The Numbers

The new cabinet appointments reveal potential electoral strategies at play. The looming byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot ignites discussions on Alberta's separatist sentiments. Polling trends in Ontario and Quebec highlight the Parti Québécois's substantial lead as the Quebec Liberal leadership race heats up. The complexities of Alberta’s political landscape, including Premier Daniel Smith's popularity, add further intrigue. Overall, the interplay between regional dynamics and voter sentiment shapes a fascinating narrative.

With referendums on separation a real possibility in the not-so-distant future, is there a chance that Alberta and/or Saskatchewan could vote to leave the country? We take a look at some of the latest polling numbers on the subject on this episode of The Numbers.Plus, both the Conservatives and New Democrats have named some interim leaders (Andrew Scheer as head of the opposition until Pierre Poilievre gets into the House, and Don Davies as interim NDP leader until his replacement is named). What can we read into these choices? And does it matter that the judicial recount in Terrebonne has pushed the Liberals one seat closer to an outright majority?Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With a recent election result leaving a Liberal minority, the discussion centers on how long this government can last. Insights into the demographic shifts in voting patterns reveal surprising trends, particularly among age and gender groups. The speakers dive into trust issues surrounding election integrity and the future of key political figures like Pierre Poilievre. Engaging quizzes on historical races add a fun twist, making for an entertaining and thought-provoking political analysis.

It was a remarkable end to an unprecedented few months in Canadian politics. Mark Carney’s Liberals came up just short of a majority with 169 seats, while the Conservatives won 144 seats but did not see their leader, Pierre Poilievre, win his. The New Democrats put up their worst performance in all of their history and saw leader Jagmeet Singh go down to defeat as well. But with seven seats, the NDP still holds the balance of power — as does Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois.So, there are lots of numbers to go into on this episode of The Numbers. How did the polls perform? How did our projections do? And what results surprised us the most?Thanks for all of your support during this campaign! We’re going to go back to a weekly schedule of episodes, with bonus episodes for members of our Patreon. Become a member to continue supporting this podcast and to get access to those episodes as well as to our lively Discord server. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney’s Liberals still hold a lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in our projections with only days to go before this campaign is all over. Will anything change between now and Monday?On this episode of The Numbers, we go over our projections and discuss whether or not the polls are really tightening. We then take a look at where each party stands and assess what would be a good or bad night for each of them. Can Jagmeet Singh’s NDP retain official party status? Will Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois hold the balance of power? Can the Greens avoid disaster?And, of course, who will win the election?Thanks for all of your support during this campaign! We’ll have one more final episode on Saturday for members of our Patreon. You can listen to that episode and join our Discord by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We’re in the final week of this federal election campaign and the polls are still showing that Mark Carney’s Liberals remain the heavy favourites against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But if the Liberals are in majority territory today, just how much of a cushion do they really have?This week on The Numbers, we delve into the national polling numbers and our (somewhat differing) projections. We also take a look at some local polling in the Greater Toronto Area and on Vancouver Island.Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The polls suggest the race could be getting closer between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But the Liberals are still way ahead in Quebec. Did last night’s French-language leaders’ debate change that?On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened during the debate and whether it’ll have any impact on the polls. We also chat about what appears to be a tightening race and where our projections disagree.Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Recent polls reveal intriguing shifts between the Liberals and Conservatives. The discussion delves into the complexities of Canadian political polling, highlighting discrepancies and regional dynamics. Insights are shared on the implications of candidate availability for smaller parties, while frustrations with debate commission rules are also noted. The contrasting performances of key politicians in Quebec spark conversation about communication styles. Overall, the episode offers intriguing projections about a potentially shifting electoral landscape.

Exploring the current political landscape, the discussion breaks down polling trends and voter dynamics, revealing challenges for the Conservatives. Skepticism about poll accuracy is highlighted, especially during rallies, prompting a need for data-driven insights. The reliability of past polls in U.S. elections is analyzed, showcasing the rarity of significant discrepancies. Attention shifts to the electoral shifts in key regions, indicating a rise for the Liberals while the NDP struggles, setting the stage for an intriguing final stretch of the campaign.

Delve into the intriguing world of political polling as contrasting results raise questions about voter sentiment. Are the Liberals really leading, or is it too close to call with the Conservatives? Explore the dynamics of Metro Vancouver's political landscape, highlighting the NDP's struggles. Discover the remarkable journey of a rising political star, from bartender to potential game-changer. Plus, learn how shifts in voter preference might reshape the political narrative in Canada. It's a fascinating look at the numbers behind the polls!