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NAB Morning Call

US & Europe: Divided they stand

Feb 17, 2025
Tapas Strickland, NAB’s expert market economist and strategist, dives into the complexity of European defense amid rising geopolitical tensions. He discusses how U.S. pressure for Europe to boost self-reliance is driving a surge in defense stocks. The conversation highlights implications of OPEC+ decisions on oil prices and explores Japan's unexpectedly strong GDP growth. Strickland also critiques the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious stance on interest rate cuts while unpacking the intricate dynamics between the EU, the U.S., and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
16:50

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • European leaders are significantly increasing defense spending to reduce reliance on the US, impacting defense stocks and market dynamics.
  • China is shifting towards a supportive stance for its tech sector, potentially revitalizing growth and positively affecting Chinese tech stocks.

Deep dives

European Defence Spending Surge

European leaders are taking steps to boost defense spending in light of increasing tensions, particularly concerning Ukraine, while aiming to reduce reliance on the United States. The emergency summit of EU leaders has prompted significant increases in European defense stocks, with companies like Rheinmetall, Saab AB, and BAE Systems seeing their share prices surge. Discussions focus on the potential for joint financing and relaxing EU fiscal rules to support an estimated additional cost of 3.1 trillion euros over the next decade dedicated to defense enhancements. Market reactions indicate a desire for more substantial defense commitments from Europe, and speculation grows around how this shift will affect U.S.-European relations moving forward.

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