ChinaPower

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Ms. Mona Yacoubian and Mr. Tuvia Gering join us to unpack the latest escalation between Israel and Iran and explore how China is navigating this evolving conflict. They begin by situating the conflict in the aftermath of Hamas’s October 7 attack, which triggered a series of strikes by Iranian-backed militias that eventually led to direct Israel-Iran military confrontations. Ms. Yacoubian outlines how Israeli strikes were timed around a perceived window of Iranian vulnerability and rising concerns over Iran’s nuclear enrichment levels. Mr. Gering describes a significant paradigm shift in Israeli security doctrine after October 7, and the belief that Iranian threats, both nuclear and conventional, have necessitated preemptive action, especially with the current Trump administration’s backing. Ms. Yacoubian highlights the limited material support to Iran from Russia, North Korea, and China, and noted China’s preference to prioritize regional economic ties over military entanglement. Mr. Gering delves into the mixed Chinese domestic debates on Iran and explores unconfirmed reports of potential Chinese arms transfers to Iran. Finally, they assess what these developments may mean for China’s long-term role in Middle East security, including the possibility of a new security architecture that could include both Israel and Iran, and how Iran’s strategic calculations may shift amid growing isolation. Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). She has more than thirty years of experience working on the Middle East and North Africa, with a focus on conflict analysis, governance and stabilization challenges, and conflict prevention. She was previously vice president of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), where she managed field programming in Iraq, Libya, and Tunisia as well as Washington, D.C.–based staff. In 2019, she served as executive director of the congressionally appointed Syria Study Group. From 2014 to 2017, Yacoubian served as deputy assistant administrator in the Middle East Bureau at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), where she had responsibility for programming across Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq. Captain (Res.) Tuvia Gering is a China analyst at Planet Nine, a Tel-Aviv and East Asia-based tech company, a visiting researcher at the Diane & Guilford Glazer Foundation Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and a nonresident fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Previously, he was a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Israeli Chinese Media Center. Gering is the editor and author of Discourse Power on Substack, a newsletter covering leading Chinese perspectives on current affairs, and holds a BA in East Asian studies from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (summa cum laude) and an MPH in disaster and emergency management from Tel Aviv University (summa cum laude).

Meia Nouwens, a Senior Fellow specializing in Chinese security and defense, and Veerle Nouwens, Executive Director for IISS–Asia, delve into insights from the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue. They discuss the significance of cross-regional security issues and hybrid threats, showcasing President Macron's historic speech emphasizing Europe's role in the Indo-Pacific. The conversation also highlights China's shifting focus from the U.S. to regional partnerships, exploring diverse perceptions of China from other nations, along with U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth's reassurances to allies.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Ely Ratner joins us to discuss the case for a defense pact in the Indo-Pacific. Dr. Ratner starts by laying out his argument of why he thinks now is the right time for this type of agreement, discussing that the pact may serve to help maintain stability and deterrence in the region amidst China’s aggressive ambitions to reshape the global order. Dr. Ratner discusses the four countries, U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, that he believes the pact will include to start with and what their responsibilities will be within the pact. He shares that he envisions one of the main features of this partnership to be greater military integration among its members and to serve as a framework to garner the collective power of US allies and partners through a multilateral collective security agreement. Dr. Ratner discusses the viability of the pact and the reasons he thinks there are more opportunities for the pact to be successful now than there was in the past, including greater strategic alignment among the four partner countries, increased intra-Asian cooperation, and the growing reciprocity in U.S. alliances themselves. Dr. Ratner also considers how these different countries may respond to the idea of this pact, especially considering China may react badly to it. He underscores that Beijing is likely to behave badly regardless of this pact and states countries should not turn away from it because of Beijing. Finally, Dr. Ratner underscores how this pact would not require the U.S. to extend new commitments abroad and describes the continuing will and desire he sees from the Trump Administration to continue cooperation and strengthening of alliances in the region. Dr. Ely Ratner is a Principal at The Marathon Initiative, a bipartisan think tank dedicated to preparing the United States for an era of sustained great power competition. He served as the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs from 2021-2025. Prior to confirmation, he was the Director of the DoD China Task Force and a Senior Advisor to China to the Secretary of Defense. Before arriving at the Department of Defense, Dr. Ratner was the Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), where he was a member of the executive team and responsible for managing the Center’s research agenda and staff. Dr. Ratner served from 2015 to 2017 as the Deputy National Security advisor to Vice President Joe Biden, and from 2011 to 2012 in the office of Chinese and Mongolian affairs at the State Department. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.

Dr. Joseph Torigian, a research fellow and author, dives deep into the life of Xi Zhongxun, the father of Xi Jinping, and his monumental influence on China's current political landscape. The discussion reveals how Xi Zhongxun's struggles during the Cultural Revolution fostered values in his son like sacrifice for the greater good. Torigian outlines Xi Zhongxun’s pivotal roles in ethnic policies and Taiwan relations, presenting a lens to understand Xi Jinping's aspirations and his Hobbesian worldview rooted in his father's legacy.

Janka Oertel, Director of Asia Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares her insights on the changing dynamics between Europe and China. She highlights the impact of U.S. policies on the relationship and how competitive pressures from China have strained ties. Oertel discusses Europe's shift towards self-reliance in defense and economic diversification, especially in light of China's support for Russia. She also explores opportunities for collaboration between the EU and the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing the importance of a unified approach to tackle shared challenges.

