ChinaPower

Dr. Kyle Jaros, an expert in urban and regional development, and Dr. Sara Newland, a scholar of local politics in China and Taiwan, discuss the shifting dynamics of U.S.-China subnational diplomacy. They highlight the increasing politicization of local relations, with local officials mirroring national sentiments on Taiwan issues, contributing to rising Sinophobia. Despite these tensions, they note opportunities for cooperation, particularly through university student exchanges. They emphasize the need for continued human-to-human connections and resource education for local leaders.

Dr. Mihaela Papa, a BRICS expert from MIT, dives into the evolving dynamics of the BRICS coalition. She discusses its significance in promoting a multipolar world and the surge of interest from Global South countries. China's leadership role is emphasized, particularly in trade and AI innovation. The conversation also highlights BRICS' de-dollarization efforts and the complexities tied to U.S. relations amidst shifting political landscapes. With her extensive background, Dr. Papa sheds light on how BRICS could reshape global governance.

Dr. Matthew Funaiole and Mr. Brian Hart dive into China's polar ambitions, highlighting its strategic interests in the Arctic and Antarctic. Funaiole discusses the implications of China's new research station in Antarctica, emphasizing its dual-use potential. Hart elaborates on the challenges China faces in forming Arctic partnerships and its cooperation with Russia. Their analysis also underscores the importance of transparency in China's polar operations and the significant implications for U.S. security interests and global governance.

Ely Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, and Michael Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, delve into the U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 China Military Power Report. They analyze advancements within the People’s Liberation Army, highlighting concerns over military spending and nuclear arsenal growth. The discussion also uncovers the impacts of corruption within the PLA and examines evolving Chinese military dynamics, notably regarding Taiwan, the South China Sea, and China-Russia military ties.

Dr. Feng Zhang, a Visiting Scholar at Yale Law School, specializes in Chinese foreign policy and East Asian international relations. He discusses the strained China-North Korea relationship, heavily influenced by North Korea's growing ties with Russia. Dr. Zhang notes that China's influence is waning due to UN sanctions and the pandemic. He highlights China's challenge in navigating these dynamics without provoking Pyongyang further. The conversation delves into the complexities of regional stability and China's cautious approach to North Korean provocations amid rising U.S. pressures.

In this conversation, Dr. Ryan Berg, the Director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, shares insights on China's burgeoning influence in Latin America. He discusses how China views the region as crucial for its economic ambitions, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative. Dr. Berg highlights the contrasting approaches between U.S. strategic neglect and China's proactive engagement. He also examines public perceptions of China post-COVID and Xi Jinping's recent trip, marking a new era of competitive dynamics in Latin American partnerships.

Ivan Kanapathy, a Senior VP at Beacon Global Strategies and former National Security Council director, discusses the implications of a potential second Trump administration on U.S.-China relations. He emphasizes continuity in Trump's approach, highlighting strategies to counter China's aggression and maintain U.S. alliances. Kanapathy applauds Trump's tariffs as effective for diversifying imports and calls for clearer U.S. leadership and deterrence strategies. He also touches on the evolution of alliances like Quad and AUKUS, and the necessity of adapting U.S. policies in the Indo-Pacific.

Rick Waters, Managing Director at Eurasia Group's China practice and former U.S. State Department China policy official, shares insights on China's perspective of a potential second Trump administration. He discusses how China viewed the first term as two phases—initially transactional, later marked by tension over COVID-19. Waters highlights China's anticipation of U.S. moves and assesses implications of Republican dominance in Congress. He also explores the evolving geopolitical landscape involving Taiwan, North Korea, and NATO's presence in the Indo-Pacific.

Jon Czin, a prominent foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution, delves into the complexities of leadership decision-making within China. He highlights the surprising concentration of power under Xi Jinping, explored through a humanistic lens. Czin contrasts Xi's unique leadership style with that of his predecessors, discussing his focus on internal corruption and governance challenges. He also touches on how domestic issues influence China's foreign policy and its rising stature as a geopolitical force, particularly in light of U.S. dynamics and upcoming elections.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Taylor Fravel, Dr. George Gilboy, and Dr. Eric Heginbotham join us to discuss their recent article assessing China's defense budget. They challenge widely cited figures that estimate China's defense spending at $700 billion and provide an apples-to-apples analysis based on purchasing power parity. They assess China's defense spending is around $470 billion, about one-third of the U.S. defense budget, and detail what categories they included and excluded. The conversation explores the analytical shortcomings of current estimates, emphasizing the need for appropriate exchange rates and like-for-like item comparisons between China's and the U.S.'s defense budgets. They also discuss China's military priorities and modernization efforts and key factors that may determine the future trajectory of Chinese defense spending.   Dr. M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the Security Studies Program at MIT, specializing in international security with a focus on China and East Asia. He is the author of Strong Borders, Secure Nation and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949, with numerous publications in leading journals like International Security and Foreign Affairs. A Rhodes Scholar and Andrew Carnegie Fellow, he holds degrees from Middlebury, Stanford, LSE, and Oxford. Fravel also serves on the board of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and leads the Maritime Awareness Project.  Dr. George J. Gilboy is a senior fellow at the Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). George concurrently heads Woodside Energy’s Tokyo office. From 2013 to 2018, George was chief economist and vice president of business environment in Perth, leading Woodside’s corporate forecasting team. George lived and worked in China from 1994 to 2013 in roles with Woodside, Shell, Cambridge Energy Research, and Tsinghua University. George holds a BA from Boston College and a PhD in political economy from MIT.  Dr. Eric Heginbotham is a principal research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues. Before joining MIT, he was a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he led research projects on China, Japan, and regional security issues and regularly briefed senior military, intelligence, and political leaders. Prior to that he was a senior fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. After graduating from Swarthmore College, Heginbotham earned his PhD in political science from MIT. He is fluent in Chinese and Japanese and was a captain in the US Army Reserve.