China’s Quest for Military Supremacy: A Conversation with Dr. Joel Wuthnow and Dr. Phil Saunders
Mar 13, 2025
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Join Dr. Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow specializing in Chinese military affairs, and Dr. Phil Saunders, director of the INSS Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, as they dissect China’s military ambitions. They discuss the PLA’s evolution under Xi Jinping, its assertive maneuvers in the Indo-Pacific, and challenges like party control and corruption. The experts also examine the implications of China’s nuclear modernization and readiness for a potential Taiwan invasion. Their insights shed light on the future of U.S.-China relations.
The People's Liberation Army has entered a 'new era' under Xi Jinping, marked by increased confidence and military modernization efforts.
Recent PLA live-fire exercises around Australia and New Zealand illustrate China's assertive military posture and its aim to influence Indo-Pacific security dynamics.
Deep dives
Transformation of the PLA under Xi Jinping
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone significant transformation in recent years, largely driven by Xi Jinping's leadership since he assumed power in 2012. This period, often referred to as a 'new era', is characterized by an increased confidence and assertiveness in military operations, as seen in the PLA's responses to events like Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022. The PLA has not only enhanced its capabilities through modernization efforts, such as developing advanced aircraft carriers and joint strike operations, but also restructured its organization to improve operational efficiency and jointness among its various branches. This evolution aligns with Xi's ambition to establish the PLA as a formidable force, both for national defense and to project Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Implications of Military Exercises
Recent military exercises conducted by the PLA, particularly around Australia and New Zealand, demonstrate China's growing assertiveness and capabilities in projecting power beyond its immediate territorial waters. The large-scale, unilateral live-fire drills signify a willingness to challenge traditional assumptions about regional security and to test the boundaries of military engagement with neighboring countries. These exercises are seen as a means of intimidation, simultaneously signaling military strength while re-engaging in diplomatic discussions, underscoring a dual-edged approach to foreign policy. Such activities illustrate how the PLA aims to reshape the security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific by asserting its presence and capabilities in areas that were previously less accessible.
Nuclear Modernization and Regional Security
China's rapid advancement in nuclear capabilities has shifted its strategic posture, aiming to create a nuclear shield that deters not only nuclear attacks but also conventional interventions by the United States and its allies. This new perspective on nuclear weapons suggests an evolving rationale where an expanded nuclear arsenal may influence U.S. decision-making regarding intervention in regional conflicts, such as a potential conflict over Taiwan. The implications of this modernization raise substantial concerns about the escalation risks of conventional conflicts potentially transitioning into nuclear disputes, particularly given China’s no-first-use policy. As the U.S. navigates its own military strategies in response to China’s growing nuclear capabilities, this dynamic complicates the broader security landscape in the Indo-Pacific.
Challenges of Decision-Making in the PLA
The decision-making structure within the PLA, characterized by a dual command system, presents significant challenges for rapid response in combat situations. Commanders often face delays in action due to the necessity of consensus with political commissars, which can hinder timely and effective leadership during crises. The emphasis on political indoctrination may detract from operational proficiency, as resources are diverted to political education rather than tactical training. This organizational culture, while intended to maintain loyalty to the Communist Party, could lead to inefficiencies and weaken China's military effectiveness in unexpected or dynamic conflict scenarios.
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Joel Wuthnow and Dr. Phil Saunders join us to discuss their new book on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA): “China’s Quest for Military Supremacy.” They begin by explaining the motivations behind their book and the growing demand for a comprehensive resource on the PLA among students, policymakers, and defense practitioners. Dr. Wuthnow then outlines how the PLA has entered a “new era” under Xi Jinping, characterized by greater confidence, structural reforms, and an expanding operational reach. Dr. Saunders then highlights how the PLA is increasingly being used to shape the Indo-Pacific region, citing China’s recent live-fire exercises near Australia and New Zealand as an example of its more assertive posture. Both experts also delve into key challenges facing the PLA, from Xi Jinping’s efforts to tighten party control to persistent corruption and political reliability issues. They also assess how the PLA’s rigid command structure and political indoctrination could undermine effectiveness in a crisis. Finally, the two experts assess the PLA’s progress becoming more joint, its nuclear modernization efforts, and the broader implications for U.S. and regional security. They conclude by discussing their views on how a second Trump administration could impact PLA behavior and China's strategic calculations.
Dr. Joel Wuthnow is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. His research areas include Chinese foreign and security policy, Chinese military affairs, U.S.-China relations, and strategic developments in East Asia. In addition to his duties in INSS, he also serves as an adjunct professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
Dr. Phillip C. Saunders is Director of the INSS Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs. Dr. Saunders previously worked at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, where he served as Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program from 1999-2003. He also serves as an adjunct instructor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
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