NAB Morning Call RBA easing slowly. More cuts “no lay-down misère”
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Feb 18, 2025 Taylor Nugent, NAB’s expert on monetary policy, breaks down the recent RBA rate cut and its surprising cautious outlook for future cuts. He discusses how investor sentiment is shifting with the latest employment data from the UK and inflation trends in Canada. The conversation also touches on global geopolitical dynamics, including US-Russia talks and Europe’s push for a unified defense strategy. Insightful, timely, and full of economic intrigue, this discussion is a must-listen for anyone following market movements.
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RBA's Cautious Cut
- The RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points, but their cautious stance suggests this might be a one-off for a while.
- Governor Bullock pushed back against market expectations of successive cuts, emphasizing the need for continued evidence of progress on inflation.
NAB's Differing Forecast
- NAB predicts three more rate cuts this year, totaling 100 basis points, despite the RBA's caution.
- Their differing forecasts stem from varying outlooks on unemployment, growth, and inflation.
UK Employment Holds Steady
- UK employment figures showed a steady rate of 4.4%, defying predictions of a slight increase.
- This positive news comes despite concerns about rising payroll taxes impacting hiring.