Recent Developments in Sino-Russian Relations: A Conversation with Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick
Aug 28, 2024
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Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior research scientist and former political science professor specializing in Sino-Russian relations, delves into the nuances of recent China-Russia interactions. She deciphers the implications of the May 2024 Xi-Putin summit and highlights new military exercises that showcase their strategic coordination. Wishnick also discusses the significance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and predicts the future trajectory of Sino-Russian ties amidst rising global tensions.
The recent Xi-Putin meetings reflect a complex, evolving partnership that balances significant cooperation with notable areas of divergence, particularly regarding Taiwan.
An increase in Sino-Russian military exercises demonstrates their strategic coordination in response to external pressures, showcasing both political signaling and variable operational collaboration.
Deep dives
Sino-Russian Summit Insights
Recent meetings between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin reflect a deepening partnership between China and Russia, although there are notable discrepancies in their public statements. The joint declaration from the 2024 summit highlights continuity in their relationship while also revealing areas of divergence, such as the differing interpretations of Taiwan’s status. Although they both assert that Taiwan is part of China, the absence of definitive language indicates a careful approach to sensitive issues. The joint statement also acknowledges global instability as a backdrop for their cooperation, underscoring their agreement on many fronts, despite some differences in specifics.
Increased Military Activities
China and Russia have significantly ramped up their military collaboration, engaging in multiple joint exercises across various regions within a short timeframe. This unprecedented level of military activity is attributed to growing pressures from NATO and U.S. allies, prompting both nations to showcase their military capabilities. While the exercises serve as a platform for political signaling, the extent of coordination and interoperability between their forces varies based on the specifics of each drill. Notably, recent maneuvers have included live-fire drills and strategic bombers operating in tandem, indicating some level of operational collaboration amid their differing geopolitical interests.
Future of China-Russia Relations
Looking ahead, the future of Sino-Russian relations hinges on their ability to navigate external pressures while maintaining a united front. Although high-level meetings between Xi and Putin are anticipated, the frequency of joint military exercises may normalize after this summer’s peak activity. Both nations continue to support each other in the face of U.S. challenges, yet uncertainties remain regarding the depth of their partnership. Upcoming events, such as the BRICS summit and the anniversary of diplomatic relations, may present new opportunities for collaboration, further defining the trajectory of their alliance.
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick joins us to discuss recent Sino-Russian activities and what they mean for the overall China-Russia relationship. Dr. Wishnick analyzes the May 2024 Xi-Putin meeting in Beijing, noting that the joint statement the two countries released had significant areas of continuity and some areas of change compared to 2023. She then analyzes the meeting between the two leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and the nearly half a dozen military exercises the two countries engaged in in July and August 2024. Dr. Wishnick emphasizes that the recent surge of China-Russia military exercises are meant to signal China-Russia political and strategic coordination, with some scheduled in advance as part of their normal annual exercise plans and others scheduled in response to U.S. activities. Finally, Dr. Wishnick shares her predictions for developments within Sino-Russian relations in the coming months.
Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick is a Senior Research Scientist in the China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division at CNA. She was a Professor of Political Science at Montclair State University from 2005-2024 and the Coordinator of MSU’s Asian Studies Undergraduate Minor from 2010-2019. Since 2002, she has been a research scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute. She previously taught undergraduate and graduate courses in international relations, Chinese politics, and Chinese foreign policy at Barnard College, Columbia College, and SIPA. Dr. Wishnick has dual regional expertise on China and Russia and is an expert on Chinese foreign policy, Sino-Russian relations, Northeast Asian and Central Asian security, and Arctic geopolitics. She received a PhD in Political Science from Columbia University, an MA in Russian and East European Studies from Yale University, and a BA from Barnard College. She speaks Mandarin, Russian, and French.
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