Ely Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, and Michael Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, delve into the U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 China Military Power Report. They analyze advancements within the People’s Liberation Army, highlighting concerns over military spending and nuclear arsenal growth. The discussion also uncovers the impacts of corruption within the PLA and examines evolving Chinese military dynamics, notably regarding Taiwan, the South China Sea, and China-Russia military ties.

Dr. Feng Zhang, a Visiting Scholar at Yale Law School, specializes in Chinese foreign policy and East Asian international relations. He discusses the strained China-North Korea relationship, heavily influenced by North Korea's growing ties with Russia. Dr. Zhang notes that China's influence is waning due to UN sanctions and the pandemic. He highlights China's challenge in navigating these dynamics without provoking Pyongyang further. The conversation delves into the complexities of regional stability and China's cautious approach to North Korean provocations amid rising U.S. pressures.

In this conversation, Dr. Ryan Berg, the Director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, shares insights on China's burgeoning influence in Latin America. He discusses how China views the region as crucial for its economic ambitions, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative. Dr. Berg highlights the contrasting approaches between U.S. strategic neglect and China's proactive engagement. He also examines public perceptions of China post-COVID and Xi Jinping's recent trip, marking a new era of competitive dynamics in Latin American partnerships.

Ivan Kanapathy, a Senior VP at Beacon Global Strategies and former National Security Council director, discusses the implications of a potential second Trump administration on U.S.-China relations. He emphasizes continuity in Trump's approach, highlighting strategies to counter China's aggression and maintain U.S. alliances. Kanapathy applauds Trump's tariffs as effective for diversifying imports and calls for clearer U.S. leadership and deterrence strategies. He also touches on the evolution of alliances like Quad and AUKUS, and the necessity of adapting U.S. policies in the Indo-Pacific.

Rick Waters, Managing Director at Eurasia Group's China practice and former U.S. State Department China policy official, shares insights on China's perspective of a potential second Trump administration. He discusses how China viewed the first term as two phases—initially transactional, later marked by tension over COVID-19. Waters highlights China's anticipation of U.S. moves and assesses implications of Republican dominance in Congress. He also explores the evolving geopolitical landscape involving Taiwan, North Korea, and NATO's presence in the Indo-Pacific.

Jon Czin, a prominent foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution, delves into the complexities of leadership decision-making within China. He highlights the surprising concentration of power under Xi Jinping, explored through a humanistic lens. Czin contrasts Xi's unique leadership style with that of his predecessors, discussing his focus on internal corruption and governance challenges. He also touches on how domestic issues influence China's foreign policy and its rising stature as a geopolitical force, particularly in light of U.S. dynamics and upcoming elections.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Taylor Fravel, Dr. George Gilboy, and Dr. Eric Heginbotham join us to discuss their recent article assessing China's defense budget. They challenge widely cited figures that estimate China's defense spending at $700 billion and provide an apples-to-apples analysis based on purchasing power parity. They assess China's defense spending is around $470 billion, about one-third of the U.S. defense budget, and detail what categories they included and excluded. The conversation explores the analytical shortcomings of current estimates, emphasizing the need for appropriate exchange rates and like-for-like item comparisons between China's and the U.S.'s defense budgets. They also discuss China's military priorities and modernization efforts and key factors that may determine the future trajectory of Chinese defense spending.   Dr. M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and director of the Security Studies Program at MIT, specializing in international security with a focus on China and East Asia. He is the author of Strong Borders, Secure Nation and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949, with numerous publications in leading journals like International Security and Foreign Affairs. A Rhodes Scholar and Andrew Carnegie Fellow, he holds degrees from Middlebury, Stanford, LSE, and Oxford. Fravel also serves on the board of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and leads the Maritime Awareness Project.  Dr. George J. Gilboy is a senior fellow at the Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). George concurrently heads Woodside Energy’s Tokyo office. From 2013 to 2018, George was chief economist and vice president of business environment in Perth, leading Woodside’s corporate forecasting team. George lived and worked in China from 1994 to 2013 in roles with Woodside, Shell, Cambridge Energy Research, and Tsinghua University. George holds a BA from Boston College and a PhD in political economy from MIT.  Dr. Eric Heginbotham is a principal research scientist at MIT’s Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues. Before joining MIT, he was a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he led research projects on China, Japan, and regional security issues and regularly briefed senior military, intelligence, and political leaders. Prior to that he was a senior fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. After graduating from Swarthmore College, Heginbotham earned his PhD in political science from MIT. He is fluent in Chinese and Japanese and was a captain in the US Army Reserve. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor joins us to discuss the evolving relationship between Russia and China. Dr. Kendall-Taylor discusses the broader geopolitical factors driving Russia’s desire to strengthen ties with China. She analyzes Russia’s increasing dependence on China in the context of its war in Ukraine, and recent reports that China may be providing lethal aid to Russia. Dr. Kendall-Taylor also explores the dynamics between Putin and Xi, highlighting how their close relationship shapes the strategic coordination between the two countries. Finally, Dr. Kendall-Taylor addresses potential challenges for Europe and the United States in responding to this growing alignment.Dr. Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS, specializing in national security issues, particularly regarding Russia, authoritarianism, and the transatlantic alliance. She previously served as deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). She also served as a senior analyst at the CIA, focusing on Russia, autocratic regimes, and democratic decline. Outside CNAS, she is a distinguished practitioner in grand strategy at Yale’s Jackson School, and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Her work has appeared in numerous prominent journals including Journal of Peace Research, Democratization, Journal of Democracy, Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, The Washington Quarterly, and Foreign Policy. She holds a BA from Princeton and a PhD from UCLA. Kendall-Taylor was also a Fulbright scholar in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Dr. Michael Davidson, an expert in energy systems, discusses the evolution of China's energy security over the past decade. He highlights the impact of climate change and the Russian invasion of Ukraine on China's energy priorities. Davidson examines the significant power shortages in 2021 and 2022, which intensified the focus on energy reliability. He also explores the delicate balance between energy security and emission reduction, and how these evolving policies shape China's foreign relations and collaboration opportunities in clean energy.

Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior research scientist and former political science professor specializing in Sino-Russian relations, delves into the nuances of recent China-Russia interactions. She deciphers the implications of the May 2024 Xi-Putin summit and highlights new military exercises that showcase their strategic coordination. Wishnick also discusses the significance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and predicts the future trajectory of Sino-Russian ties amidst rising global tensions.