of clarity and vagueness has left market participants hopeful that the situation may be resolved without severe impacts.
Economic Indicators and Market Reactions
Recent economic data highlighted Australia’s lower-than-expected monthly CPI figures, largely due to declines in rent and housing costs. These trends may support the RBA's potential decision for another rate cut in May, particularly as the upcoming quarterly numbers are anticipated to influence inflation expectations. In the U.S., economic conditions appear mixed, with the bond market responding cautiously to the recent budget approval that could add significantly to the national deficit over the next decade. The volatility in currencies including the US dollar and the Australian dollar reflects uncertainty surrounding these economic developments.
NVIDIA Earnings and Broader Business Outlook
Ahead of NVIDIA's earnings release, market sentiments remained varied, with tech stocks showing some resilience despite broader mixed performance in equity markets. The company’s earnings results are expected to have significant implications, especially as investor confidence in the Nasdaq hangs by a thread. Meanwhile, discussions are taking place around the future of commercial real estate, with changing dynamics in work habits due to AI leading to potential shifts in demand for office space. As economic indicators are released, such as consumer spending and business confidence figures, market participants are keeping a close eye on these trends to gauge their impact on future economic health.
President Trump has his first cabinet meeting and announced delays on the introduction of tariffs for Mexico and Canada (now April 2nd) and revealed how much Europe will be paying (25%) although he was a bit nonspecific on some of the detail. Nab’S Ray Attrill says the US Houe of Reps has also passed the budget, which includes big spending cuts, but tax cuts see the deficit expanding. It did impact bond yields a little, but there’s not been much market reaction to the latest tariff talk. Locally, CPI came in a little weaker than expected, helped by a continued fall in housing costs which could help bring down the next quarterly CPI result and keep the RVBA on track for a May cut