The Numbers Carney's cabinet, Poilievre's byelection
May 19, 2025
The new cabinet appointments reveal potential electoral strategies at play. The looming byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot ignites discussions on Alberta's separatist sentiments. Polling trends in Ontario and Quebec highlight the Parti Québécois's substantial lead as the Quebec Liberal leadership race heats up. The complexities of Alberta’s political landscape, including Premier Daniel Smith's popularity, add further intrigue. Overall, the interplay between regional dynamics and voter sentiment shapes a fascinating narrative.
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Limited Electoral Impact of Cabinet Ministers
- Cabinet ministers in Canada often do not have a significant electoral advantage at the local level.
- Only those with strong personal profiles, like Mélanie Joly, show measurable bumps.
Quebec Polling and Sovereignty Support
- The Parti Québécois leads provincial polling at about 33%, with the Quebec Liberals and CAQ statistically tied.
- Despite PQ's lead, support for Quebec sovereignty remains low across demographics.
Alberta Separatism Differs from Quebec
- Alberta's separatist sentiment is mostly rural and partisan, unlike Quebec's broader sovereignty movement.
- Alberta separation is driven mainly by right-wing conservatives and lacks the diverse support seen in Quebec.