In this conversation, Matthew Funaiole, a senior fellow at CSIS, and Eric Labs, a senior analyst at the Congressional Budget Office, delve into the stark contrast between U.S. and Chinese shipbuilding capabilities. They discuss how China's industrial growth, fueled by state support, poses significant strategic challenges for the U.S. The duo outlines potential policies to revitalize U.S. shipbuilding, including labor improvements and partnerships with allies. Their insights illuminate urgent concerns over U.S. naval readiness amid a changing global landscape.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Scott Kennedy joins us to discuss the recent escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and China. Dr. Kennedy starts with laying out the current situation, as it was on April 14th when the podcast was recorded, with the Trump administration placing 145% tariffs on China and China retaliating with roughly 125 % tariffs on the United States. Dr. Kennedy notes that this level of escalation is not what many experts expected and explains that many in China believe that the U.S. is using the tariffs to drive the U.S. and China into economic war and to confront and isolate China on all dimensions. Further, he explains that during the first Trump administration, tariffs were used mainly as a negotiation tool, yet in Trump’s second term, it seems tariffs are being used in an attempt to remake the global economic architecture. Dr. Kennedy believes that the tariffs are working to boost China’s international image and the current turbulence in U.S. domestic politics has worked to change domestic opinion in China on the United States. At the same time, China is trying to cast itself as a more predictable international actor. Dr. Kennedy believes that at some point, there will be a deal between the U.S. and China that will lower or remove the reciprocal tariffs. However, this deal will likely be superficial and will not address the key problems in this bilateral relationship.Dr. Scott Kennedy is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A leading authority on Chinese economic policy and U.S.-China commercial relations, Dr. Kennedy has been traveling to China for 37 years. His ongoing areas of focus include China’s innovation drive, Chinese industrial policy, U.S.-China relations, and global economic governance. His articles have appeared in a wide array of policy, popular, and academic venues, including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and China Quarterly. Dr. Kennedy hosts the China Field Notes podcast, which features voices from on the ground in China. From 2000 to 2014, Dr. Kennedy was a professor at Indiana University (IU), where he established the Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business and was the founding academic director of IU’s China Office. Dr. Kennedy received a PhD in political science from George Washington University, an MA from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and a BA from the University of Virginia.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Jeffrey Ding joins us to discuss U.S.-China artificial intelligence (AI) competition and his book, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition. Dr. Ding describes the framework he uses to understand the competition between the US and China on AI and explains that while many assume leading a technological competition comes from developing the next breakthrough invention, it should actually be centered around the diffusion of these technologies throughout their population of users. Technological leadership, therefore, depends on which country can best transfer and spread innovation from its top firms to the entire economy more effectively. Dr. Ding notes that China prioritizes an innovation-centric approach while neglecting broad-based technical and STEM education. He finds that the United States is better positioned than China to adopt and diffuse AI across a broad spectrum of sectors, given that more U.S. training institutions meet a quality baseline compared to China’s. Dr. Ding advises that since the United States is better positioned to diffuse AI technologies throughout its economy, it should focus on “running fast” rather than restricting China’s access to advanced technologies. Finally, Dr. Ding recommends that Washington focus on education policy, widening the base of AI engineers by increasing training sites, supporting public-private partnerships, and helping SMEs develop their AI capabilities.Dr. Jeffrey Ding is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University, and the author of Technology and the Rise of Great Power: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition. Previously, he was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation, sponsored by Stanford's Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. His research has been published or is forthcoming at European Journal of International Security, Foreign Affairs, Review of International Political Economy, and Security Studies, and his work has been cited in The Washington Post, The Financial Times, and other outlets. He also writes a weekly "ChinAI" newsletter, which features translations of Chinese conversations about AI development, to 12,000+ subscribers including the field's leading policymakers, scholars, and journalists. Dr. Ding holds a Ph.D in international relations from Oxford University, where he studied as a Rhodes scholar.

Join Dr. Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow specializing in Chinese military affairs, and Dr. Phil Saunders, director of the INSS Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, as they dissect China’s military ambitions. They discuss the PLA’s evolution under Xi Jinping, its assertive maneuvers in the Indo-Pacific, and challenges like party control and corruption. The experts also examine the implications of China’s nuclear modernization and readiness for a potential Taiwan invasion. Their insights shed light on the future of U.S.-China relations.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Edward Fishman joins us to discuss the evolving landscape of economic warfare and the United States’ strategic use of economic tools against China and other global actors. Drawing from his new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, he explains how sanctions, tariffs, and export controls have become central to great power competition and explores how today’s hyper-globalized economy has created chokepoints—critical areas where one state holds a dominant position, allowing for few alternatives. He examines the most potent weapons in the U.S. economic arsenal, and how their use—or mere threat—can compel adversaries to shift behavior. Mr. Fishman provides an insider’s account of the Trump administration’s economic warfare strategy against China and the rationale behind its approach. He also analyzes China’s dual-track approach to economic warfare, the Biden administration’s use of economic warfare against Russia, and the role of U.S. firms in carrying out Washington’s policies. He concludes with recommendations for how the U.S. can refine its strategy to more effectively compete with China.Edward Fishman is a leading authority on economic statecraft and sanctions. He teaches at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and is a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy. He also advises companies on geopolitical strategy and invests in early-stage technology startups. Previously, he served at the U.S. State Department as a member of the Secretary of State’s Policy Planning Staff, at the Pentagon as an advisor to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and at the U.S. Treasury Department as special assistant to the Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. His writing and analysis are regularly featured by outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, Politico, and NPR. He holds a BA in History from Yale, an MPhil in International Relations from Cambridge, and an MBA from Stanford.