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NAB Morning Call
Feeling Risky
Feb 25, 2025
In this discussion, Tapas Strickland, a market economist at NAB, dives into the tumultuous economic waters stirred by potential US tariffs on Canada and Mexico. He highlights concerns over possible job losses in the steel and aluminum sectors, citing Alcoa's alarming warning. The conversation touches on shifts in consumer sentiment influenced by inflation fears and explores broader economic indicators, including Australia’s CPI, inviting listeners to consider the ripple effects of global trade tensions.
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Quick takeaways
- The impending U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are stirring economic uncertainty and potential job losses in the U.S. aluminum industry.
- Geopolitical tensions are prompting increased defense spending in Europe, signaling a shift towards economic reforms despite overall global economic uncertainty.
Deep dives
Economic Uncertainty and Consumer Confidence
There is a significant sense of economic uncertainty driven by various factors including U.S. tariffs, rising inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions in Europe. The ongoing discourse around tariffs, especially with Canada and Mexico, is causing fluctuations in market confidence, as businesses brace for potential disruptions. Recent consumer surveys indicate a drop in consumer confidence, with expectations falling sharply, raising alarms about possible recession signals. This decline in sentiment is highlighted by the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell from 105.3 to 98.3, marking its steepest monthly drop since August 2021.
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