China-North Korea Evolving Relations: A Conversation with Dr. Feng Zhang

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Dec 19, 2024

Dr. Feng Zhang, a Visiting Scholar at Yale Law School, specializes in Chinese foreign policy and East Asian international relations. He discusses the strained China-North Korea relationship, heavily influenced by North Korea's growing ties with Russia. Dr. Zhang notes that China's influence is waning due to UN sanctions and the pandemic. He highlights China's challenge in navigating these dynamics without provoking Pyongyang further. The conversation delves into the complexities of regional stability and China's cautious approach to North Korean provocations amid rising U.S. pressures.

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INSIGHT

Declining Relations

China-North Korea relations have declined, especially after 2016 UN sanctions and COVID-19.
North Korea's alignment with Russia further strains the relationship, exemplified by a new military alliance and troop deployments.

INSIGHT

Waning Influence

China's influence on North Korea is waning, evident in North Korea's independent decisions like allying with Russia.
Historically, China's influence peaked during the Korean War but has fluctuated since.

INSIGHT

China's Role

China desires regional stability and influence on the Korean Peninsula, wary of outside powers.
A destabilized North Korea poses risks like war, refugee influx, or a hostile nuclear power.

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In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Feng Zhang joins us to discuss China-North Korea relations in light of the growing Russia-North Korea relationship and deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia. Dr. Zhang discusses how the China-North Korea relationship has suffered in recent years, in part due to China joining UN sanctions against North Korea in 2016, the COVID-19 pandemic, and North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Dr. Zhang explains that China has a waning influence over North Korea, evidenced most strongly through the recent further alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow. He notes that China still sees itself as a great power on the Korean Peninsula, striving for regional stability to ensure its own national security, but that China struggles to use its economic and diplomatic pressures on North Korea, fearing that it may antagonize Pyongyang against Beijing. Dr. Zhang notes that North Korea is widely viewed in China as an agent of chaos and Beijing does not want to be viewed as a member or leader in the “axis of upheaval” with North Korea, Russia, and Iran. Finally, given China’s rising concerns about North Korean foreign policy and growing North Korea-Russia ties, Dr. Zhang predicts Beijing will try to play a bigger role in working with the incoming Trump Administration and other regional actors to curb North Korea’s provocative behavior.

Dr. Feng Zhang is a Visiting Scholar at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. He previously held positions at Tsinghua University, Murdoch University, and the Australian National University. He specializes in Chinese foreign policy, international relations in East Asia, and international relations theory. He is the author of Chinese Hegemony: Grand Strategy and International Institutions in East Asian History (Stanford, 2015). He co-authored two books with Richard Ned Lebow: Taming Sino-American Rivalry (Oxford, 2020) and Justice and International Order: East and West (Oxford, 2022). His new book on China’s Policy toward Afghanistan since 1949 will be published shortly. His current project examines the causes and management of U.S.-China competition.