The Numbers

Who's going to win the election?

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Apr 24, 2025
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INSIGHT

Election Margin Tightening Insights

  • The margin between Liberals and Conservatives is tightening but remains within statistical margins.
  • Conservatives appear to have hit a ceiling around 39% support, limiting their path to victory.
INSIGHT

Liberal Majority Cushion Fragility

  • Liberals currently project a 14-seat majority cushion, which is not a large margin.
  • Small shifts in key provinces could easily reduce the Liberals to a minority government.
INSIGHT

Liberal Majority Odds and Poll Limits

  • Both hosts estimate about two-thirds chance the Liberals will win a majority.
  • Polls underestimate Conservatives, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which narrows the Liberal majority odds.
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