ChinaPower

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Scott Kennedy joins us to discuss the recent escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and China. Dr. Kennedy starts with laying out the current situation, as it was on April 14th when the podcast was recorded, with the Trump administration placing 145% tariffs on China and China retaliating with roughly 125 % tariffs on the United States. Dr. Kenney notes that this level of escalation is not what many experts expected and explains that many in China believe that the U.S. is using the tariffs to drive the U.S. and China into economic war and to confront and isolate China on all dimensions. Further, he explains that during the first Trump administration, tariffs were used mainly as a negotiation tool, yet in Trump’s second term, it seems tariffs are being used in an attempt to remake the global economic architecture. Dr. Kennedy believes that the tariffs are working to boost China’s international image and the current turbulence in U.S. domestic politics has worked to change domestic opinion in China on the United States. At the same time, China is trying to cast itself as a more predictable international actor. Dr. Kennedy believes that at some point, there will be a deal between the U.S. and China that will lower or remove the reciprocal tariffs. However, this deal will likely be superficial and will not address the key problems in this bilateral relationship.Dr. Scott Kennedy is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A leading authority on Chinese economic policy and U.S.-China commercial relations, Dr. Kennedy has been traveling to China for 37 years. His ongoing areas of focus include China’s innovation drive, Chinese industrial policy, U.S.-China relations, and global economic governance. His articles have appeared in a wide array of policy, popular, and academic venues, including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and China Quarterly. Dr. Kennedy hosts the China Field Notes podcast, which features voices from on the ground in China. From 2000 to 2014, Dr. Kennedy was a professor at Indiana University (IU), where he established the Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business and was the founding academic director of IU’s China Office. Dr. Kennedy received a PhD in political science from George Washington University, an MA from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and a BA from the University of Virginia.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Jeffrey Ding joins us to discuss U.S.-China artificial intelligence (AI) competition and his book, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition. Dr. Ding describes the framework he uses to understand the competition between the US and China on AI and explains that while many assume leading a technological competition comes from developing the next breakthrough invention, it should actually be centered around the diffusion of these technologies throughout their population of users. Technological leadership, therefore, depends on which country can best transfer and spread innovation from its top firms to the entire economy more effectively. Dr. Ding notes that China prioritizes an innovation-centric approach while neglecting broad-based technical and STEM education. He finds that the United States is better positioned than China to adopt and diffuse AI across a broad spectrum of sectors, given that more U.S. training institutions meet a quality baseline compared to China’s. Dr. Ding advises that since the United States is better positioned to diffuse AI technologies throughout its economy, it should focus on “running fast” rather than restricting China’s access to advanced technologies. Finally, Dr. Ding recommends that Washington focus on education policy, widening the base of AI engineers by increasing training sites, supporting public-private partnerships, and helping SMEs develop their AI capabilities.Dr. Jeffrey Ding is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University, and the author of Technology and the Rise of Great Power: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition. Previously, he was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation, sponsored by Stanford's Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. His research has been published or is forthcoming at European Journal of International Security, Foreign Affairs, Review of International Political Economy, and Security Studies, and his work has been cited in The Washington Post, The Financial Times, and other outlets. He also writes a weekly "ChinAI" newsletter, which features translations of Chinese conversations about AI development, to 12,000+ subscribers including the field's leading policymakers, scholars, and journalists. Dr. Ding holds a Ph.D in international relations from Oxford University, where he studied as a Rhodes scholar.

