China-North Korea Evolving Relations: A Conversation with Dr. Feng Zhang
Dec 19, 2024
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Dr. Feng Zhang, a Visiting Scholar at Yale Law School, specializes in Chinese foreign policy and East Asian international relations. He discusses the strained China-North Korea relationship, heavily influenced by North Korea's growing ties with Russia. Dr. Zhang notes that China's influence is waning due to UN sanctions and the pandemic. He highlights China's challenge in navigating these dynamics without provoking Pyongyang further. The conversation delves into the complexities of regional stability and China's cautious approach to North Korean provocations amid rising U.S. pressures.
China's influence over North Korea is diminishing, primarily due to the deepening military alliance between North Korea and Russia.
Despite striving for regional stability, China is increasingly concerned about North Korea's provocative actions and its growing independence from Beijing.
Deep dives
Diminishing Chinese Influence over North Korea
Recent developments indicate that China's influence over North Korea is waning, largely due to a strengthening alliance between North Korea and Russia. The signing of a military alliance treaty and North Korea's troop deployment to support Russia in its conflict in Ukraine underscore this shift, suggesting that Pyongyang may not be fully aligning its actions with Beijing. Historically, China's leverage over North Korea has fluctuated, often falling short of expectations due to North Korea's tendency to disregard Chinese preferences, especially regarding critical national interests like nuclear development. This year’s events have starkly highlighted China's diminishing role, revealing that North Korea may now be more inclined to prioritize its relationship with Russia over its long-standing ties to China.
China's Strategic Interests in the Korean Peninsula
China perceives itself as a major power on the Korean Peninsula, emphasizing the importance of maintaining both regional stability and a friendly relationship with North Korea. The primary objectives of China's policy in this area are to ensure denuclearization and uphold regional peace; however, stability often takes precedence in practice. Chinese analysts express concerns that a destabilized North Korea could lead to dire consequences, such as provoking military conflict or a surge of refugees across its borders. Beijing aims to retain control over Pyongyang’s foreign policy to prevent actions that could severely impact Chinese interests, prioritizing a buffer that can mitigate American influence.
Perceptions of North Korea-Russia Relations and Implications for China
The relationship between North Korea and Russia has deepened significantly, with many viewing it as a formal alliance following strategic military agreements. China views this development with concern, as it raises the possibility of an emboldened North Korea acting independently, potentially against Chinese interests. While some argue that the North Korea-Russia relationship could alleviate pressure on China from the U.S., prevailing sentiment within China is that this partnership brings more strategic costs than benefits. This complex dynamic leads to internal debates in Beijing about how best to manage relationships with North Korea and Russia without compromising its broader geopolitical aims.
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Feng Zhang joins us to discuss China-North Korea relations in light of the growing Russia-North Korea relationship and deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia. Dr. Zhang discusses how the China-North Korea relationship has suffered in recent years, in part due to China joining UN sanctions against North Korea in 2016, the COVID-19 pandemic, and North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Dr. Zhang explains that China has a waning influence over North Korea, evidenced most strongly through the recent further alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow. He notes that China still sees itself as a great power on the Korean Peninsula, striving for regional stability to ensure its own national security, but that China struggles to use its economic and diplomatic pressures on North Korea, fearing that it may antagonize Pyongyang against Beijing. Dr. Zhang notes that North Korea is widely viewed in China as an agent of chaos and Beijing does not want to be viewed as a member or leader in the “axis of upheaval” with North Korea, Russia, and Iran. Finally, given China’s rising concerns about North Korean foreign policy and growing North Korea-Russia ties, Dr. Zhang predicts Beijing will try to play a bigger role in working with the incoming Trump Administration and other regional actors to curb North Korea’s provocative behavior.
Dr. Feng Zhang is a Visiting Scholar at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. He previously held positions at Tsinghua University, Murdoch University, and the Australian National University. He specializes in Chinese foreign policy, international relations in East Asia, and international relations theory. He is the author of Chinese Hegemony: Grand Strategy and International Institutions in East Asian History (Stanford, 2015). He co-authored two books with Richard Ned Lebow: Taming Sino-American Rivalry (Oxford, 2020) and Justice and International Order: East and West (Oxford, 2022). His new book on China’s Policy toward Afghanistan since 1949 will be published shortly. His current project examines the causes and management of U.S.-China competition.
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