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NAB Morning Call
Keeping the dream alive
Mar 2, 2025
Tapas Strickland, NAB’s market economist and strategist, dives into pressing economic concerns. He discusses the potential peace talks between Ukraine and key political leaders, breathing optimism into the market. Strickland highlights signs of U.S. economic weakness, including increased trade deficits and shifting consumer behavior. He raises alarms about possible rate cuts amid these developments and examines the implications of tariffs on North American trade. Unique insights on global inflation trends and Australian economic forecasts are also revealed.
16:38
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Quick takeaways
- Recent peace negotiations involving Ukraine and key European leaders may foster diplomatic solutions, thus maintaining market optimism.
- Signs of economic softness in the US, marked by a rising trade deficit and changing GDP forecasts, are fueling concerns over potential slowdowns.
Deep dives
Market Reactions to Geopolitical Events
The recent press conference involving President Trump, J.D. Vance, and Ukrainian President Zelensky had a significant impact on market behavior. Following the event, the US dollar appreciated by 0.33%, while the Australian dollar and the yen both declined by 0.5%. Additionally, bond yields fell, with the US 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.21%. Despite overall market volatility and weak US economic data, the S&P 500 experienced a rebound, climbing 2.6% on Friday, though it still remained down 2.7% for the week.
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