Join Dr. Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow specializing in Chinese military affairs, and Dr. Phil Saunders, director of the INSS Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, as they dissect China’s military ambitions. They discuss the PLA’s evolution under Xi Jinping, its assertive maneuvers in the Indo-Pacific, and challenges like party control and corruption. The experts also examine the implications of China’s nuclear modernization and readiness for a potential Taiwan invasion. Their insights shed light on the future of U.S.-China relations.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Edward Fishman joins us to discuss the evolving landscape of economic warfare and the United States’ strategic use of economic tools against China and other global actors. Drawing from his new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, he explains how sanctions, tariffs, and export controls have become central to great power competition and explores how today’s hyper-globalized economy has created chokepoints—critical areas where one state holds a dominant position, allowing for few alternatives. He examines the most potent weapons in the U.S. economic arsenal, and how their use—or mere threat—can compel adversaries to shift behavior. Mr. Fishman provides an insider’s account of the Trump administration’s economic warfare strategy against China and the rationale behind its approach. He also analyzes China’s dual-track approach to economic warfare, the Biden administration’s use of economic warfare against Russia, and the role of U.S. firms in carrying out Washington’s policies. He concludes with recommendations for how the U.S. can refine its strategy to more effectively compete with China.Edward Fishman is a leading authority on economic statecraft and sanctions. He teaches at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and is a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy. He also advises companies on geopolitical strategy and invests in early-stage technology startups. Previously, he served at the U.S. State Department as a member of the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff, at the Pentagon as an advisor to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and at the U.S. Treasury Department as special assistant to the Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. His writing and analysis are regularly featured by outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, Politico, and NPR. He holds a BA in History from Yale, an MPhil in International Relations from Cambridge, and an MBA from Stanford.

Dr. Kyle Jaros, an expert in urban and regional development, and Dr. Sara Newland, a scholar of local politics in China and Taiwan, discuss the shifting dynamics of U.S.-China subnational diplomacy. They highlight the increasing politicization of local relations, with local officials mirroring national sentiments on Taiwan issues, contributing to rising Sinophobia. Despite these tensions, they note opportunities for cooperation, particularly through university student exchanges. They emphasize the need for continued human-to-human connections and resource education for local leaders.

Dr. Mihaela Papa, a BRICS expert from MIT, dives into the evolving dynamics of the BRICS coalition. She discusses its significance in promoting a multipolar world and the surge of interest from Global South countries. China's leadership role is emphasized, particularly in trade and AI innovation. The conversation also highlights BRICS' de-dollarization efforts and the complexities tied to U.S. relations amidst shifting political landscapes. With her extensive background, Dr. Papa sheds light on how BRICS could reshape global governance.

Dr. Matthew Funaiole and Mr. Brian Hart dive into China's polar ambitions, highlighting its strategic interests in the Arctic and Antarctic. Funaiole discusses the implications of China's new research station in Antarctica, emphasizing its dual-use potential. Hart elaborates on the challenges China faces in forming Arctic partnerships and its cooperation with Russia. Their analysis also underscores the importance of transparency in China's polar operations and the significant implications for U.S. security interests and global governance.

Ely Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, and Michael Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, delve into the U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 China Military Power Report. They analyze advancements within the People’s Liberation Army, highlighting concerns over military spending and nuclear arsenal growth. The discussion also uncovers the impacts of corruption within the PLA and examines evolving Chinese military dynamics, notably regarding Taiwan, the South China Sea, and China-Russia military ties.

Dr. Feng Zhang, a Visiting Scholar at Yale Law School, specializes in Chinese foreign policy and East Asian international relations. He discusses the strained China-North Korea relationship, heavily influenced by North Korea's growing ties with Russia. Dr. Zhang notes that China's influence is waning due to UN sanctions and the pandemic. He highlights China's challenge in navigating these dynamics without provoking Pyongyang further. The conversation delves into the complexities of regional stability and China's cautious approach to North Korean provocations amid rising U.S. pressures.

In this conversation, Dr. Ryan Berg, the Director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, shares insights on China's burgeoning influence in Latin America. He discusses how China views the region as crucial for its economic ambitions, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative. Dr. Berg highlights the contrasting approaches between U.S. strategic neglect and China's proactive engagement. He also examines public perceptions of China post-COVID and Xi Jinping's recent trip, marking a new era of competitive dynamics in Latin American partnerships.