The Numbers Keep calm and trust the averages
Apr 14, 2025
Recent polls reveal intriguing shifts between the Liberals and Conservatives. The discussion delves into the complexities of Canadian political polling, highlighting discrepancies and regional dynamics. Insights are shared on the implications of candidate availability for smaller parties, while frustrations with debate commission rules are also noted. The contrasting performances of key politicians in Quebec spark conversation about communication styles. Overall, the episode offers intriguing projections about a potentially shifting electoral landscape.
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Polling Divergence
- Polls show a divergence between the Liberals and Conservatives.
- Main Street Research shows Conservatives leading, while other polls show Liberals ahead.
Main Street's Stable Numbers
- Main Street Research's Conservative support has been unusually stable.
- Philippe J. Fournier analyzes Main Street's data, noting its consistency and sudden shift.
Regression to the Mean
- Ipsos's initial 12-point Liberal lead regressed to a 6-point lead, closer to the average.
- This exemplifies the concept of regression to the mean in polling.