NAB Morning Call

Taylor Nugent, NAB’s expert on monetary policy, breaks down the recent RBA rate cut and its surprising cautious outlook for future cuts. He discusses how investor sentiment is shifting with the latest employment data from the UK and inflation trends in Canada. The conversation also touches on global geopolitical dynamics, including US-Russia talks and Europe’s push for a unified defense strategy. Insightful, timely, and full of economic intrigue, this discussion is a must-listen for anyone following market movements.

Tapas Strickland, NAB’s expert market economist and strategist, dives into the complexity of European defense amid rising geopolitical tensions. He discusses how U.S. pressure for Europe to boost self-reliance is driving a surge in defense stocks. The conversation highlights implications of OPEC+ decisions on oil prices and explores Japan's unexpectedly strong GDP growth. Strickland also critiques the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious stance on interest rate cuts while unpacking the intricate dynamics between the EU, the U.S., and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

Monday 17th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou’d have thought, perhaps, that the threat of tariffs on any country charging GST on US imports (most OECD countries) would have had a string market reaction at the end of the week, but it didn’t. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether markets have stopped believing him and assumes all such proclamations and merely a prelude to some sort of negotiated deal. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to weaken and is now actually lower than when the President  returned to the Oval Office. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates tomorrow, but Ray says it’s not as a clear a cut as markets are suggesting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil talks with NAB's CEO, Andrew Irvine, discussing the uncertainty of international trade and the slow road to lower inflation. What impact does he think a global trade war (if it gets to that) could have on Australia? And what can we expect after the assumed RBA rate cut next week? The NAB chief has spent some time in Europe and talks through how our economic fundamentals stack up against the UK and Europe. Whilst Australia has many natural advantages, he points to the lack of productivity growth as the biggest issue we face. Confidence is also key he says, because that drives investment decisions.There’s also discussion about scam regulation. Phil points to the UK where banks are obliged (to an extent) to refund scam victims. Do we need the same approach or are there more significant ways of reducing the problem, particularly as AI threatens to make the issue worse.Listen in for Andrew Irvine’s take on the economy and the prospects for the year ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPresident Trump has announced that his reciprocal tariffs could start as soon as April. The surprise has been that he is not just looking at the topline balance of trade. He considers a VAT imposed on American goods as an impost that needs to be countered. That could be bad news for the EU, the UK, Australia and other countries who have favoured indirect taxation higher income tax. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’ll be bad news from Europe, where shares rallied today on the hope that peace-deal for Ukraine will see energy costs come down. Meanwhile, US retail sales are out later, will this add to the watering down of American exceptionalism that we’ve seen this year? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDonald Trump posted on Truth Social that the Fed should lower interest rates to go hand in hand with tariffs, adding, “lets Rock and Roll, America!!!” It hasn’t unnerved Jerome Powell who was giving his testimony the House Economics Committee. His case for moving cautiously was evidenced by US inflation data which ticked unexpectedly higher hitting the dollar and US equities. JBWere’s Sally Auld says today is another day where markets have reversed their enthusiasm late last year for US exceptionalism. It was a strong day for the Euro and European equities, though, thanks to a positive phone call between Trump and Putin and hopes that the end is in sight for the Ukraine war. But, obviously, way too early to assume too much. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Trump administration is pushing ahead with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium. Australia still hopes it will be exempt, but there are no guarantees and, in any case, NAB’s Taylor Nugent argues there will be second-order impacts as the tariffs hit China. The EU meanwhile has promised swift retaliation, with the various trade ministers meeting today to map out their approach. Curiously, European equities are doing somewhat better than the US. The US dollar has also weakened, despite the President’s promise that the tariffs will make America rich again. The NAB Business Survey showed a slight rise in confidence, as business conditions softened. The latest small business survey in the US also back tracked a little. Today the main focus, apart from tariff news, is the latest setoff US CPI numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTariffs could be back, with Donald Trump warning of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US. That would hit Mexico and Canada particularly hard, just as they thought they were off the hook (for now at least). But NAB’s Gavin Friend says there hasn’t been much more news on this since the President made the announcement on Sair Force One on Sunday. There’s some discussion about the three different classes of tariffs Trump could deploy and whether regions like Europe could be in the firing line. Gavin suggests a string representation of the new US administration at events in Europe this week could be part of a fact-finding mission to guide policy. Meanwhile, markets are positively sanguine, as they wait the next chapter in Trump’s trade plan. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 10th February 2025NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABToday China’s retaliatory measures against the US take effect and it seems unlikely that the event will pass without comment and threats from the US President. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Trump might also elaborate on his plans for other regions, such as the EU. Meanwhile jobs numbers from the US on Friday has pushed back expectations around the timing of cuts by the Fed, reinforced by a rise in inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey on Friday. Aside from tariff news it’s a relatively quiet week, although it’ll be interested to see how Jerome Powell faces two days of questions from parliamentarians this week, Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 31st Janaury 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Last year was a stellar year for growth. Kylie Willment, chief investment officer at Mercer, says they provided a 14 percent return for their superfunds in2024. She highlights a number of opportunities for this year. including growth in private markets. But how will she weather the uncertainty of a Trump administration, where radical trade policies can be implemented quickly? Will Mercer be shying away from investments in areas likely to attract tariffs, like Europe for example? And is AI a technology that will continue to dominate? Do you invest more in it, or diversity away from it? Kylie says we can ‘t expect to see the same level of growth this year, but is she willing to have a stab in the dark and predict the sort of returns we could see?ase note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.